Derek Flint Posted October 4, 2020 Share Posted October 4, 2020 Maybe @wrighty can help, but from what I see, there is a whole different set of factors in play today compared to March? For a start, there are many thousands more tests being done. Furthermore, it does seem that the virus is passing through great swathes of the population with no symptoms manifesting themselves. Until there’s away of antibody testing everybody, we will never know precisely what that percentage is. It appears that in this mass of data, we might be able to say with some certainty which groups are particularly vulnerable and who isn’t. Around that it should be feasible to build an economic model to financially support those at higher risk, perhaps with some sort of UBI, whilst everyone else just gets on with it, presumably building herd immunity. It’s only my observation, but it seems that the UK Government is failing to step back and refocus, simply trying to redeploy tactics that worked to a degree back at the start of all this. Thoughts? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thesultanofsheight Posted October 4, 2020 Share Posted October 4, 2020 (edited) 1 hour ago, thommo2010 said: Can anyone explain why they need to announce anytime there is a new case? The same goes for the uk why the need to announce every day the amount of positive cases? Here it’s to stop the lunatic Facebook speculators spreading rubbish when they hear rumours of a new case. It’s better for government to be upfront as if not a load of loonies get wind of a rumour of a case and then bomb Facebook with hysterical rubbish trying to scare people. Edited October 4, 2020 by thesultanofsheight 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
P.K. Posted October 4, 2020 Share Posted October 4, 2020 1 hour ago, thommo2010 said: Can anyone explain why they need to announce anytime there is a new case? The same goes for the uk why the need to announce every day the amount of positive cases? Because the government of the day has a duty of care towards it's citizens. Therefore it needs to keep folks informed about the lethal pandemic circulating in their midst. Besides which they would get creamed if they didn't and Joe Public found out about it. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wrighty Posted October 4, 2020 Share Posted October 4, 2020 1 hour ago, Derek Flint said: Maybe @wrighty can help, but from what I see, there is a whole different set of factors in play today compared to March? For a start, there are many thousands more tests being done. Furthermore, it does seem that the virus is passing through great swathes of the population with no symptoms manifesting themselves. Until there’s away of antibody testing everybody, we will never know precisely what that percentage is. It appears that in this mass of data, we might be able to say with some certainty which groups are particularly vulnerable and who isn’t. Around that it should be feasible to build an economic model to financially support those at higher risk, perhaps with some sort of UBI, whilst everyone else just gets on with it, presumably building herd immunity. It’s only my observation, but it seems that the UK Government is failing to step back and refocus, simply trying to redeploy tactics that worked to a degree back at the start of all this. Thoughts? If I’m advising the UK government I would suggest a different approach. Here the only question is border strategy, which is discussed elsewhere. The differences between now and March are testing rates, knowledge, behaviours, and perhaps that the most susceptible will have already had it. I think behaviours will have changed, such that whatever government says or doesn’t say, the R value will be less than in early March. Same goes for shielding - the elderly and vulnerable will look after themselves and not rely on government to do so. I think the student situation is ridiculous. My son is currently having to isolate in a house of 5 lads because one of his mates has a sore throat and is awaiting a test. This is nonsense. I support the idea that he should be careful - that’s being socially responsible - but not locked up for 2 weeks, having to rely on ‘student support’ to bring in food parcels etc. I like the concept of UBI - I’ve argued for it even before this coronavirus existed. I was hoping that this crisis would be the thing that started it all off, but it seems not. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beelzebub3 Posted October 4, 2020 Share Posted October 4, 2020 16 minutes ago, wrighty said: If I’m advising the UK government I would suggest a different approach. Here the only question is border strategy, which is discussed elsewhere. The differences between now and March are testing rates, knowledge, behaviours, and perhaps that the most susceptible will have already had it. I think behaviours will have changed, such that whatever government says or doesn’t say, the R value will be less than in early March. Same goes for shielding - the elderly and vulnerable will look after themselves and not rely on government to do so. I think the student situation is ridiculous. My son is currently having to isolate in a house of 5 lads because one of his mates has a sore throat and is awaiting a test. This is nonsense. I support the idea that he should be careful - that’s being socially responsible - but not locked up for 2 weeks, having to rely on ‘student support’ to bring in food parcels etc. I like the concept of UBI - I’ve argued for it even before this coronavirus existed. I was hoping that this crisis would be the thing that started it all off, but it seems not. I believe the "key workers" were involved with the Railways, now there is only one person within the DOI who rules the Railways and can you imagine him taking responsibility for the staff involved, not a chance in hell! by the way why the f""k are we doing anything in these hardened times with an antiquated railway (toys) when we have a war zone on the prom? If I was in charge first thing I would do is stop all but emergency works on the Islands roads including toytown railways and get that promenade mess sorted out, it is an embarrassment or put bluntly a complete f^^k up of monumental porportions. The ball lies at the feet of the CM to get this sorted, he needs to get his fathead out of his ass and forget brexit forget the UK and get our own house in order. 6 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gladys Posted October 4, 2020 Share Posted October 4, 2020 1 hour ago, wrighty said: If I’m advising the UK government I would suggest a different approach. Here the only question is border strategy, which is discussed elsewhere. The differences between now and March are testing rates, knowledge, behaviours, and perhaps that the most susceptible will have already had it. I think behaviours will have changed, such that whatever government says or doesn’t say, the R value will be less than in early March. Same goes for shielding - the elderly and vulnerable will look after themselves and not rely on government to do so. I think the student situation is ridiculous. My son is currently having to isolate in a house of 5 lads because one of his mates has a sore throat and is awaiting a test. This is nonsense. I support the idea that he should be careful - that’s being socially responsible - but not locked up for 2 weeks, having to rely on ‘student support’ to bring in food parcels etc. I like the concept of UBI - I’ve argued for it even before this coronavirus existed. I was hoping that this crisis would be the thing that started it all off, but it seems not. As always, a sane, pragmatic and informed post. I think the treatment of students is absolutely appalling, and will have a lasting negative effect on some individuals. What is UBI? Universal Basic Income? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trmpton Posted October 4, 2020 Share Posted October 4, 2020 (edited) Ok. So I haven’t read the thread up to date. People will be along shortly to tell us to grow up and that we can go across if we need to and that we “only have to isolate for 14 days” but guess what. We both work and neither are in a position to do that. My wife has just spent most of the morning crying her eyes out and telling me she wants to move back to the UK so she can see family and friends. I am Manx and my family and friends are mainly here although I do normally travel regularly to see others who are dotted around England Scotland and Wales. She has lived here less than three years and her family and close friends (people she has known a lifetime, rather than the close friends she has made here in the last couple of years) are mainly in the northeast of England and South Wales. In “normal” times we are off island most weekends and while this current situation is making things hard for me it is having a real and significant impact on her mental health to the extent that she wants to relocate. In the short term we have agreed that she put in her notice at work tomorrow and head back to the UK for a week to see those she can (subject to local restrictions, especially in wales). I get that lots of people don’t need to travel and it makes no difference to them. I have just checked back over the calendar and in 2019 we made over 100 trips off island between us for work and pleasure. This situation just simply isn’t sustainable. She is really, really unwell this morning due to it and there needs to be a clearly published roadmap back to some workable travel solutions. I might be ranting, as seeing the person you love in pieces when so many people are simply screaming “close the borders” with no alternative plan or understanding that not everyone lives their lives like they do is really starting to wind me up. Edited October 4, 2020 by trmpton 2 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoTail Posted October 4, 2020 Share Posted October 4, 2020 Trmpton, I feel for you and your wife. Fwiw I think our current policy is right, we are allowing a small number of cases to get in, which we can cope with I expect things will improve in 5 to 6 months. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derek Flint Posted October 4, 2020 Share Posted October 4, 2020 14 minutes ago, Gladys said: As always, a sane, pragmatic and informed post. I think the treatment of students is absolutely appalling, and will have a lasting negative effect on some individuals. What is UBI? Universal Basic Income? I agree. Very good reply. yes, UBI is universal basic income. Makes a lot of sense in today’s world Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nom de plume Posted October 4, 2020 Share Posted October 4, 2020 We’ve had this nonsense for 8 months now, time to flip it. Isolate all the curtain twitches & let us (those that want to work, see family & travel) crack on. Seems the perfect solution. 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
monasqueen Posted October 4, 2020 Share Posted October 4, 2020 3 minutes ago, NoTail said: Trmpton, I feel for you and your wife. Fwiw I think our current policy is right, we are allowing a small number of cases to get in, which we can cope with I expect things will improve in 5 to 6 months. I agree, but that is no consolation for someone who very genuinely gets "rock fever". This is very real for some people, and has caused many a couple to give up on island life and disappear off to a bigger landmass. We are lucky. We both moved here from choice, and spent a good few years assisting the economy by working here. Now we have retired, neither of us has any wish to move back across, particularly while that place across is in such a mess. We do have family across, and it is very hard not being able to go and visit. That's where the telephone comes in. We do miss our regular trips away, but none of them are worth 14 days isolation on return. On balance we recognise when we are well off. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trmpton Posted October 4, 2020 Share Posted October 4, 2020 6 minutes ago, monasqueen said: I agree, but that is no consolation for someone who very genuinely gets "rock fever". This is very real for some people, and has caused many a couple to give up on island life and disappear off to a bigger landmass. We are lucky. We both moved here from choice, and spent a good few years assisting the economy by working here. Now we have retired, neither of us has any wish to move back across, particularly while that place across is in such a mess. We do have family across, and it is very hard not being able to go and visit. That's where the telephone comes in. We do miss our regular trips away, but none of them are worth 14 days isolation on return. On balance we recognise when we are well off. If I didn’t have three kids here with my ex we would both be off somewhere else. It’s really beyond a joke now. The risks are minuscule and it feels like the whole world (presumably with the exception of the less developed countries who we never hear about, who in fact make up a huge percentage of the global population, who I assume are largely cracking on as normal as I can’t imagine there is much social distancing in Tibet or Mongolia or Ethiopia) is on hold waiting for one government to be brave enough to make the decision to just return to normal. We are in an incredibly fortunate situation where we can handle this a bit differently. We are surrounded by water and have (unintentionally) managed to become “Covid free”. We could be the envy of the world and develop a well thought out and reasoned roadmap to return to a near normal life. We have access to exceptional technology through several world leading local businesses, but instead appear to be afraid to do anything to move forward for fear of losing our totally unsustainable “Covid free” badge. It’s a joke. We could be the envy of the world, instead we are becoming a laughing stock and losing residents hand over fist as jokes like the welders being sent to prison for wearing masks in Tesco hit the UK press. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Out of the blue Posted October 4, 2020 Share Posted October 4, 2020 13 minutes ago, trmpton said: If I didn’t have three kids here with my ex we would both be off somewhere else. It’s really beyond a joke now. The risks are minuscule and it feels like the whole world (presumably with the exception of the less developed countries who we never hear about, who in fact make up a huge percentage of the global population, who I assume are largely cracking on as normal as I can’t imagine there is much social distancing in Tibet or Mongolia or Ethiopia) is on hold waiting for one government to be brave enough to make the decision to just return to normal. We are in an incredibly fortunate situation where we can handle this a bit differently. We are surrounded by water and have (unintentionally) managed to become “Covid free”. We could be the envy of the world and develop a well thought out and reasoned roadmap to return to a near normal life. We have access to exceptional technology through several world leading local businesses, but instead appear to be afraid to do anything to move forward for fear of losing our totally unsustainable “Covid free” badge. It’s a joke. We could be the envy of the world, instead we are becoming a laughing stock and losing residents hand over fist as jokes like the welders being sent to prison for wearing masks in Tesco hit the UK press. We will be at 3a before xmas so this will enable family to travel here, and currently we can go across now. The issue is the isolation period. To make any travel practical for the masses this is what needs serious tweaking, but unless there is a breakthrough with testing, any loosening of isolation will be reliant on the government becoming less risk averse. Unlikely. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Dog's Dangly Bits Posted October 4, 2020 Share Posted October 4, 2020 3 hours ago, P.K. said: Because the government of the day has a duty of care towards it's citizens. Therefore it needs to keep folks informed about the lethal pandemic circulating in their midst. Besides which they would get creamed if they didn't and Joe Public found out about it. If they had a duty of care then why are they allowing so many people to die of other things? Why not keep them informed on those? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Banker Posted October 4, 2020 Share Posted October 4, 2020 16 minutes ago, Out of the blue said: We will be at 3a before xmas so this will enable family to travel here, and currently we can go across now. The issue is the isolation period. To make any travel practical for the masses this is what needs serious tweaking, but unless there is a breakthrough with testing, any loosening of isolation will be reliant on the government becoming less risk averse. Unlikely. Well with HOK back soon at least there will be some proper scrutiny of decisions with evidence produced to show rationale Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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