IOM Covid removing restrictions

[Banker]

5 minutes ago, Derek Flint said:

I’d like to know the visit profile of the two returnees that tested positive, and compare it to others.

 

We were over for seven days and managed not to (symptomatically) catch it. We had a large number of meetings, all socially distanced, didn’t eat out, stayed with a relative. Crucially, we weren’t in contact with anyone we didn’t know for more than 15 minutes.

Not sure visit profile matters too much, I spent several days in Liverpool in a hotel, ate out 4 times with close family. As long as you take precautions as suggested , avoid crowds and don’t sit in busy pubs by groups of students I didn’t feel there was much risk.

[wrighty]

Interesting article on risk of dying of covid in today’s BMJ, by David Spiegelhalter. He’s quantifying the risk of dying of covid as a multiple of risk of normal living. 
 

Example. In the 16 weeks he’s looked at, there were 1283 covid deaths in my 45-54 age group. This is a rate of 15.8/100000. You’d expect 6449 deaths in that age group in the same period in a normal year. So the covid death risk during that time was the same for me as 22 days of normal risk. 
 

Figures for other age groups are similar - even if you’re in your 80s the risk of dying from covid was the same as the risk of dying in about 40 days. 
 

I think this nicely puts things into perspective. I’m not particularly worried about dying in the next 22 days - it might happen of course, but I doubt it - so I shouldn’t be worried about dying of covid (which I’m not, by the way)
 

I should just clarify - these risks are not the risk of dying of covid if you get it, they’re the risk of dying of covid during the first wave of the pandemic. At least if I’m reading it correctly. 

[Roger Mexico]

13 minutes ago, P.K. said:

I love the way the prisoner is "self-isolating!"

The Isle of Man....

It certainly highlights how meaningless the phrase is.  It basically seems to mean: "He's on his own - on his own!". 

Incidentally if the number of active cases is four, it must mean that the one announced on Saturday "who recently travelled to the Island". must be the prisoner.  There was another one on Friday "who became symptomatic during their self-isolation", plus the latest two.

[The Dog's Dangly Bits]

35 minutes ago, Roger Mexico said:

Not in the prison either by the look of it:

(my bold). The prison one announced separately earlier on.

This is what you would expect of course.  The higher rate in the UK means that those coming from there are more likely to be infected.  Of course that means we should be tightening up regulations on those coming in not relaxing them.

Not necessarily. 

That's only if you're of the mentality that one case is one case too many.

Having some Covid cases is really no big deal.  

[Roger Mexico]

21 minutes ago, The Dog's Dangly Bits said:

Not necessarily. 

That's only if you're of the mentality that one case is one case too many.

Having some Covid cases is really no big deal.  

Actually it is - particularly if you have managed to eliminate it in the community.  The problem is that there's no way of having a little bit of this epidemic - it either explodes or it dies out[1].  Nowhere seems to have kept numbers at a low level for a prolonged period.  Either you get a second wave if restraints are removed or you eliminate it and then do the same for subsequent infections.  The Isle of Man is lucky enough to be in the second, not very big, group.

 

[1]  Obviously this ignores quarantined cases from arrivals.

[thesultanofsheight]

44 minutes ago, Roger Mexico said:

Incidentally if the number of active cases is four, it must mean that the one announced on Saturday "who recently travelled to the Island". must be the prisoner.  There was another one on Friday "who became symptomatic during their self-isolation", plus the latest two.

Yes it’s building up a nice head of steam now judging by the increase in overt Facebook hysteria in the last 48 hours. When the first community case happens (as it will) it really is going to be a spectacular blow off of mass hysteria. They’ll all be working from home until 2025 at least and demanding that the boats are scuppered in the bay just in case anyone ever wants to come here again. 

Edited October 5, 2020 by thesultanofsheight

[The Dog's Dangly Bits]

5 minutes ago, Roger Mexico said:

Actually it is - particularly if you have managed to eliminate it in the community.  The problem is that there's no way of having a little bit of this epidemic - it either explodes or it dies out[1].  Nowhere seems to have kept numbers at a low level for a prolonged period.  Either you get a second wave if restraints are removed or you eliminate it and then do the same for subsequent infections.  The Isle of Man is lucky enough to be in the second, not very big, group.

 

[1]  Obviously this ignores quarantined cases from arrivals.

Jersey have managed to have comparatively significant movement in and out and had a minor amount of cases.  It is perfectly possible.

Your original comment was about tightening up, not relaxing.  Clearly this is wrong unless you fall into the category I mentioned.  Jersey have proved the point.

Edited October 5, 2020 by The Dog's Dangly Bits

[Banker]

Obviously if you test more people you get more cases like UK. Jersey have had 110 cases from 105,000 since borders opened a positive rate of 0.1%. I think we’ve had 5 or 6 from c 3000 tests in last 2 months so rate of 0.16% so similar.

i think if we were testing on arrival whether quarantine or not we would get a lot more cases so I suppose it keeps a lot happy by keeping cases lower.

[Roger Mexico]

1 minute ago, The Dog's Dangly Bits said:

Jersey have managed to have comparatively significant movement in and out and had a minor amount of cases.  It is perfectly possible.

You original comment was about tightening up, not relaxing.  Clearly this is wrong unless you fall into the category I mentioned.  Jersey have proved the point.

But Jersey have tightened up.  By moving areas and countries to Red coming from where people need to self-isolate for 14 days, no matter what the tests say, they are tightening not relaxing.  It's a perfectly sensible response to a change in circumstances, even though I may not agree with every detail.

I'm also pretty sure that the virus currently isn't in the community in Jersey at the moment.  The only increases in the categories of the infected are those from testing on arrival or (occasionally) those from 'contact tracing', which I suspect are those in isolation (ie developed it later after testing negative on arrival).  There looks like to have been a few minor community 'outbreaks' since July involving only a few people each time, but nothing recently.  But the virus hasn't constantly been in the community.

[TheTeapot]

 

[Banker]

11 minutes ago, TheTeapot said:

 

And?

[The Dog's Dangly Bits]

12 minutes ago, Roger Mexico said:

But Jersey have tightened up.  By moving areas and countries to Red coming from where people need to self-isolate for 14 days, no matter what the tests say, they are tightening not relaxing.  It's a perfectly sensible response to a change in circumstances, even though I may not agree with every detail.

I'm also pretty sure that the virus currently isn't in the community in Jersey at the moment.  The only increases in the categories of the infected are those from testing on arrival or (occasionally) those from 'contact tracing', which I suspect are those in isolation (ie developed it later after testing negative on arrival).  There looks like to have been a few minor community 'outbreaks' since July involving only a few people each time, but nothing recently.  But the virus hasn't constantly been in the community.

The Isle of Man could comfortably change a couple of things that would loosen things and make very little material difference.  Firstly after a clear test result on day 7 then no conditions on movement. Secondly, allow some sort of extension to visitors in relation to immediate family.  That is loosening restrictions in our case without material risk.

[Roger Mexico]

32 minutes ago, The Dog's Dangly Bits said:

The Isle of Man could comfortably change a couple of things that would loosen things and make very little material difference.  Firstly after a clear test result on day 7 then no conditions on movement. Secondly, allow some sort of extension to visitors in relation to immediate family.  That is loosening restrictions in our case without material risk.

But Jersey only has fewer restrictions on those who have had a clear test because there are already more restrictions on the population as a whole.  You're basically suggesting that everyone on the Island should go back to mask-wearing and social distancing just to suit a small number of people for a few days, who would also have to abide by those restrictions.

Incidentally Jersey are also tightening up here: From 23:59 Monday 12 October, passengers arriving with a green travel status must isolate until they receive a negative test result.

Family member visits will only work if they can self-isolate properly, so unless it's for a long visit there doesn't seem much point.  The rules about self-isolating within households are already too loose and probably only working because the travellers are being more scrupulous than the rule-makers.  If opened up, effectively those coming will have to be more like temporary residents than visitors.

[Utah 01]

50 minutes ago, Banker said:

And?

Exactly right - if they had bad colds would anyone bat an eyelid?  Of course not.

It is the 'terror factor' that governments have allowed to flourish via MSM, with decreasing validity, that continues to uphold CV as the doomsday bug when it is nothing of the sort to 99.5% of the population.

[Apple]

Channel 4  news, and others, reporting how the test track and trace system has gone awry in the UK and some 48,000 people may have been exposed but do not know anything about it.

Hancock says it should not have happened and apparently it is down to not enough space on an excel spread sheet. Seems to be pointing the finger at Public Health UK.

Scottish professor earlier makes the point that if we had a more effective test track and trace system with isolation then we would not be needing the lockdowns and restrictions currently 'enjoyed' in Leicester, Liverpool and Manchester.

How soon before a test track and trace app becomes compulsory, with an inbuilt tracker to keep an eye on those tested. All in the same control room no doubt, not that any respectable health service would share any health related information with the bobbies, oh no sir.