IOM Covid removing restrictions

[StevenW2]

It's important to factor in population size.  When you look at deaths per million and compare to Norway, Finland, Denmark, etc, the statistics for Sweden make for terrible reading.

[hissingsid]

What a load of rubbish our Government’s approach was spot on and the results prove it.   Figures and graphs can be, and are , manipulated to suit the point that the producer of it.   I expect you are one of the clever sods who thinks they could solve the worlds problems in half an hour when in reality you could not get a job in McDonalds, pathetic rhetoric.

[The Dog's Dangly Bits]

Behave Sid.  Jesus Fckin Wept.

It's a graph. That's all.

Deaths per million as far as the IOM is concerned is a bit irrelevant.   We have 85000 people and in reality our rate of deaths was exaggerated by one care home.

[TheTeapot]

40 minutes ago, The Dog's Dangly Bits said:

Behave Sid.  Jesus Fckin Wept.

It's a graph. That's all.

Deaths per million as far as the IOM is concerned is a bit irrelevant.   We have 85000 people and in reality our rate of deaths was exaggerated by one care home.

Try explaining that to that Josem bloke. He doesn't understand it either. "9th worst in the world" he was going on about on twitter, exposing his complete and utter lack of understanding.

[Mr Newbie]

6 hours ago, StevenW2 said:

It's important to factor in population size.  When you look at deaths per million and compare to Norway, Finland, Denmark, etc, the statistics for Sweden make for terrible reading.

That’s why only an idiot would do that. 

[Manximus Aururaneus]

The Fat Lady is going to be singing for at least another year on this one - I wouldn't rush to judge just yet.

[The Dog's Dangly Bits]

2 hours ago, TheTeapot said:

Try explaining that to that Josem bloke. He doesn't understand it either. "9th worst in the world" he was going on about on twitter, exposing his complete and utter lack of understanding.

Anyone who thinks we are the 9th worst in the world needs to give themselves a shake.

[the stinking enigma]

Similar to any where we come out 9th best

[Max Power]

I always had this problem when being quoted averages relating to the motor industry on the island. One freak occurrence or unusual action skews the balance and makes the statistics meaningless. 

[Lagman]

9 hours ago, StevenW2 said:

When you look at deaths per million

Then stop doing that because it's idiotic for a place with a town sized population - more than Guernsey, less than Jersey (30) , IOW was around 3 times our number (over 70), it's about what is expected due to population and proximity to the UK (with people who travelled back and forth).

[Lagman]

46 minutes ago, Max Power said:

I always had this problem when being quoted averages relating to the motor industry on the island. One freak occurrence or unusual action skews the balance and makes the statistics meaningless. 

This

[Lagman]

On 6/4/2020 at 2:58 PM, Black Mirror said:

The Swedish coronavirus strategy has succeeded. The first graph below speaks for itself. The graph is available on Wikipedia and from this website:
https://www.folkhalsomyndigheten.se/smittskydd-beredskap/utbrott/aktuella-utbrott/covid-19/bekraftade-fall-i-sverige/

Since Sweden never did much lockdown, the disappearance of the virus there can only be due to herd immunity having kicked in.

The virus is also disappearing fast from London, as shown by the second graph. In London, New York and Stockholm the pandemic has faded away quickly once antibodies seroprevalence in the population has reached the 20% threshold, regardless of the lockdown policy (or lack thereof). Recent papers have provided an explanation of what has happened in those cities:

1) 40-60% of people who had never been exposed to Covid-19 have effective T cell response to Covid-19 due to T-cell cross-reactivity with common seasonal coronaviruses (the common “cold”). In layman terms, half of us have preexisting natural immunity to Covid-19 and thus have no reaction to it (for specific antibodies to show up some kind of illness is needed, even a mild one). This is the paper:
“Different pattern of pre-existing SARS-COV-2 specific T cell immunity in SARS-recovered and uninfected individuals”
https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.05.26.115832v1

2) The reproduction rate R0 of Covid-19 is much higher than initially thought, in the range between 5 and 6. This is the paper:
“COVID-19 May Be Much More Contagious Than We Thought”
https://www.harvardmagazine.com/2020/05/r-nought

The corollary proposition of point (2) is that the virus cannot be stopped; it can only be delayed. In London and New York the lockdown made no difference, the result was practically the same as Stockholm, which did no lockdown.

And it is not just Sweden who faced the pandemic in an adult manner. Sweden had the guts to be open about its intended policy, but there is a whole list of other countries who adopted that strategy. Japan had an entirely voluntary lockdown: no business there was ever shut down, nobody was compelled to stay at home, no restriction of movements, and there was very little effort with the tracing. Switzerland had only a very brief lockdown, a much more liberal form of lockdown than us really, and only for the purpose of allowing some breathing space to their heath care system, and then it opened up everything from the 11th of March, including gyms and indoor sport facilities. Our government has trashed civil liberties and degraded our lives for nothing. The pandemic has shown that Britain is too stupid for democracy.

Where does leaves us in this island? My estimation is that in the Isle of Man we are only one third down the route to herd immunity (according to the above criteria) and thus the Covid-19 problem has not been solved. We basically have two choices: (i) keep the border closed in perpetuity, and see the island destroyed as a business centre (and frankly as a place where to have a life worth living); or (ii) open up the border, bear a second wave, and accept that the lockdown has all been for nothing.

I would hang the graph of (1) to the wall and knock on it the head of our pathetic health minister David Ashford? What is his plan for return to normality? Tell me please.

We'll now have to wait and see the results of all the protests/riots in a couple of weeks  - there will either be a big spike or we can then safely presume it was bollocks if there isn't one.

[Lagman]

On 6/3/2020 at 1:49 PM, Out of the blue said:

Unless I misheard, Howie said that the border would be closed until a vaccine has been created. I can only assume that he misspoke and meant that if reopened there would be severe restrictions on entry and exit would be in place until such a time that a vaccine is developed. Pinning all our hopes on a vaccine that may never happen is a bit of a policy stretch. I am happy for it to remain closed until everything is normalised in the local economy, but I would hope to be able to travel relatively freely by the autumn, maybe winter.

Why would we need a vaccine if riots and protests of thousands are acceptible gatherings? - if there isn't a massive spike in the US and UK in the next coiuple of weeks then the virus was bullshit.

[Lagman]

On 6/2/2020 at 9:14 PM, NoTail said:

The border should be lifted as soon as clinical judgement indicates that the virus is rare in the uk and the chance of it being brought here is very low.

Fat chance since the protests.

[Nomadic Raptor]

Has anyone noticed a weird phenomenon?

 

last night in tesco it was like we had gone back 6 weeks everyone has suddenly got very wary of going near people and wouldn’t walk past people who were stood into the side of an aisle, whilst 6 weeks ago people would have just pushed past.
 

 Just made me laugh  wouldn’t have thought it was 16 days without a positive case