IOM Covid removing restrictions

[Filippo]

19 hours ago, Gladys said:

Thank you BM, beyond the current "inconveniences", there is a real threat to society, individual freedoms and our acceptance of the replacement of democracy with state paternalism.

 

18 hours ago, Major Rushen said:

France and Germany on full lockdown. Is there no other way?

 

18 hours ago, Lxxx said:

Not for increasingly authoritarian governments. 

If the whole of the civil service as well as MP’s were forced to relinquish their salary during any lockdown I would interested to see how quick they would resort to it. See when you have no worries about whether the bills are being paid or your future income is under threat it’s a lot easier to tell others they need to shut up shop.

 

17 hours ago, Max Power said:

Quite frankly Gladys, they have gradually shown themselves to be worse than their previous counterparts as the century has unfolded. Their lofty positions have blinded them and raised them in their own estimations to the point where they believe that they are superior and all knowing, when nothing could be further from the truth. The pandemic is being used to reinforce their self engrandment and to strip away hard won liberties across the world. I think these are very dangerous times indeed!

 

4 hours ago, trmpton said:

If you think “most people aren’t bothered” then you speak to very different people to the ones I do.

Most of my regular contacts are becoming seriously annoyed that loved ones can’t come and visit even if prepared to isolate and that there is no clear road map as to how this ever changes.  They are going to have some seriously unhappy residents of family and friends can’t get here for Christmas.

I know of people out of work due to this in the UK effectively stuck in their homes because the were born here and their family are all here.  They want to isolate on return and then see family, or are happy to have family isolate with them, but are being refused travel.  That situation needs relaxing at least for people born here or who have close family and friends here.

 

6 hours ago, Nellie said:

I hope I'm proved wrong later today, but there's a real risk that CoMin will just drift along, doing and changing nothing, and hiding behind the UK situation, until well into the New Year. By then,the General Election will be on the horizon, HQ will announce he won't be standing which will leave us with a zombie CM and a zombie CoMin. We'll just drift through 2021 with still no exit strategy, no plan. I hope I'm wrong, but at this time, I see no reason to expect a more optimistic way forward.

 

5 hours ago, Andy Onchan said:

If they don't have a strategy leading up to Xmas (other than a unidents staggered return) then there won't be one after Xmas either as IOMG drift along. I'm inclined to agree with Nellie's scenario. And that scenario is worrying.

 

2 hours ago, AcousticallyChallenged said:

There were key workers coming over all through the lockdown too, they effectively have to exist entirely isolated from the rest of the island, which is how they skirt quarantine.

The only visitors we get that are family etc. are coming over for compassionate reasons.

I don't think Tynwald has an answer beyond the head in the sand approach of keeping everything shut and everyone in isolation. If we've got minimal cases at the expense of everything from data to families, the approach simply must be working. There can't be any way of doing things differently and sensibly, surely.

Heavens forbid the scandal if we had a case from someone able to come over through Level 3! Or what if the rate of COVID positive tests goes up by testing on arrival?! Would anyone think of the facebook crowd?

 

3 minutes ago, John Wright said:

That’s missing the point. Our levels and triggers for moving levels are fixed and inflexible and aren’t moving with the medical advice and the practical experience.

Of course we are lucky from the point of view of not having Covid. But it’s a cul de sac. We won’t stay Covid free forever. And when it gets here there’s potentially a bigger risk of a nasty spread, very quickly.

We can’t isolate forever. It is damaging to our economy, and the longer we stay locked up the worse it becomes. We aren’t a sealed economy. We aren’t internally self sufficient. Lots of our money gets sent off Island, to but capital goods, food, internet purchases. Something has  got to come in in return.

I suspect today will be a step backwards. If you isolate at home on return everyone in the house will also have to self isolate with you.

Whereas Guernsey are lighter on their feet. Moving forward. We step backwards. We make such a mess of repatriation of the Guernsey guests. Took them down to the airport, sat them on a plane for an hour, deplaned them. No taxis, buses wouldn’t pick them up. One guy has been demonised for trying to get on the bus. We’ve no flexibility, no compassion, no nifty footwork. And it’s all driven by the knee jerk appeasement of the pitchfork brigade.

 

Please see graphs below (daily fatalities in Sweden vs Czech Republic). No sign of a second wave in Sweden yet; not even the hint of a ripple. And there winter is coming sooner and harsher than here. And by the way, Sweden is actually more urbanised than the UK: a higher percentage of its population lives in cities.

Sometimes I wonder what amount of evidence will it take to acknowledge the reality of the situation. Sweden is not the only country in which herd immunity has made its work; there are much more significant and proven examples from an epidemiological perspective. In South Africa and the large metropolises of India, for instance, the pandemic has already ended or coming to an end soon: their governments’ sheer idiocy has forced their populations to live indoor into such cramped living arrangements, or into those long queues for almost any daily necessity... which has greatly facilitated the spread of Covid (no joke, that is what their epidemiologists say). Though, their infection fatality rates have been very low, well below seasonal flu IFR, due to cross-immunity from the other coronaviruses. Even HIV doesn’t make you weak as concerns Covid, only fat and the hypocrisy of the welfare state does!

It seems that destitute populations living in cramped conditions are more robust to Covid, while the isolated ones are vulnerable. And thus isolation begets more isolation. There is no doubt in my mind that our insular-minded government is making long term harm to our health and wellbeing by cutting off this island from the world. Please give one example, one historical case of a population that has isolated itself and whose splendid isolation has brought it better living conditions and better health. Not to mention a system of human governance having a considerate balance between public and private interest.

In the meantime, a disheartening conviction has been missed on this thread: the case of that 42 yo Douglas woman who, to escape her drunk partner, presented herself to a homeless shelter and, having spontaneously explained that she had returned from the UK a few days earlier, has been punished by our authorities with a four week jail term; for not hiding her unfortunate circumstances. I wonder how many of us, facing family conflicts or other unfavourable conditions of life, have ever, even for a moment, contemplated taking refuge into a homeless shelter, even as a theoretical possibility. I don’t know anyone personally.

Setting aside the issue of the callousness of similar convictions. Among the half of IOM population that is non-Manx born, many, if not most, will not understand insularity and will have serious problems adapting to it if it is brought to the extreme. Some came here because they saw a certain system; others did not make an entirely conscious decision, but their employers did for sure. Now it is introduced such a fundamental change as pulling up a drawbridge that many of us had not even noticed… It is absolutely enormous and it hasn’t yet sank into everyone’s mind how enormous it is.

Checks and balances have gone. It takes Lord Sumption lecturing in Cambridge to remind British people of the enormity of the situation, that Covid measures will be seen as “monument of collective hysteria and folly”. Lady Hale, another supreme court judge, has recently joined him with the same criticism. But if Sumption‘s legalistic and constitutional (as well as sociological and historical and humanitarian) arguments are too much of an indulgence for our scientific minds, if you want one of the most coherent scientific disapproval of lockdowns, just look at the minutes of SAGE (including, yes, the opinions of those two disciples of lockdown Chris Whitty and Patrick Vallance) in late March, just before Boris Johnson did actually turn on the lockdown switch and politics took over.

 

[AcousticallyChallenged]

Well, given that we're not any way close to India or South Africa, in climate, demographics or attitudes, let's first look there. There's a lot of suggestion now that COVID's R-value is seasonal, and that actually, winter here is seeming to be a lovely catalyst for it, even with social distancing and masks. Especially with it being aerosolised. Ventilation is looking like one of the big factors in indoor spread. Indian metropolises tend to have a lot of ventilation because it gets chuffing hot, and poorer houses don't exactly get structural integrity as a priority.

Sweden on the other hand is an outlier in Europe, but remember that the Scandinavians have very different views on things like personal space. That probably makes a bigger difference than you'd imagine. Though, look at their cases and ask how that herd immunity is going now... Remember a month or two ago when 3k cases in the UK seemed high...

Whatever way you shake the stick, things are getting worse again, especially in the UK, with 1000 hospital admissions yesterday, higher than the fateful 23rd March. At current rates, total in hospital are doubling every two weeks, so they'll be hitting lockdown figures for total in hospital over there too.

Edited October 29, 2020 by AcousticallyChallenged

[monasqueen]

Sweden is not necessarily the country that the UK needs to follow. Their cases are rising again, fast. They've had a 70% increase in cases over the last week. They have also recently had a regional lockdown.

"It is “futile and immoral” to seek herd immunity as a protection from a pandemic, and the transmission of an infectious disease like Covid-19 cannot be fully halted without a vaccine, Sweden's chief epidemiologist Anders Tegnell has said."

Reading between the lines of this recent article, they are still trying to work out their best way forward.

[Escape Artist]

28 minutes ago, AcousticallyChallenged said:

Well, given that we're not any way close to India or South Africa, in climate, demographics or attitudes, let's first look there. There's a lot of suggestion now that COVID's R-value is seasonal, and that actually, winter here is seeming to be a lovely catalyst for it, even with social distancing and masks. Especially with it being aerosolised. Ventilation is looking like one of the big factors in indoor spread. Indian metropolises tend to have a lot of ventilation because it gets chuffing hot, and poorer houses don't exactly get structural integrity as a priority.

Sweden on the other hand is an outlier in Europe, but remember that the Scandinavians have very different views on things like personal space. That probably makes a bigger difference than you'd imagine. Though, look at their cases and ask how that herd immunity is going now... Remember a month or two ago when 3k cases in the UK seemed high...

Whatever way you shake the stick, things are getting worse again, especially in the UK, with 1000 hospital admissions yesterday, higher than the fateful 23rd March. At current rates, total in hospital are doubling every two weeks, so they'll be hitting lockdown figures for total in hospital over there too.

 

10 minutes ago, monasqueen said:

Sweden is not necessarily the country that the UK needs to follow. Their cases are rising again, fast. They've had a 70% increase in cases over the last week. They have also recently had a regional lockdown.

"It is “futile and immoral” to seek herd immunity as a protection from a pandemic, and the transmission of an infectious disease like Covid-19 cannot be fully halted without a vaccine, Sweden's chief epidemiologist Anders Tegnell has said."

Reading between the lines of this recent article, they are still trying to work out their best way forward.

 

Herd immunity in South Africa and Indian cities is absolutely real and it is bringing their pandemic to an end. In South Africa’s cities about 40% of people have Covid antibodies, and in Indian cities about 33% of people have them.

Sweden has ramped up testing. They haven’t yet seen much increase in hospital admissions with serious cases. They have recently withdrawn advice to the elderly to limit social contacts. They are rather focusing on their hot spots, but they are entirely managing with voluntary compliance to social distancing rules. In comparison, we are jailing!

The point is that crude repression does not work. No country has ever seen as politically acceptable to embrace heard strategy as a stated aim; and the official position of Tegnell is the same as before. In reality, we will be dealing with this respiratory illness in the same way as the other respiratory illnesses. Of course there are vaccines for flu and pneumonia... I have never had one.

 

[Albert Tatlock]

I think most of what is going on elsewhere we can't do much about.

However, we do have control here currently and should at all costs retain that protection.

Hard and increased policing and monitoring on those isolating and those they stay with. Especially getting nearer xmas.

Otherwise, black-eye Friday here might as well be named national covid-spread day. Statistically, given the numbers already breaching isolation rules, and the numbers likely returning, you can pretty much guarantee 30 to 50 rule breakers out with mates in pubs etc. on the 3 week run up to xmas.

Otherwise January to March will likely see another major lockdown here and lots of additional economic devastation.

This disease isn't controlled by the Lizard People...it is down to us to control - and monitor those selfish returning dickheads who don't understand, deny, or care sod all about risk.

[Lxxx]

6 minutes ago, Albert Tatlock said:

I think most of what is going on elsewhere we can't do much about.

However, we do have control here currently and should at all costs retain that protection.

Hard and increased policing and monitoring on those isolating and those they stay with. Especially getting nearer xmas.

Otherwise, black-eye Friday here might as well be named national covid-spread day. Statistically, given the numbers already breaching isolation rules, and the numbers likely returning, you can pretty much guarantee 30 to 50 rule breakers out with mates in pubs etc. on the 3 week run up to xmas.

Otherwise January to March will likely see another major lockdown here and lots of additional economic devastation.

This disease isn't controlled by the Lizard People...it is down to us to control - and monitor those selfish returning dickheads who don't understand, deny, or care sod all about risk.

You could have lifted this straight off Facebook where those who howl at the moon asking to be locked away forever reside.

[Albert Tatlock]

1 minute ago, Lxxx said:

You could have lifted this straight off Facebook where those who howl at the moon asking to be locked away forever reside.

Really? All I'm asking for is a few extra months till the vaccine is released and so the economy can stay wide open.

You not been watching the news across and seeing things actually being shut down and jobs lost?

[Cambon]

5 minutes ago, Lxxx said:

You could have lifted this straight off Facebook where those who howl at the moon asking to be locked away forever reside.

Not really, Lxxx. What AT says is true. However, we cannot afford another full lockdown. Those returning students need to be controlled or refused admission (which will not happen). 

[Cambon]

3 minutes ago, Albert Tatlock said:

Really? All I'm asking for is a few extra months till the vaccine is released and so the economy can stay wide open.

You not been watching the news across and seeing things actually being shut down and jobs lost?

This is it. All those earlier moaning about Guernseys brilliant test on arrival don't tell you that if you arrive there from the north of England, you isolate for 14 days anyway. Nearly all of our arrivals are from the north of England and have to isolate for 14 days. So same thing, no extra wasted money. 

[Albert Tatlock]

Reliable testing should also be introduced at the boat and airport waiting areas before xmas.

Keep that shit away from here and test anyone boarding wanting to come here...this could be one of the only covid-free holiday areas next year before any vaccine rollout is complete. Especially for those older types who like the MGP and railways etc.

[John Wright]

May be they’ll make self isolating quarantine as long as the word actually means.

( quarantine is mediaeval Venetian for 40 ). You got sent to an isolation island for 40 days if it was thought you’d got bubonic plague.

[AcousticallyChallenged]

Realistically, we need to be testing at the borders, not least, so that when we do get community spread, we can identify more quickly where it's coming from.

Regardless of the long-term plan, we need to make it through winter, and for a lot of hard-hit businesses, staying open is key to that. No covid is a key step to that for them.  We may not have the perfect solution, but we know that in the short-term it could be far worse. Every day in the UK, it's estimated that 100k more people are infected, that's more than an island's worth.

Evidence suggests R drops seasonally, as well as with various measures taken against it. So it doesn't have to last forever, plus vaccine trials are getting ever more promising.

It's not ideal for returning students to have to isolate, but a lot of them will appreciate what they have here, and not polishing off Nanna at the same time. I wouldn't be surprised if a good proportion stay rather than going back. I'm finishing off my doctorate here for that very reason.

[Albert Tatlock]

17 minutes ago, John Wright said:

May be they’ll make self isolating quarantine as long as the word actually means.

( quarantine is mediaeval Venetian for 40 ). You got sent to an isolation island for 40 days if it was thought you’d got bubonic plague.

Surely that was the GERMans?

[Zarley]

No more angling off Peel breakwater after this weekend.

 https://147-5433bc3297b05.radiocms.com/news/isle-of-man-news/security-tightened-at-islands-harbours-from-sunday/ 

[spoiledbratoframsey]

I guess they will install cameras.