IOM Covid removing restrictions

[The Old Git]

Wonder if Rachel also does them?

[Roger Mexico]

15 minutes ago, trmpton said:

IF today’s rumour is positive and it’s an asymptotic person who has taken a test to allow them to travel somewhere, and IF they then come back positive after taking a second test it confirms what I and others have been saying here.

It is in the community, we haven’t noticed, and that if you had tested the whole population a few weeks ago it would have been found and mass panic would have ensued while in reality no one had noticed.

Like is say , some “ifs” but I would put money on if hundreds of people now get tested there are some positive test results (note I said test results, not cases)

It doesn't confirm anything of the sort unless we can work out how the person who has it (or not) got it and how the person they got it from got it and so on.  As has been explained patiently to you previously, it's pretty near zero probability that the virus could have existed so long in he community without detection.  For a week or two perhaps, not for months on end.

There  might have been sporadic mini-outbreaks - someone brings it in and passes it on to one other person who doesn't pass it on to anyone - and there almost certainly have been some people self-isolating who have had the virus and not passed it on.  But a continued presence of the virus is simply implausible - especially with people socialising normally.

Incidentally I do that, if this was for a travel condition, the person sent off for a test across (which cost around £200) rather than taking the option of paying £50 for one on Island.  Or has that been stopped with the 7 day test?

[slinkydevil]

1 hour ago, TheTeapot said:

Private tests? Over here? What?

http://www.ims.co.im/

[Roger Mexico]

4 minutes ago, slinkydevil said:

http://www.ims.co.im/

They are clearly sending their swabs off-Island for the actual testing, but it does mean that the swabbing to take the sample will be done professionally.

[Ham_N_Eggs]

39 minutes ago, Roger Mexico said:

Actually it's 27% over 60 according to the 2016 Census.  That will continue to have increased since, because the biggest population bulge was in the 45-59 groups.

Probably 90% members of Manx Forums.

[trmpton]

17 minutes ago, Roger Mexico said:

It doesn't confirm anything of the sort unless we can work out how the person who has it (or not) got it and how the person they got it from got it and so on.  As has been explained patiently to you previously, it's pretty near zero probability that the virus could have existed so long in he community without detection.  For a week or two perhaps, not for months on end.

There  might have been sporadic mini-outbreaks - someone brings it in and passes it on to one other person who doesn't pass it on to anyone - and there almost certainly have been some people self-isolating who have had the virus and not passed it on.  But a continued presence of the virus is simply implausible - especially with people socialising normally.

Incidentally I do that, if this was for a travel condition, the person sent off for a test across (which cost around £200) rather than taking the option of paying £50 for one on Island.  Or has that been stopped with the 7 day test?

So you are 100% combined that if every person in the community had been tested 28 days ago there wouldn’t have been a single positive result which would have shown a “case in the community”. I can’t believe that, but we will never know.

I do think that if this now results in some large scale testing there will undoubtedly be positive test results.  If this hadn’t happened (and so far I believe it’s someone who was confident enough they were clear that they paid for a test to prove it) then it would have Flores around in the community until such point as someone unfortunately became ill or we happened to test one of the people who is positive but had no clue.

[piebaps]

trmpton - statistically around 20% of cases require hospital treatment, so unless the virus has mutated to only infect people who remain asympomatic, then it hasn't been here. We would've known.

[trmpton]

14 minutes ago, piebaps said:

trmpton - statistically around 20% of cases require hospital treatment, so unless the virus has mutated to only infect people who remain asympomatic, then it hasn't been here. We would've known.

Not necessarily symptoms worthy of note though.  Loads of people have coughs etc.  As I understand it none of the people in the test below were tested “because “ of their symptoms.

They were picked randomly and tested.  How many of the Facebook panic brigade who if tested positive and then asked “did you have any symptoms?” Do you think would then go “oh yeah I did like actually.  I literally only coughed this morning like”

I guess about 20% and would then post all over and tell everyone they had Corona and were isolating and their kids were off school.  I doubt any more than a handful would have gone on to develop symptoms sufficient to warrant a test and even less than that would have actually become ill.

 

”

The study, reported in Clinical Epidemiology, analysed the symptoms described by more than 36,000 people who were tested between April and June. Only 115 tests came back positive and of those only 27 people, or 23.5%, had symptoms of any description.

When the scientists narrowed the symptoms down to the main three for coronavirus infections, namely a cough, or a fever, or a loss of taste or smell, the number reporting the ailments fell to 16 or 13.9%.”

 

 

[Gladys]

1 hour ago, Roger Mexico said:

Actually it's 27% over 60 according to the 2016 Census.  That will continue to have increased since, because the biggest population bulge was in the 45-59 groups.

All the more reason to keep the economy busy to generate all that tax and NI income. 

[thesultanofsheight]

1 hour ago, Neil Down said:

I can think of two who will be... 

 

make that three 

Do you have any other function on this forum other than as a troll? Good to see that that your wildest dreams have now come true through. Much more hysteria to spread in the next few days now. Have you got your tinfoil hat tuned for Howard’s broadcast this afternoon? You’ll probably need a new pair of pants by then as you will have came in them so many times waiting for the news of the impending end of the world. 

Edited October 15, 2020 by thesultanofsheight

[thesultanofsheight]

1 hour ago, slinkydevil said:

http://www.ims.co.im/

Yes that’s what I was referring to. It’s entirely possible to get tested if you want to. Just because government won’t let you doesn’t mean you can’t. At £160 it’s steep but it’s entirely possible and feasible. 

Edited October 15, 2020 by thesultanofsheight

[AcousticallyChallenged]

9 minutes ago, thesultanofsheight said:

Yes that’s what I was referring to. It’s entirely possible to get tested if you want to. Just because government won’t let you doesn’t mean you can’t. At £160 it’s steep but it’s entirely possible and feasible. 

The prices are about on par with the cost for private tests in the UK. Wish I'd known about the antibody tests sooner as I'm fairly sure I caught it before the lockdown across. Way too late to find out now.

A lot of companies won't let people come into the office, if they have a family member self isolating, understandably so.

I doubt that the virus has been ticking over undetected for any length of time though, there are too many vulnerable people also out and about where it'd knock one of them sideways.

If there's no clarity today, tenner says there will be another conference in the next couple of days for Howie to either panic or try and reassure everyone.

[thesultanofsheight]

8 minutes ago, AcousticallyChallenged said:

If there's no clarity today, tenner says there will be another conference in the next couple of days for Howie to either panic or try and reassure everyone.

If Quayle hasn’t had 400 emails already from Meltdown Mary’s beating their keyboards with their bloodied fists in a covid panic I’d be amazed. They are going to have to grip this before the usual hysterics kick off. It’s very sad that they have to manage things like they have to because of people who largely seem to have some sort of warped mental illness that feeds off bad news. 

[pongo]

10 minutes ago, AcousticallyChallenged said:

A lot of companies won't let people come into the office, if they have a family member self isolating, understandably so..

Self isolation should mean the whole household.

[AcousticallyChallenged]

1 minute ago, pongo said:

Self isolation should mean the whole household.

That's been the next logical step for a while I reckon. I was lucky enough on return to be able to isolate entirely separately with my own bathroom. But a lot of people can't very easily. Anything shared is pushing luck.