IOM Covid removing restrictions

[AcousticallyChallenged]

4 minutes ago, trmpton said:

They don’t know the rate in England.  They haven’t tested everyone.

 

10 - 15 might be over the top.  Point is there will be enough that if the Facebook nutters knew they would want everything shut immediately.

 

If it was here, there'd be at least one sewing group of little old stitchers that had succumbed. Or an outbreak at a church where the vulnerable mix and have a good sing-song. Actually, the cause of one of SK's big outbreaks.

The odds of someone coming over with COVID are still reasonably slim, such that someone coming over, breaking the rules, and passing it on add to a small probability of community transmission getting off the ground.

Current prevalence in England is roughly 1 in 130 according to the ONS. That includes random swabbing so gives a better idea of the state of things. So you'd be looking at around 1% of travelers. Now imagine what percentage of those have broken the rules.

 

[trmpton]

1 minute ago, AcousticallyChallenged said:

If it was here, there'd be at least one sewing group of little old stitchers that had succumbed. Or an outbreak at a church where the vulnerable mix and have a good sing-song. Actually, the cause of one of SK's big outbreaks.

The odds of someone coming over with COVID are still reasonably slim, such that someone coming over, breaking the rules, and passing it on add to a small probability of community transmission getting off the ground.

Current prevalence in England is roughly 1 in 130 according to the ONS. That includes random swabbing so gives a better idea of the state of things. So you'd be looking at around 1% of travelers. Now imagine what percentage of those have broken the rules.

 

So how do we explain the fact that we know it was in Guernsey (for who knows how long) and that they have no one in hospital despite no masks or social distancing?

[AcousticallyChallenged]

1 minute ago, trmpton said:

So how do we explain the fact that we know it was in Guernsey (for who knows how long) and that they have no one in hospital despite no masks or social distancing?

Given how limited the number of cases they've found in Guernsey is, there's a reasonable assumption that it wasn't around for long.

Look at Jersey, they've done lots of testing with comparatively low numbers of cases.

A big part of the limited spread here probably comes from the fact that you wouldn't live it down for a long time if you caused a spread by breaking the rules.

[John Wright]

7 minutes ago, trmpton said:

So how do we explain the fact that we know it was in Guernsey (for who knows how long) and that they have no one in hospital despite no masks or social distancing?

We know there were cases in Guernsey last week. No more, no less. Very few. No further cases yet. No tracing as to where it originated. But the chances are it’s from outside Guernsey.

Always look at the most probable explanation before improbable ones or conspiracy theories.

[trmpton]

1 minute ago, AcousticallyChallenged said:

Given how limited the number of cases they've found in Guernsey is, there's a reasonable assumption that it wasn't around for long.

Look at Jersey, they've done lots of testing with comparatively low numbers of cases.

A big part of the limited spread here probably comes from the fact that you wouldn't live it down for a long time if you caused a spread by breaking the rules.

So where did the first case in Guernsey come from?

Another case in the community that they haven’t identified yet?

[trmpton]

1 minute ago, John Wright said:

We know there were cases in Guernsey last week. No more, no less. Very few. No further cases yet. No tracing as to where it originated. But the chances are it’s from outside Guernsey.

Always look at the most probable Reason before improbable ones or conspiracy theories.

If it was that probable, is it not likely that all the resources guernsey have thrown at finding it would have come up trumps?

[John Wright]

5 minutes ago, trmpton said:

If it was that probable, is it not likely that all the resources guernsey have thrown at finding it would have come up trumps?

No. Even the best T&T only pick up a Comparatively  small percentage of contacts. Even the technological ones.

[hissingsid]

It has been stated it was not from Guernsey but a high risk area, one had been in close contact with a Covid sufferer but came to the Island anyway ......

[trmpton]

4 minutes ago, John Wright said:

No. Even the best T&T only pick up a Comparatively  small percentage of contacts. Even the technological ones.

I struggle with that to be honest.

If the highly contagious killer COVID was contracted by someone, who didn’t know he had it, then found out he did and they immediately identified 6 people he had passed it to. Then surely there would be loads of others (including whoever he got it from) wandering all over the place and spreading it?

If he hadn’t travelled where did this mystery case come from if no one else there had it?

Do you think if they tested the whole Iom tomorrow there would be positive cases in the wild?

[trmpton]

1 minute ago, hissingsid said:

It has been stated it was not from Guernsey but a high risk area, one had been in close contact with a Covid sufferer but came to the Island anyway ......

No one had said today’s case here was in anyway related to guernsey

[hissingsid]

Not on this forum but in other media reports.

[Lxxx]

Time for rational heads in positions of authority as cases rise as we move into the winter. 

We apparently have enough capacity at Nobles to ride a wave similar to earlier this year (Wrighty to confirm?) so let’s not ruin livelihoods in the run up to Xmas by pandering to the illiterates on Facebook, who will no doubt clog up the inboxes of our elected officials. 

We need to learn to live with it now. We’re in a fortunate position here, we don’t need to make a bad situation worse by panicking at a crucial time.

[AcousticallyChallenged]

17 minutes ago, Lxxx said:

Time for rational heads in positions of authority as cases rise as we move into the winter. 

We apparently have enough capacity at Nobles to ride a wave similar to earlier this year (Wrighty to confirm?) so let’s not ruin livelihoods in the run up to Xmas by pandering to the illiterates on Facebook, who will no doubt clog up the inboxes of our elected officials. 

We need to learn to live with it now. We’re in a fortunate position here, we don’t need to make a bad situation worse by panicking at a crucial time.

If you look at the mortality rates and population demographics of the island, we'd get as many deaths in the 18-65 range as we would for over 65s.

Based on current hospitalisations in the UK, if everyone had it at once, you'd need about 150 beds (I previously did the maths in an earlier post on both fronts).

I think a lockdown would be fatal for a lot of hospitality that's counting on a busy christmas, so if we can stay away from needing social distancing, they'll do massively better.

[pongo]

14 minutes ago, Lxxx said:

Time for rational heads in positions of authority as cases rise as we move into the winter. 

We apparently have enough capacity at Nobles to ride a wave similar to earlier this year (Wrighty to confirm?) so let’s not ruin livelihoods in the run up to Xmas by pandering to the illiterates on Facebook, who will no doubt clog up the inboxes of our elected officials. 

We need to learn to live with it now. We’re in a fortunate position here, we don’t need to make a bad situation worse by panicking at a crucial time.

Thanks to the current restrictions the economy here is almost certainly doing better than it would be without restrictions. Thanks to the current restrictions we are able to live relatively normal lives - on an island where the majority of work is now effectively either online or local trade.

So I agree - let's not ruin livelihoods in the run up to Xmas by pandering to the illiterates on Facebook. Let's not give in to people who want us to lose that advantage.

[pongo]

Relatively few need to travel to old fashioned sales meetings - and let's be honest, it would be a silly place for a travelling salesperson to be based.