pongo Posted October 29, 2020 Share Posted October 29, 2020 (edited) 15 minutes ago, trmpton said: Fair enough. Nearly everyone I know who falls into that category thinks we need to at the very least be allowing sponsored visits (with isolation) and working towards a gradual relaxation of border policies to allow them to travel more and bring friends and relatives here. I have not heard a single person mention relatives in this contect. And relatives have nothing to do with work anyhow. Everyone just thinks we're fortunate to be able to carry on as usual. And business is looking surprisingly ok, touch wood. 15 minutes ago, trmpton said: maybe it shows people weight what they are saying depending on the views of the person they are taking to. I genuinely know very few people under 70 who want to keep the borders as they are now. I doubt that anyone I know would have a clue whether I am for, against or indifferent with respect to govt Covid and border policy. I don't speak of it, only here. So I strongly doubt that applies with respect to what anyone has said to me. Apart from on this forum I don't hear anyone expressing great dissatisfaction. Or any big opinions. To be honest, I'd be fairly annoyed if people were talking about anything other than work, at work. Edited October 29, 2020 by pongo 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trmpton Posted October 29, 2020 Share Posted October 29, 2020 19 minutes ago, pongo said: I have not heard a single person mention relatives in this contect. And relatives have nothing to do with work anyhow. Everyone just thinks we're fortunate to be able to carry on as usual. And business is looking surprisingly ok, touch wood. I doubt that anyone I know would have a clue whether I am for, against or indifferent with respect to govt Covid and border policy. I don't speak of it, only here. So I strongly doubt that applies with respect to what anyone has said to me. Apart from on this forum I don't hear anyone expressing great dissatisfaction. Or any big opinions. To be honest, I'd be fairly annoyed if people were talking about anything other than work, at work. Who mentioned “at work”? I was talking about people I talk to in my life. If you only ever talk to people “at work” rather than at friends houses, to other family, at pubs, at hobbies and activities, then that might explain why your impression is different to mine. I also guess from your description of your work that nearly everyone you speak to is office based? Try asking a cross section of plumbers, butchers, entrepreneurs, artists, hoteliers, candlestick makers, lawyers, restaurant owners, decorators, animal homestay etc etc 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pongo Posted October 29, 2020 Share Posted October 29, 2020 (edited) 16 minutes ago, trmpton said: I also guess from your description of your work that nearly everyone you speak to is office based? Try asking a cross section of plumbers, butchers, entrepreneurs, artists, hoteliers, candlestick makers, lawyers, restaurant owners, decorators, animal homestay etc etc I don't know any candlestick makers but I doubt plumbers are suffering. Animal homestay seems a fairly random inclusion. Is that your line? ETA: local trades are doing great by all accounts. A lot of local spending has apparently been diverted into home improvements this year. Edited October 29, 2020 by pongo Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lxxx Posted October 29, 2020 Share Posted October 29, 2020 4 hours ago, Albert Tatlock said: Really? All I'm asking for is a few extra months till the vaccine is released and so the economy can stay wide open. You not been watching the news across and seeing things actually being shut down and jobs lost? What makes you think a vaccine is going to be effective? Even the head of the U.K. vaccine task force said any vaccine is likely to have 50% efficacy, at best. If we are pinning all our hopes on a rushed medical product that does not yet exist nor do we know whether it will be safe or effective long term then that’s a pretty flimsy premise to base your whole economic assumptions on. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trmpton Posted October 29, 2020 Share Posted October 29, 2020 (edited) 8 minutes ago, pongo said: I don't know any candlestick makers but I doubt plumbers are suffering. Animal homestay seems a fairly random inclusion. Is that your line? ETA: local trades are doing great by all accounts. A lot of local spending has apparently been diverted into home improvements this year. Hell no. I am really not a pet lover. it was in as an example of one of the many types of business that are surely struggling as a result of these border restrictions. If you ran a cattery or place that looks after people’s dogs while they were off island how do you think you would be doing right now? The point is look further than egaming, csp or finance and look at the bigger picture. Manufacturing? How are they doing attracting and retaining specialist skill sets at the moment? Edited October 29, 2020 by trmpton Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AcousticallyChallenged Posted October 29, 2020 Share Posted October 29, 2020 4 minutes ago, Lxxx said: What makes you think a vaccine is going to be effective? Even the head of the U.K. vaccine task force said any vaccine is likely to have 50% efficacy, at best. If we are pinning all our hopes on a rushed medical product that does not yet exist nor do we know whether it will be safe or effective long term then that’s a pretty flimsy premise to base your whole economic assumptions on. Well, herd immunity threshold is 60ish percent for a virus for uncontrolled spread isn't it? Surely the vaccine would accelerate that significantly. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pongo Posted October 29, 2020 Share Posted October 29, 2020 (edited) 4 minutes ago, trmpton said: If you ran a cattery or place that looks after people’s dogs while they were off island how do you think you would be doing right now? The point is look further than egaming, csp or finance and look at the bigger picture. Manufacturing? How are they doing attracting and retaining specialist skill sets at the moment? Sure but the economy is primarily about what brings in the most money. Keeping that ticking along as normally as possible is what matters most. Edited October 29, 2020 by pongo 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lxxx Posted October 29, 2020 Share Posted October 29, 2020 4 minutes ago, AcousticallyChallenged said: Well, herd immunity threshold is 60ish percent for a virus for uncontrolled spread isn't it? Surely the vaccine would accelerate that significantly. One of the most respected individuals on infectious diseases in the US Dr Anthony Fauci said only yesterday that the early Covid vaccines will likely only be capable of stopping symptoms not the actual spread of the virus. We’re rushing these products out without the level of testing they usually go through, so the first phase vaccines are mainly focused on attempting to stop people getting sick, not spreading the virus once they come into contact with it. So to base your whole border policy and subsequent economy on a premise like that is bonkers. We need to work on a strategy that doesn’t centre around a silver bullet that might not be coming in the short term, and plan for the worst, not the best. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hissingsid Posted October 29, 2020 Share Posted October 29, 2020 Everyone I speak to including tradesmen are busier than ever, the only worry is an ability to get certain materials. People who do pet boarding are turning to doggy day care . The Island cannot afford another lockdown mentally or financially and most people are doing ok. Unemployment is down again to about 800 or so and there are about 600 jobs on offer, obviously some are in IT or specialised so no help to the hospitality trade, there are vacancies for careers being advertised etc. obviously this situation can not go on for ever but it would be madness to lower our guard now. Noble’s is just getting back in stride and dealing with the long waiting lists that stacked up. It is a pity people could not enjoy what we have instead of moaning. 2 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gladys Posted October 29, 2020 Share Posted October 29, 2020 2 minutes ago, hissingsid said: Everyone I speak to including tradesmen are busier than ever, the only worry is an ability to get certain materials. People who do pet boarding are turning to doggy day care . Not much good if you run a cattery or your kennel facility is exactly that - kennels, and my guess is the doggy day care market is pretty saturated- everyone is doing it. The Island cannot afford another lockdown mentally or financially and most people are doing ok. Unemployment is down again to about 800 or so and there are about 600 jobs on offer, obviously some are in IT or specialised so no help to the hospitality trade, how good that is depends on the match of vacancies to the skills of the unemployed there are vacancies for careers assume you mean carers being advertised etc. obviously this situation can not go on for ever but it would be madness to lower our guard now. When will it be sensible to lower our guard? This virus isn't going anywhere soon. Noble’s is just getting back in stride and dealing with the long waiting lists that stacked up. It is a pity people could not enjoy what we have instead of moaning. People aren't moaning, just very concerned at the long term effects and the lack of a convincing long term plan. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
finlo Posted October 29, 2020 Share Posted October 29, 2020 15 minutes ago, hissingsid said: Everyone I speak to including tradesmen are busier than ever, the only worry is an ability to get certain materials. People who do pet boarding are turning to doggy day care . The Island cannot afford another lockdown mentally or financially and most people are doing ok. Unemployment is down again to about 800 or so and there are about 600 jobs on offer, obviously some are in IT or specialised so no help to the hospitality trade, there are vacancies for careers being advertised etc. obviously this situation can not go on for ever but it would be madness to lower our guard now. Noble’s is just getting back in stride and dealing with the long waiting lists that stacked up. It is a pity people could not enjoy what we have instead of moaning. Huge waiting lists at Nobles predated Covid by many year's! 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hissingsid Posted October 29, 2020 Share Posted October 29, 2020 True, but Covid has made it much worse, however they really are pulling out all the stops out to try and catch up the Liverpool hospitals have stopped non urgent ops now, friend of mine had their op cancelled this week. We do not want this to happen I know we have some catching up to do but non urgent ops are going ahead at Noble’s atm. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trmpton Posted October 29, 2020 Share Posted October 29, 2020 48 minutes ago, hissingsid said: Everyone I speak to including tradesmen are busier than ever, the only worry is an ability to get certain materials. People who do pet boarding are turning to doggy day care . The Island cannot afford another lockdown mentally or financially and most people are doing ok. Unemployment is down again to about 800 or so and there are about 600 jobs on offer, obviously some are in IT or specialised so no help to the hospitality trade, there are vacancies for careers being advertised etc. obviously this situation can not go on for ever but it would be madness to lower our guard now. Noble’s is just getting back in stride and dealing with the long waiting lists that stacked up. It is a pity people could not enjoy what we have instead of moaning. Those specialised jobs. What chances do you think we have of filling those when people who relocate here can’t actually see their loved ones anymore? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trmpton Posted October 29, 2020 Share Posted October 29, 2020 18 minutes ago, hissingsid said: True, but Covid has made it much worse, however they really are pulling out all the stops out to try and catch up the Liverpool hospitals have stopped non urgent ops now, friend of mine had their op cancelled this week. We do not want this to happen I know we have some catching up to do but non urgent ops are going ahead at Noble’s atm. Do you have any figures for occupancy rates in uk and Liverpool hospitals for the corresponding week in 2017? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wrighty Posted October 29, 2020 Share Posted October 29, 2020 3 hours ago, Albert Tatlock said: I know people working on this stuff first hand...they need another 4 months to double check any side affects...and get that down to a guaranteed low acceptable percentage and be sure it stays there. What’s an acceptable percentage of side effects to have a 50-50 chance of preventing a disease with an IFR, overall, of perhaps 0.5%? 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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