IOM Covid removing restrictions

[Albert Tatlock]

9 hours ago, piebaps said:

You get nothing in this game for two in a bed

I got a divorce.

[Golfer]

Pubs open in guernsey! 

https://www.itv.com/news/channel/2020-06-01/cheers-guernsey-becomes-first-place-in-british-isles-to-open-pubs/?fbclid=IwAR1xXnZpv-Ejp8pVS9Tbcog1XvYSzcCg9u7FX1sCltvM3bPdbJTqmfV0AeQ

[Bombay Bad Boy]

Guernsey doesn't have a Mcdonalds

[Out of the blue]

1 hour ago, Golfer said:

Pubs open in guernsey! 

https://www.itv.com/news/channel/2020-06-01/cheers-guernsey-becomes-first-place-in-british-isles-to-open-pubs/?fbclid=IwAR1xXnZpv-Ejp8pVS9Tbcog1XvYSzcCg9u7FX1sCltvM3bPdbJTqmfV0AeQ

I looked at the link, but my attention was drawn to the 5 attempted suicides due to the financial impact of the lockdown. There will be many hidden consequences to the lockdown that flow far beyond the headline Covid deaths. Very sad. 

[Black Mirror]

The Swedish coronavirus strategy has succeeded. The first graph below speaks for itself. The graph is available on Wikipedia and from this website:
https://www.folkhalsomyndigheten.se/smittskydd-beredskap/utbrott/aktuella-utbrott/covid-19/bekraftade-fall-i-sverige/

Since Sweden never did much lockdown, the disappearance of the virus there can only be due to herd immunity having kicked in.

The virus is also disappearing fast from London, as shown by the second graph. In London, New York and Stockholm the pandemic has faded away quickly once antibodies seroprevalence in the population has reached the 20% threshold, regardless of the lockdown policy (or lack thereof). Recent papers have provided an explanation of what has happened in those cities:

1) 40-60% of people who had never been exposed to Covid-19 have effective T cell response to Covid-19 due to T-cell cross-reactivity with common seasonal coronaviruses (the common “cold”). In layman terms, half of us have preexisting natural immunity to Covid-19 and thus have no reaction to it (for specific antibodies to show up some kind of illness is needed, even a mild one). This is the paper:
“Different pattern of pre-existing SARS-COV-2 specific T cell immunity in SARS-recovered and uninfected individuals”
https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.05.26.115832v1

2) The reproduction rate R0 of Covid-19 is much higher than initially thought, in the range between 5 and 6. This is the paper:
“COVID-19 May Be Much More Contagious Than We Thought”
https://www.harvardmagazine.com/2020/05/r-nought

The corollary proposition of point (2) is that the virus cannot be stopped; it can only be delayed. In London and New York the lockdown made no difference, the result was practically the same as Stockholm, which did no lockdown.

And it is not just Sweden who faced the pandemic in an adult manner. Sweden had the guts to be open about its intended policy, but there is a whole list of other countries who adopted that strategy. Japan had an entirely voluntary lockdown: no business there was ever shut down, nobody was compelled to stay at home, no restriction of movements, and there was very little effort with the tracing. Switzerland had only a very brief lockdown, a much more liberal form of lockdown than us really, and only for the purpose of allowing some breathing space to their heath care system, and then it opened up everything from the 11th of March, including gyms and indoor sport facilities. Our government has trashed civil liberties and degraded our lives for nothing. The pandemic has shown that Britain is too stupid for democracy.

Where does leaves us in this island? My estimation is that in the Isle of Man we are only one third down the route to herd immunity (according to the above criteria) and thus the Covid-19 problem has not been solved. We basically have two choices: (i) keep the border closed in perpetuity, and see the island destroyed as a business centre (and frankly as a place where to have a life worth living); or (ii) open up the border, bear a second wave, and accept that the lockdown has all been for nothing.

I would hang the graph of (1) to the wall and knock on it the head of our pathetic health minister David Ashford? What is his plan for return to normality? Tell me please.

[Albert Tatlock]

5 hours ago, Out of the blue said:

I looked at the link, but my attention was drawn to the 5 attempted suicides due to the financial impact of the lockdown. There will be many hidden consequences to the lockdown that flow far beyond the headline Covid deaths. Very sad. 

 

[snowman]

I think the steam packet are having a laugh with this

 

 

• No amendment fees - To give you greater flexibility, amendment fees will be waived if you choose to amend your travel dates until later in the year due to COVID-19 Government imposed travel restrictions.
   
• Full refund if booking is cancelled - If your booking needs to be cancelled due to COVID-19 Government imposed travel restrictions we will refund your booking within 30 days.

 

So, if there is a travel ban they'll allow you to change it or refund it. Seriously 

[Dave Hedgehog]

Does anyone know if crisps count as a substantial meal? 

It's for some pub going on the 15th that I may be planning. 

[monasqueen]

Yes. No.

[immortalpuppet]

There’s a couple of food establishments taking their sweet time to serve food outdoors while patrons quench their thirst!

Cheers to them

[Out of the blue]

By god, the government are swift to get into all our lives, but they are proving harder than the pub bore to get rid of. Howie was like a game show host whilst announcing the gradual lifting of more restrictions. You were never invited into our lives, so stop sounding like you are now doing us a favour and just leave us alone now! 

[Golfer]

The teachers will be struggling to think of excuses to keep the kids away from schools at this rate, everything open but you can send your kids to school 2 days a week if they are in certain years!

[Nomadic Raptor]

2 hours ago, Golfer said:

The teachers will be struggling to think of excuses to keep the kids away from schools at this rate, everything open but you can send your kids to school 2 days a week if they are in certain years!

Is that the official line as our school has said naff all to us

[piebaps]

6 minutes ago, Nomadic Raptor said:

Is that the official line as our school has said naff all to us

The official line is here https://covid19.gov.im/general-information/schools-and-nurseries/ Make of it what you will.

Any other questions, contact the relevant head teacher was what Howie said today.

Fnarr fnarr at Head Teacher

[piebaps]

6 hours ago, Black Mirror said:

The Swedish coronavirus strategy has succeeded. The first graph below speaks for itself. The graph is available on Wikipedia and from this website:
https://www.folkhalsomyndigheten.se/smittskydd-beredskap/utbrott/aktuella-utbrott/covid-19/bekraftade-fall-i-sverige/

Since Sweden never did much lockdown, the disappearance of the virus there can only be due to herd immunity having kicked in.

The virus is also disappearing fast from London, as shown by the second graph. In London, New York and Stockholm the pandemic has faded away quickly once antibodies seroprevalence in the population has reached the 20% threshold, regardless of the lockdown policy (or lack thereof). Recent papers have provided an explanation of what has happened in those cities:

1) 40-60% of people who had never been exposed to Covid-19 have effective T cell response to Covid-19 due to T-cell cross-reactivity with common seasonal coronaviruses (the common “cold”). In layman terms, half of us have preexisting natural immunity to Covid-19 and thus have no reaction to it (for specific antibodies to show up some kind of illness is needed, even a mild one). This is the paper:
“Different pattern of pre-existing SARS-COV-2 specific T cell immunity in SARS-recovered and uninfected individuals”
https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.05.26.115832v1

2) The reproduction rate R0 of Covid-19 is much higher than initially thought, in the range between 5 and 6. This is the paper:
“COVID-19 May Be Much More Contagious Than We Thought”
https://www.harvardmagazine.com/2020/05/r-nought

The corollary proposition of point (2) is that the virus cannot be stopped; it can only be delayed. In London and New York the lockdown made no difference, the result was practically the same as Stockholm, which did no lockdown.

And it is not just Sweden who faced the pandemic in an adult manner. Sweden had the guts to be open about its intended policy, but there is a whole list of other countries who adopted that strategy. Japan had an entirely voluntary lockdown: no business there was ever shut down, nobody was compelled to stay at home, no restriction of movements, and there was very little effort with the tracing. Switzerland had only a very brief lockdown, a much more liberal form of lockdown than us really, and only for the purpose of allowing some breathing space to their heath care system, and then it opened up everything from the 11th of March, including gyms and indoor sport facilities. Our government has trashed civil liberties and degraded our lives for nothing. The pandemic has shown that Britain is too stupid for democracy.

Where does leaves us in this island? My estimation is that in the Isle of Man we are only one third down the route to herd immunity (according to the above criteria) and thus the Covid-19 problem has not been solved. We basically have two choices: (i) keep the border closed in perpetuity, and see the island destroyed as a business centre (and frankly as a place where to have a life worth living); or (ii) open up the border, bear a second wave, and accept that the lockdown has all been for nothing.

I would hang the graph of (1) to the wall and knock on it the head of our pathetic health minister David Ashford? What is his plan for return to normality? Tell me please.

Succeeded you say? https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-52903717