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IOM Covid removing restrictions


Filippo

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3 minutes ago, Scotty said:

Not sure why you find my post confusing again. 

Meltdown Mary is rambling about emojis again. Give it a rest. Please don't have a complete embarrassing melter again. Your post was confusing. That’s what emojis are for. I wonder how several posters have managed to succumb to emoji-phobia at the same time. It’s spreading worse than Covid! 

Edited by thesultanofsheight
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6 minutes ago, thesultanofsheight said:

Meltdown Mary is rambling about emojis again. Give it a rest. Please don't have a complete embarrassing melter again. Your post was confusing. That’s what emojis are for. I wonder how several posters have managed to succumb to emoji-phobia at the same time. It’s spreading worse than Covid! 

you should really consider putting a halt to accusing all who disagree with you a troll. You are embarrassing yourself (again)

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3 minutes ago, Neil Down said:

you should really consider putting a halt to accusing all who disagree with you a troll. You are embarrassing yourself (again)

It’s not everyone. Just you. The forum troll who everyone knows is the forum troll. Hence the confused emoji. Don’t go into a rage about it. It’s an expression of emotion / bemusement. 

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Just now, thesultanofsheight said:

It’s not everyone. It’s just you. The forum troll who everyone knows is the forum troll. Hence the confused emoji. Don’t go into a rage about it. It’s an expression of emotion. 

Just me? okay then...🤐

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I don't think there's a good answer for the UK. As a rule of thumb, the brits are too individualistic these days to be able to wear a mask for anyone but themselves. Even the 'don't kill your gran' messaging isn't particularly effective at this point. A lot of compliance to arbitrary 'covid secure' rules just isn't happening. Here, the fact that Doris in Castletown knows if you fart up in Andreas is working reasonably well to maintain a sense of community responsibility.

People in England especially understandably have no faith in the restrictions as everything else has been so lackadaisically managed from the start.

The UK is arguably over the edge far beyond rescue. You can't lock down again to reset, as you'll only be back where you are, as your mates millions of pounds worth of track and trace system is useless. So it's going to get worse before it gets better. Especially with high-profile situations like Manchester and armed police rocking up at the Liverpool gym.

Realistically, here, we'd be wise to plod on as we are through this winter, we've got a lot more freedom than we could have, and businesses are better open and ticking over than shut with not enough in the coffers to support them and workers up until Christmas.

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6 hours ago, wrighty said:

The reality is that the second wave is coming - at least in the NW. ITU beds filling up, something like 600+ covid cases admitted to Liverpool hospitals right now, they’re on the verge of cancelling elective work, and we’re having to come up with contingency plans for how to deal with non-covid stuff here that ordinarily gets sent across, if they can’t cope. 

On the plus side, we’re better at treating it now. It may be slightly less virulent than in April (jury’s out on that one) and effective, and more importantly ineffective treatments, are known about. 

Even two days ago the Medical Director of the Liverpool Hospitals Trust was saying that they had almost as many Covid patients as at the height of the first wave.  To be greeted by lots of replies that they should be using the Nightingale hospitals.  Sigh.  Of course the disaster over building the new hospital hasn't helped.  But purely selfishly from an Isle of Man perspective it's very worrying.

The ICNARC figures certainly reflected some improvement in treatment even over the Spring, though it's difficult to tell in the Autumn (admission from 1 Sep) figures yet as 48% of those admitted are still in critical care (38% discharged, 14% died) because admissions are mainly from the last two weeks.  Certainly a lot was learned, including what not to do - or do too early.  But the results of the latest large trial for Remdesivir and Interferon among others have proved to be disappointing.

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Herein lies/lay the problem.

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-sage-says-59-000-people-could-die-with-covid-19-over-summer-in-reasonable-worst-case-scenario-12105863

...................................and of course it didn't happen or come even close.  Yes, there are caveats in the document but this is the kind of information SAGE has been feeding to the Classics and PPE graduates who run the nation, who see nothing but catastrophic numbers. 

They don't have the ability to seriously question the data and are fed from but one source so little wonder they are making the dreadful decisions evident to date.

And then they wonder why faith in 'experts' eg Fergusson and Witty is approaching the square root of zero.

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1 hour ago, Utah 01 said:

Herein lies/lay the problem.

...................................and of course it didn't happen or come even close.  Yes, there are caveats in the document but this is the kind of information SAGE has been feeding to the Classics and PPE graduates who run the nation, who see nothing but catastrophic numbers. 

Well I think even Classics and PPE graduates might be able to understand the words "reasonable worst case scenario" which is actually in the headline.  It's the very worst that would happen under the given circumstances.  It doesn't mean that it will happen and they specifically say that the model isn't predictive.

In this case it's what would happen if there were enough restrictions lifted to make the R value climb to the range R = 1.5 to 1.7.  Which didn't happen because not enough restrictions were lifted.  So those people didn't die.  Are you disappointed?

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