Ham_N_Eggs Posted October 9, 2020 Share Posted October 9, 2020 1 minute ago, TheTeapot said: The independent SAGE group has some things to say about herd immunity. Worth checking it out. That it's clearly bollocks without a vaccine? 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
P.K. Posted October 9, 2020 Share Posted October 9, 2020 18 minutes ago, The Dog's Dangly Bits said: You would surely only bin off the 7 day test if it had resulted in a decent uptick in passengers arriving and you thought by removing it then a decrease in passenger arrivals would follow? You might think that but does Mr Quayle? You know, the person actually making these decisions who you would hope, as I have said several times recently, would have informed science underpinning his decisions rather than trying to massage the figures that those on here are accusing him of.... 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTeapot Posted October 9, 2020 Share Posted October 9, 2020 (edited) https://twitter.com/IndependentSage/status/1314554066614222851?s=19 Edited October 9, 2020 by TheTeapot Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thesultanofsheight Posted October 9, 2020 Share Posted October 9, 2020 (edited) 3 minutes ago, P.K. said: You might think that but does Mr Quayle? You know, the person actually making these decisions who you would hope, as I have said several times recently, would have informed science underpinning his decisions rather than trying to massage the figures that those on here are accusing him of.... Rachel Glover has already said he or anyone else didn’t consult with the scientists before the announcement. Rant on though crazy man. Have you started early? Edited October 9, 2020 by thesultanofsheight Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Dog's Dangly Bits Posted October 9, 2020 Share Posted October 9, 2020 2 minutes ago, P.K. said: You might think that but does Mr Quayle? You know, the person actually making these decisions who you would hope, as I have said several times recently, would have informed science underpinning his decisions rather than trying to massage the figures that those on here are accusing him of.... That's the problem here - he has given no logical explanation to the removal of the 7 day test. Like I said above, if there was some statistics supplied about the effects of bringing in the 7 day test and the logic for removing it then you could at least understand the reasoning. But given they can't or won't do that then it can only be about artificially keeping positive results low. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
P.K. Posted October 9, 2020 Share Posted October 9, 2020 Just now, The Dog's Dangly Bits said: That's the problem here - he has given no logical explanation to the removal of the 7 day test. Like I said above, if there was some statistics supplied about the effects of bringing in the 7 day test and the logic for removing it then you could at least understand the reasoning. But given they can't or won't do that then it can only be about artificially keeping positive results low. Once again that's what I would like to know. As far as I can tell there must be a reason to keep the activities of those who have had a negative test on Day 7 restricted. The only reason I can think of is the learning curve we have all been having this year indicates that there is still a level of risk involved with the Day 7 test strategy. So if the R number rises in the North of England, a likely source of folks wanting to travel to the island, then the more folks wanting to travel to the island will be bringing the virus with them. So to maintain your level of security you either have to reduce the numbers coming over or tighten up on the restrictions on entry or both. It's just commonsense. But I would still like to see the level of risk in percentage terms... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
P.K. Posted October 9, 2020 Share Posted October 9, 2020 8 minutes ago, Roxanne said: If he worked for me I'd fire him. You can't fire Le Grand Fromage... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Dog's Dangly Bits Posted October 9, 2020 Share Posted October 9, 2020 3 minutes ago, P.K. said: Once again that's what I would like to know. As far as I can tell there must be a reason to keep the activities of those who have had a negative test on Day 7 restricted. The only reason I can think of is the learning curve we have all been having this year indicates that there is still a level of risk involved with the Day 7 test strategy. So if the R number rises in the North of England, a likely source of folks wanting to travel to the island, then the more folks wanting to travel to the island will be bringing the virus with them. So to maintain your level of security you either have to reduce the numbers coming over or tighten up on the restrictions on entry or both. It's just commonsense. But I would still like to see the level of risk in percentage terms... surely what you actually need to see is if the 7 day test introduction actually saw a meaningful increase in visitors to the island? If it didn't then there is no reason to remove it. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
P.K. Posted October 9, 2020 Share Posted October 9, 2020 1 minute ago, The Dog's Dangly Bits said: surely what you actually need to see is if the 7 day test introduction actually saw a meaningful increase in visitors to the island? If it didn't then there is no reason to remove it. I would prefer to think that the rise in infections in the UK prompted it. Because I can't see how you can predict how big the rise in numbers would be that's purely down to the Day 7 test strategy. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thesultanofsheight Posted October 9, 2020 Share Posted October 9, 2020 2 minutes ago, P.K. said: I would prefer to think that the rise in infections in the UK prompted it. You’d prefer to think lots of things. It doesn’t make them true does it? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
P.K. Posted October 9, 2020 Share Posted October 9, 2020 4 minutes ago, thesultanofsheight said: You’d prefer to think lots of things. It doesn’t make them true does it? In our democracies it's innocent until proven guilty. You have heard of this, yes? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Banker Posted October 9, 2020 Share Posted October 9, 2020 10 minutes ago, P.K. said: I would prefer to think that the rise in infections in the UK prompted it. Because I can't see how you can predict how big the rise in numbers would be that's purely down to the Day 7 test strategy. There is no evidence, Howie just did it without consultation. Here’s Rachel Glover’s tweet Honestly, it would have been nice if COMIN/ @IOMGovernment had given us the heads up. Or asked us about the statistics and risks associated with day 7 testing. It's not like we don't do this professionally for a living. Reading "papers" are not a substitute for professional advice Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Dog's Dangly Bits Posted October 9, 2020 Share Posted October 9, 2020 14 minutes ago, P.K. said: I would prefer to think that the rise in infections in the UK prompted it. Because I can't see how you can predict how big the rise in numbers would be that's purely down to the Day 7 test strategy. The rise in the uk covid cases is irrelevant if the actions taken here make no difference to the numbers entering. It's pretty basic stuff. You could argue the action of removing the 7 day test actually increases the likelihood of more covid cases on island and into the community. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Non-Believer Posted October 9, 2020 Share Posted October 9, 2020 Rachel's busy tapping nails into her professional coffin questioning the wisdom of such Govt edicts.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Dog's Dangly Bits Posted October 9, 2020 Share Posted October 9, 2020 it would actually be a great question for someone like Chris Thomas to ask in Tynwald: Could the government confirm a break down of weekly visitors/entrants into the island in the 6 weeks leading up to the 7 day test being brought in (to be split down by segment of key worker or not etc) and the follow x weeks including the total number and split of those. I would be VERY surprised if the change to 7 day testing prompted a material increase in visitors. Assuming it didn't then this removal is simply done in a belief that less positive covid tests will materialise. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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