P.K. Posted October 13, 2020 Share Posted October 13, 2020 20 minutes ago, TheTeapot said: It's important to get information from a variety of sources, especially when everyone has an agenda. You can't just dismiss things because of where they're published. Thanks to the posters for putting it up. I decided the Telegraph piece was just too long for my limited attention span to cope with.... In any event the author and his opinions minus solutions sounded familiar and so it proved. Face it, you can't sink lower than this: https://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-8597815/Britains-gone-lockdown-la-la-land-says-DR-JOHN-LEE.html 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Out of the blue Posted October 13, 2020 Share Posted October 13, 2020 3 minutes ago, P.K. said: I decided the Telegraph piece was just too long for my limited attention span to cope with.... In any event the author and his opinions minus solutions sounded familiar and so it proved. Face it, you can't sink lower than this: https://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-8597815/Britains-gone-lockdown-la-la-land-says-DR-JOHN-LEE.html As with Brexit, opinions appear to be polarized, in turn leading to political comprise, that in turn leads to restrictions that do not work in terms of health, but also damage the economy. It is a very sad state of affairs. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wrighty Posted October 13, 2020 Share Posted October 13, 2020 2 hours ago, TheTeapot said: "Asymptomatic spread is good". This is bollocks. As usual there's a bit more nuance to this - asymptomatic spread is not necessarily good, nor is the concept necessarily bollocks. Imagine there was a test to identify who would be asymptomatic and who would be severely affected by covid. Organise a party for the first lot, tell the others to hide away for a couple of weeks. Hey presto - herd immunity. The best test we have right now to see if someone will be minimally affected by covid is the date of birth test. Which is why I don't think it's a bad idea that 18-21 year old students all get covid in their first term at uni. You have to shield the elderly and vulnerable though and that is the difficulty. In the absence of a vaccine, the only options seem to be to allow the virus to spread, or to keep everyone locked up, for ever, like the poor 90 year old that wrote that letter. Combined with testing/tracing etc. Trouble with that, if people are asymptomatic, is the very low hit rate for PCR testing if applied randomly, so what do you do? 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
P.K. Posted October 13, 2020 Share Posted October 13, 2020 Unfortunately the "do nothing" strategy is always Bozo's go to option. Covid: ministers ignored Sage advice to impose lockdown or face catastrophe Most Sage proposals not acted upon by government despite strong warnings over second wave Ministers were warned three weeks ago that the country faced a “very large epidemic with catastrophic consequences” unless they took immediate action by imposing a two-week “circuit breaker” lockdown to reduce the spread of coronavirus. The government’s Sage committee of experts urged ministers to move urgently as new infections rose in all age groups across the country, even as the full impact of opening schools and universities had yet to be felt. The group proposed five measures including the circuit breaker – a short period of lockdown to drive new infections down – that it urged ministers to consider to head off a second wave of the virus that “would fall disproportionately on the frailest in our society, but also those on lower incomes and BAME [black, Asian and minority ethnic] communities”. The experts said: “As over 90% of the population remain susceptible, not acting now to reduce cases will result in a very large epidemic with catastrophic consequences in terms of direct Covid-related deaths and the ability of the Health Service to meet needs." https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/oct/12/ministers-rejected-four-out-five-proposals-from-sage-to-avert-covid-second-wave 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTeapot Posted October 13, 2020 Share Posted October 13, 2020 (edited) 6 minutes ago, wrighty said: As usual there's a bit more nuance to this - asymptomatic spread is not necessarily good, nor is the concept necessarily bollocks. Imagine there was a test to identify who would be asymptomatic and who would be severely affected by covid. Organise a party for the first lot, tell the others to hide away for a couple of weeks. Hey presto - herd immunity. The best test we have right now to see if someone will be minimally affected by covid is the date of birth test. Which is why I don't think it's a bad idea that 18-21 year old students all get covid in their first term at uni. You have to shield the elderly and vulnerable though and that is the difficulty. In the absence of a vaccine, the only options seem to be to allow the virus to spread, or to keep everyone locked up, for ever, like the poor 90 year old that wrote that letter. Combined with testing/tracing etc. Trouble with that, if people are asymptomatic, is the very low hit rate for PCR testing if applied randomly, so what do you do? I'm glad you use the word 'concept', because from what I can tell a concept it what it is. There is no herd immunity for coronaviruses that cause colds, this one hasn't been around long enough to have the evidence that it will behave any differently. I accept you may well know differently, and would welcome being corrected. Edited October 13, 2020 by TheTeapot 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Banker Posted October 13, 2020 Share Posted October 13, 2020 5 minutes ago, P.K. said: Unfortunately the "do nothing" strategy is always Bozo's go to option. Covid: ministers ignored Sage advice to impose lockdown or face catastrophe Most Sage proposals not acted upon by government despite strong warnings over second wave Ministers were warned three weeks ago that the country faced a “very large epidemic with catastrophic consequences” unless they took immediate action by imposing a two-week “circuit breaker” lockdown to reduce the spread of coronavirus. The government’s Sage committee of experts urged ministers to move urgently as new infections rose in all age groups across the country, even as the full impact of opening schools and universities had yet to be felt. The group proposed five measures including the circuit breaker – a short period of lockdown to drive new infections down – that it urged ministers to consider to head off a second wave of the virus that “would fall disproportionately on the frailest in our society, but also those on lower incomes and BAME [black, Asian and minority ethnic] communities”. The experts said: “As over 90% of the population remain susceptible, not acting now to reduce cases will result in a very large epidemic with catastrophic consequences in terms of direct Covid-related deaths and the ability of the Health Service to meet needs." https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/oct/12/ministers-rejected-four-out-five-proposals-from-sage-to-avert-covid-second-wave Typical you accept as gospel what’s in guardian but not in newspapers you don’t like. Whether you agree or not Boris has already stated there would not be a national lockdown and looking at today’s unemployment figures you know why!! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
quilp Posted October 13, 2020 Share Posted October 13, 2020 10 minutes ago, P.K. said: Unfortunately the "do nothing" strategy is always Bozo's go to option. Covid: ministers ignored Sage advice to impose lockdown or face catastrophe Most Sage proposals not acted upon by government despite strong warnings over second wave Ministers were warned three weeks ago that the country faced a “very large epidemic with catastrophic consequences” unless they took immediate action by imposing a two-week “circuit breaker” lockdown to reduce the spread of coronavirus. The government’s Sage committee of experts urged ministers to move urgently as new infections rose in all age groups across the country, even as the full impact of opening schools and universities had yet to be felt. The group proposed five measures including the circuit breaker – a short period of lockdown to drive new infections down – that it urged ministers to consider to head off a second wave of the virus that “would fall disproportionately on the frailest in our society, but also those on lower incomes and BAME [black, Asian and minority ethnic] communities”. The experts said: “As over 90% of the population remain susceptible, not acting now to reduce cases will result in a very large epidemic with catastrophic consequences in terms of direct Covid-related deaths and the ability of the Health Service to meet needs." https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/oct/12/ministers-rejected-four-out-five-proposals-from-sage-to-avert-covid-second-wave So your attention span is adequate to read a long article in your bible of liberal delight, especially an article which tickles your political fancy. Chump... 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
P.K. Posted October 13, 2020 Share Posted October 13, 2020 3 minutes ago, wrighty said: As usual there's a bit more nuance to this - asymptomatic spread is not necessarily good, nor is the concept necessarily bollocks. Imagine there was a test to identify who would be asymptomatic and who would be severely affected by covid. Organise a party for the first lot, tell the others to hide away for a couple of weeks. Hey presto - herd immunity. The best test we have right now to see if someone will be minimally affected by covid is the date of birth test. Which is why I don't think it's a bad idea that 18-21 year old students all get covid in their first term at uni. You have to shield the elderly and vulnerable though and that is the difficulty. In the absence of a vaccine, the only options seem to be to allow the virus to spread, or to keep everyone locked up, for ever, like the poor 90 year old that wrote that letter. Combined with testing/tracing etc. Trouble with that, if people are asymptomatic, is the very low hit rate for PCR testing if applied randomly, so what do you do? The students at Manchester Uni did their bit by holding a "Covid Positive Party" As lots posted on here the youngsters of today behave just so responsibly. Especially their own.... For Covid-19 I have seen herd immunity thresholds set anywhere from 70% to 95%. I am assuming here that the 95% are the survivors.... Apparently the UK infection rate is around 10%. But how they know that is anyones guess. But without a vaccine to me that looks like several years to go to herd immunity with literally killing winters. Yeah yeah yeah blah blah blah flu, pneumonia etc Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wrighty Posted October 13, 2020 Share Posted October 13, 2020 10 minutes ago, TheTeapot said: I'm glad you use the word 'concept', because from what I can tell a concept it what it is. There is no herd immunity for coronaviruses that cause colds, this one hasn't been around long enough to have the evidence that it will behave any differently. I accept you may well know differently, and would welcome being corrected. I think there is herd immunity for colds. They're endemic, they circulate round, but as far as I'm aware nobody is dying from them. There is a level of community immunity to them. My guess is that in time, covid will become another such infection. We'll live with it. It's not going to be eradicated so what's the alternative? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
P.K. Posted October 13, 2020 Share Posted October 13, 2020 4 minutes ago, Banker said: Typical you accept as gospel what’s in guardian but not in newspapers you don’t like. Whether you agree or not Boris has already stated there would not be a national lockdown and looking at today’s unemployment figures you know why!! Don't be daft. Even the truly excellent Grauniad gets it wrong sometimes. I'll let you in on a little secret that actually refers to the entire planet. The Guardian is put together by people. And like people everywhere they sometimes fuck up... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
P.K. Posted October 13, 2020 Share Posted October 13, 2020 2 minutes ago, wrighty said: I think there is herd immunity for colds. They're endemic, they circulate round, but as far as I'm aware nobody is dying from them. There is a level of community immunity to them. My guess is that in time, covid will become another such infection. We'll live with it. It's not going to be eradicated so what's the alternative? Hmmm "community immunity" - very catchy. There is no vaccine for colds in the same way flu is always evolving. But there could be for Covid one day hopefully soon. From a standpoint of knowing fuckall about the logistics I would say it's impossible to vaccinate 7.8 billion people. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Banker Posted October 13, 2020 Share Posted October 13, 2020 6 minutes ago, P.K. said: Don't be daft. Even the truly excellent Grauniad gets it wrong sometimes. I'll let you in on a little secret that actually refers to the entire planet. The Guardian is put together by people. And like people everywhere they sometimes fuck up... WTF are you on!! When Howie ignores advice not to stop 7 days testing we don’t see you blathering on about how bad that it is. Get a grip Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
P.K. Posted October 13, 2020 Share Posted October 13, 2020 1 minute ago, Banker said: WTF are you on!! When Howie ignores advice not to stop 7 days testing we don’t see you blathering on about how bad that it is. Get a grip I didn't go on about it because, as I have posted before, it's a positive step. Data mining is lost of course. But hey... You need to get a grip. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Banker Posted October 13, 2020 Share Posted October 13, 2020 6 minutes ago, P.K. said: I didn't go on about it because, as I have posted before, it's a positive step. Data mining is lost of course. But hey... You need to get a grip. WTF is no testing a positive step ? Why is not locking down economy to say millions of jobs a negative step? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Dog's Dangly Bits Posted October 13, 2020 Share Posted October 13, 2020 2 hours ago, P.K. said: You keep blathering on about these two alleged "issues" when a recently infected person was self isolating in their household and developed symptoms. The rest of the household were tested and all were negative. So it can be successfully done and has been. The Day 7 test was not scrapped for some totally ridiculous propaganda reason but simply it was the ONLY response they had left to make. Reducing the risk of infection from 6% to 1%. Unfortunately as this post shows very clearly you don't do probability and risk. How does removing the 7 day test reduce the risk from 6% to 1%? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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