IOM Covid removing restrictions

[wrighty]

38 minutes ago, Josem said:

Accuracy is "getting the right answer".

Not good enough. Let me have something in terms of sensitivity and specificity, with particular reference to the antibody test being used on island. 
 

You normally write plenty - after your patronising rant on antibody tests the other day why is it now only 6 words on the topic? 

[Josem]

13 minutes ago, wrighty said:

Not good enough. Let me have something in terms of sensitivity and specificity, with particular reference to the antibody test being used on island. 
 

You normally write plenty - after your patronising rant on antibody tests the other day why is it now only 6 words on the topic? 

My post only required six words because "accuracy" is not a hard word to define. "Accuracy" means getting the right answer - any human reading this thread can understand that from the context.

Unfortunately, a test which is only 97% accurate is not very good if the base rate of the thing being tested is 3-5%.

[wrighty]

28 minutes ago, Josem said:

My post only required six words because "accuracy" is not a hard word to define. "Accuracy" means getting the right answer - any human reading this thread can understand that from the context.

Unfortunately, a test which is only 97% accurate is not very good if the base rate of the thing being tested is 3-5%.

If you don’t understand just say. 

But before you reply have a look at confidence intervals. Accuracy, in the context of statistical sampling and using tests that may not be 100%, is not easy to define. Try again. What does the 97% refer to? 

[Golfer]

Will those having antibody tests which I understand is anyone going in for routine blood test be advised of results and will family members be tested if results are positive?

[The Dog's Dangly Bits]

Given the amount of blood tests done every day ( they seem to be chocca from start to finish each day) it would make sense to build the database from there.

If someone tests positive for the antibodies then it would also make sense to test household members.

[John Wright]

42 minutes ago, The Dog's Dangly Bits said:

Given the amount of blood tests done every day ( they seem to be chocca from start to finish each day) it would make sense to build the database from there.

If someone tests positive for the antibodies then it would also make sense to test household members.

I understand that this is planned, testing blood samples. They need to obtain consent. They weren’t asking for consent when I was there on Wednesday. Throughput is much reduced. Only two stations/phlebotomists on duty, wiping everything down between patients. 10 and hour max. It’s being done in reception area, behind desk. Waiting area is thie bee cafe with socially distanced seating.

You've got to be careful however. Testing those of us with other conditions ( or our family members ) won’t give a representative sample. Could be distorted two ways. I’m in the extremely vulnerable category and have been ( mainly ) shielding so not much chance of antibodies as I’ve had no exposure. Others may Have been inpatients or passed through care homes, they may have had increased exposure.

Im sure @wrighty will correct us, but I thought the 10,000 antibody tests were to determine the real extent of community exposure, so will need to be randomised. I suspect that other details such as age, occupation and even  High level post code would enable a drill down when analysing. 

[John Wright]

1 hour ago, Golfer said:

Will those having antibody tests which I understand is anyone going in for routine blood test be advised of results and will family members be tested if results are positive?

Should turn up in the report back to your GP which will show up in your patient access app results page. They land on mine the day after testing. Normally before GP has seen them..

What good will it do, and what will it serve to test family members for antibodies?

[wrighty]

17 minutes ago, John Wright said:

 

Im sure @wrighty will correct us, but I thought the 10,000 antibody tests were to determine the real extent of community exposure, so will need to be randomised. I suspect that other details such as age, occupation and even  High level post code would enable a drill down when analysing. 

The first batch of testing is in the form of a pilot study to get an idea of community exposure, and will comprise a mix of some of the 300 or so that have been swabbed positive, some of those that were symptomatic but swabbed negative, random samples sent in for other reasons - the consent issue has been thought through and will take the form of a leaflet - and hospital staff (on the basis that we’re more likely to have been exposed, and we’re easy to get samples from). There is an expiry date on the tests so we can’t hang about. 
 

The pilot study will inform the design of a second phase of randomised testing which will be done along the lines of how you indicate, stratified by age, location etc. But something like that takes a bit longer to organise. 

[Golfer]

But will anyone testing positive for antibodies be advised as that would be useful information for them?

[John Wright]

9 minutes ago, Golfer said:

But will anyone testing positive for antibodies be advised as that would be useful information for them?

As we don’t know if antibodies confer any immunity, or for how long, I’m interested in what benefits you think the knowledge might serve.

How was the golf tour on CalMac?
 

( I’ve explained above how to get the info )

[Golfer]

21 minutes ago, John Wright said:

As we don’t know if antibodies confer any immunity, or for how long, I’m interested in what benefits you think the knowledge might serve.

How was the golf tour on CalMac?
 

( I’ve explained above how to get the info )

Lot of practices have turned off information like test results in patients access including mine for some covid related reason! Reason I would like to know that on returning from Spain in January I was ill in bed for several days with a cough, temperature and sore throats so interested to see if it was the virus or not.

[John Wright]

3 minutes ago, Golfer said:

Lot of practices have turned off information like test results in patients access including mine for some covid related reason! Reason I would like to know that on returning from Spain in January I was ill in bed for several days with a cough, temperature and sore throats so interested to see if it was the virus or not.

My practice is still showing test results. The results for my bloods on Wednesday were posted up late Thursday. The results of the PML-RARA genetic testing for return of leukaemia take 6 weeks as they get sent to a lab at Guys.

Not sure I’m interested whether I’ve had it or not.

[wrighty]

2 hours ago, Golfer said:

But will anyone testing positive for antibodies be advised as that would be useful information for them?

Yes they will. But the information comes with caveats. It’s unknown how long any immunity will last, or even if despite antibodies it’s still possible to get or more importantly spread covid. 
 

From an individual perspective if you have antibodies and didn’t know you’d ever had covid it’s likely you won’t be severely affected in future. But even that isn’t 100% guaranteed. 

[Wilson]

So really the reality is no one has any idea whatsoever. I don’t mind that but maybe those that think they do should just say ‘ sorry , we don’t really know how this will pan out , we can guess based on modeling that may or not be accurate based on data that may or not be accurate using computer programmers that may be cutting edge or still using FORTRAN ‘. 

[NoTail]

2 hours ago, wrighty said:

Yes they will. But the information comes with caveats. It’s unknown how long any immunity will last, or even if despite antibodies it’s still possible to get or more importantly spread covid. 
 

From an individual perspective if you have antibodies and didn’t know you’d ever had covid it’s likely you won’t be severely affected in future. But even that isn’t 100% guaranteed. 

Hi Wrighty

This has been troubling me. It is unknown whether having antibodies provides immunity.  I could understand that in the first month or so, but we have a known base now of 6 million cases worldwide,  are we seeing cases of second or even third infection?  If not then the pointer must be indicating that once infected you have for the time being, a level of immunity.