IOM Covid removing restrictions

[John Wright]

1 hour ago, trmpton said:

I struggle with that to be honest.

If the highly contagious killer COVID was contracted by someone, who didn’t know he had it, then found out he did and they immediately identified 6 people he had passed it to. Then surely there would be loads of others (including whoever he got it from) wandering all over the place and spreading it?

If he hadn’t travelled where did this mystery case come from if no one else there had it?

Do you think if they tested the whole Iom tomorrow there would be positive cases in the wild?

Sorry you’re struggling. It’s easy. Just think.

First track and trace works forward from a known positive. So your postulation is ok. But even that is hit and miss. You can’t, even with the best apps, identify everyone, over 2,3,4,5 days that the person has had contact with.

im signed up to the T&T apps for Spain, Italy, Greece, Bulgaria and England. In all my travels, and I carry my phone everywhere, I’ve not received a warning.

Contagion is relative to time and proximity.

T&T doesn’t, generally, look backwards.

Even if it did you only need one person to pass to you. You May be the only one. They may have been a key worker, a returnee.

I think it’s highly unlikely they find any true positives in the community if they trusted the whole IOM today.

And for me that is the real problem with our border policy. At some stage we have to open them more than now. What happens then?

[trmpton]

8 minutes ago, John Wright said:

Sorry you’re struggling. It’s easy. Just think.

First track and trace works forward from a known positive. So your postulation is ok. But even that is hit and miss. You can’t, even with the best apps, identify everyone, over 2,3,4,5 days that the person has had contact with.

im signed up to the T&T apps for Spain, Italy, Greece, Bulgaria and England. In all my travels, and I carry my phone everywhere, I’ve not received a warning.

Contagion is relative to time and proximity.

T&T doesn’t, generally, look backwards.

Even if it did you only need one person to pass to you. You May be the only one. They may have been a key worker, a returnee.

I think it’s highly unlikely they find any true positives in the community if they trusted the whole IOM today.

And for me that is the real problem with our border policy. At some stage we have to open them more than now. What happens then?

So I agree completely with your last paragraph, not so much the one above it

The difficulty with this is none of us know.  So to me the obvious thing to do is test on arrival, and then randomly test significant parts of the population whilst easing the borders slightly.

If you pick something up then you track and trace, quickly, using the world beating app that was build by our world beating telcos and software businesses 

[AcousticallyChallenged]

2 minutes ago, trmpton said:

So I agree completely with your last paragraph, not so much the one above it

The difficulty with this is none of us know.  So to me the obvious thing to do is test on arrival, and then randomly test significant parts of the population whilst easing the borders slightly.

If you pick something up then you track and trace, quickly, using the world beating app that was build by our world beating telcos and software businesses 

You have to remember how averse they are to testing people though. We have the capacity for 800 tests a day I think Howie said. Think how many people more could be tested on arrival.

Their motivation they've claimed is that people are less likely to be sensible if they've had a negative result, despite the potential to then become a shedding virus pot.

Far safer for optics to keep the closer the boarders brigade to have fewer tests and fewer chances to get positive figures.

[hissingsid]

Or just carry on as we are doing, living near normal lives, economy doing ok, except for hotels although how many visitors come over this time of the year is negible, they are getting Xmas party bookings etc.   The shops in Strand Street may not be busy but that was happening way before Covid due to greedy landlords and the internet.   Tradesmen are busy enough, building going on.   Why would we want to endanger all that ?

[John Wright]

11 minutes ago, trmpton said:

So I agree completely with your last paragraph, not so much the one above it

The difficulty with this is none of us know.  So to me the obvious thing to do is test on arrival, and then randomly test significant parts of the population whilst easing the borders slightly.

If you pick something up then you track and trace, quickly, using the world beating app that was build by our world beating telcos and software businesses 

But test on arrival, or before departure really is problematic. It sounds obvious. But you still have to quarantine between test and disembarking ( to stop post test infection ) or between test and result ( at the very least if testing is on arrival ), and given that the virus may not show up until day 4,5,6,7, but you may be infectious from day 2, there’s a problem. It’s only going to detect 5 out of 10 of those who are infected. That’s the opposite of most viruses which aren’t infectious before symptoms. 

I support testing at or before arrival in conjunction with 7 day isolation and a second test.

14 days isolation is gold standard. So it’s a question of reducing the time, but still having a high enough detection rate. 

Again - the T&T apps aren’t worth the money spent on development, none of them, claimed world beating or not. Not enough people use install them, use them, switch on blue tooth, etc. Unless you go to South Korean extremes and have a very compliant population.

[Anyone]

4 hours ago, Derek Flint said:

This ‘lifestyle’ thing is subjective. There are people the IOM suits absolutely at all levels of wealth, but there is also an element who will be reviewing their options. Likewise there will be those in the UK doing the same and looking to the utopian green hills by the sea. But unless they are bringing taxable income with them, they are not much use to the big picture. And as taxation increases here - which is inevitable, they may become disenfranchised and seek to return.  It if house prices drop, they may in fact be trapped here. It really is a dilemma. 

Apparently, according to an estate agent I spoke with, there are a significant number of divorce sales.

I think that most of those coming in will bring little in terms of economic activity as you say so will be a net drain on resources. 
Anecdotal I know but I hear of quite a lot of people looking to leave soon as. All economically active and youngish. If I was young I would leave unless we see some real leadership n Tynwald. I won’t be holding my breath on that.

[Anyone]

1 hour ago, pongo said:

Thanks to the current restrictions the economy here is almost certainly doing better than it would be without restrictions. Thanks to the current restrictions we are able to live relatively normal lives - on an island where the majority of work is now effectively either online or local trade.

So I agree - let's not ruin livelihoods in the run up to Xmas by pandering to the illiterates on Facebook. Let's not give in to people who want us to lose that advantage.

I think you’ll find the economy is not doing as well as you imagine. Bit more to it than TJ Max and Costa being full. But I imagine you deal in unreal time ( ie you must be a computer bod ) so don’t really understand economics.

[trmpton]

BBC news just now

”102 deaths of people who died for any reason within 28 days of a Poitier COVID test”

it’s autumn.  People die

[hissingsid]

I don’t think you have tried to get a tradesman lately, everyone I speak to is fairly happy so I think it is you that does not understand economics.

[Anyone]

1 minute ago, hissingsid said:

I don’t think you have tried to get a tradesman lately, everyone I speak to is fairly happy so I think it is you that does not understand economics.

I think you are missing the point but no matter. I can add local tradesmen to TJ’s and Costa. Happy now? We are facing an economic tsunami and right now the tide is out. I hope you are retired and on a fixed income. If so you’ll be fine.

[Cambon]

13 minutes ago, Anyone said:

I think you’ll find the economy is not doing as well as you imagine. Bit more to it than TJ Max and Costa being full. But I imagine you deal in unreal time ( ie you must be a computer bod ) so don’t really understand economics.

Anyone, the economy here is ticking over ok. It is not booming, but ticking over. That is far better than what is happening across and beyond. 

You flippantly mention Costas etc. Yes, that is part of the economy, but look at the amount of construction and home improvement. People buying new furniture, T.V.s,  etc. It is all going on, but you seem to be oblivious. 

[hissingsid]

Totally oblivious to all that is happening I would say, an economic tsunami?  what on earth are you on about.

[Anyone]

I was not being flippant. The local economy may well be okish but that is a small part of the treasury take. Ok I’ll add selling TVs and sofas to the list. If you really think a world recession will have no effect here then I think you are being naive. The other problem we have is that minus an effective vaccine the IOM is very exposed as it’s only option is isolation. How long do you think that is viable before people bale out. 

[piebaps]

Apart from sales of furniture, electrical equipment, coffee, shit clothing and the construction industry, what have the Romans ever done for us?

[Anyone]

The MUI