Black Mirror Posted November 10, 2020 Share Posted November 10, 2020 2 hours ago, BenFairfax said: Has anyone produced a flow diagram with the various options and put a probability to each option. No test 14 day isolation option is clearly safest regarding individual modulo risk of these people breaking isolation and household transmission but could model those risks. Imagine that has happened and profiled personality types who would break isolation and decided jail time, fines and Courier appearance is best control mechanism for such (anti social and reckless) personalities. One test options, Rachel made it clear 7 (or maybe 10) day test is optimal based on ability to detect infection and such people's ability to infect others. But still have household infection risk.... Two test options another bunch.... All I am thinking is have multi-factor model based on: Reliability of testing (including false positives/negatives and behaviour effects) Infectiousness Virulence Household infection Breaking isolation Speed detection of community outbreak ... It just seems here we go back and forth saying same things over and over again, when in fact now with a high level of confidence can put a precise measure of risk against various choices. When have those choices modeled from risk point of view, can move on to debate how to balance other factor's (personal freedoms and economy). being bit crude here since you would have feedback effect on economy and freedoms if an outbreak occured but at least this provides a starting point, for rational debate. There are never been a rational debate in the domain of public information. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Banker Posted November 10, 2020 Share Posted November 10, 2020 Looks like Howie still refusing to provide information on decisions taken on borders and returning residents!! https://www.manxradio.com/news/isle-of-man-news/comin-data-already-available-online-insists-quayle/ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nom de plume Posted November 10, 2020 Share Posted November 10, 2020 (edited) Another two cases today. Not in the community though - no sir. Just imagine if we tested on entry and on seven days - the horror. Edited November 10, 2020 by Nom de plume 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Barlow Posted November 10, 2020 Share Posted November 10, 2020 (edited) 5 hours ago, BenFairfax said: I do hate cheap sausages All down down to the spices and other additives. It's all lip, sphincter, spleen and whatever gets shovelled up from the slaughterhouse/butchers floor. Edited November 10, 2020 by Barlow Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Banker Posted November 10, 2020 Share Posted November 10, 2020 1 hour ago, Nom de plume said: Another two cases today. Not in the community though - no sir. Just imagine if we tested on entry and on seven days - the horror. The Facebook Karen’s are already demanding to know have they been on holidays or medical appointments or what!! Also have they been in community when statements clearly state none in community!! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Albert Tatlock Posted November 10, 2020 Share Posted November 10, 2020 5 hours ago, Banker said: Will this stop the mass panic over returning students if Manx students have test? https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/education-54888464 800 students returning for xmas by looks... https://www.manxradio.com/news/isle-of-man-news/more-than-90-of-students-planning-christmas-return/ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Dog's Dangly Bits Posted November 10, 2020 Share Posted November 10, 2020 2 minutes ago, Albert Tatlock said: 800 students returning for xmas by looks... https://www.manxradio.com/news/isle-of-man-news/more-than-90-of-students-planning-christmas-return/ Lots have returned or are returning right now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nom de plume Posted November 10, 2020 Share Posted November 10, 2020 12 minutes ago, Albert Tatlock said: 800 students returning for xmas by looks... https://www.manxradio.com/news/isle-of-man-news/more-than-90-of-students-planning-christmas-return/ Most will be back before the 1st weekend in December and fully isolated before the madness of Black Eye Friday & the rest of the holidays .... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thesultanofsheight Posted November 10, 2020 Share Posted November 10, 2020 (edited) 1 hour ago, Nom de plume said: Another two cases today. Not in the community though - no sir. Just imagine if we tested on entry and on seven days - the horror. And still no announcement about the covid death. It’s a matter of public interest and you would think necessary to quell unnecessary speculation and rumours etc which seem to be rife. Still nothing. Plus the two more cases today: http://www.iomtoday.co.im/article.cfm?id=58969 its like they don’t want to confront the awkward reality now that they can’t just bullshit their way around why we still don’t believe in testing for returnees and other measures etc. Edited November 10, 2020 by thesultanofsheight Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Dog's Dangly Bits Posted November 10, 2020 Share Posted November 10, 2020 8 minutes ago, thesultanofsheight said: And still no announcement about the covid death. It’s a matter of public interest and you would think necessary to quell unnecessary speculation and rumours etc which seem to be rife. Still nothing. Plus the two more cases today: http://www.iomtoday.co.im/article.cfm?id=58969 its like they don’t want to confront the awkward reality now that they can’t just bullshit their way around why we still don’t believe in testing for returnees and other measures etc. They've already announced the person died from Covid. What is there to clarify? It's only rife with the Angry from Onchans and the other Facebook pitchfork idiots. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nom de plume Posted November 10, 2020 Share Posted November 10, 2020 8 minutes ago, thesultanofsheight said: And still no announcement about the covid death. It’s a matter of public interest and you would think necessary to quell unnecessary speculation and rumours etc which seem to be rife. Still nothing. Plus the two more cases today: http://www.iomtoday.co.im/article.cfm?id=58969 its like they don’t want to confront the awkward reality now that they can’t just bullshit their way around why we still don’t believe in testing for returnees and other measures etc. In Liverpool they are actively encouraging the whole of the city to go for a test ... ... meanwhile, nothing to see here. As I’ve mentioned before, it’s either amazing Govt policy (pretend it’s not here and hope it doesn’t pop up in the community when it may well be too late) or sheer stupidity. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thesultanofsheight Posted November 10, 2020 Share Posted November 10, 2020 4 minutes ago, The Dog's Dangly Bits said: They've already announced the person died from Covid. What is there to clarify? There’s lots to clarify if they don’t want those sort of loonies posting crap all over the place about it. The amount of rubbish exchanged by idiots online would suggest that clear messaging from government regarding the circumstances of the death is really important. After all it is the first death they’ve had in about 6 months but it doesn’t seem even worthy of explanation which is leading to a lot of nutty claims about cover-ups especially over the official stats which said there had been no hospital admissions or hospital deaths with covid when many are now assuming there have been. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Dog's Dangly Bits Posted November 10, 2020 Share Posted November 10, 2020 Just now, thesultanofsheight said: There’s lots to clarify if they don’t want those sort of loonies posting crap all over the place about it. The amount of rubbish exchanged by idiots online would suggest that clear messaging from government regarding the circumstances of the death is really important. After all it is the first death they’ve had in about 6 months but it doesn’t seem even worthy of explanation which is leading to a lot of nutty claims about cover-ups especially over the official stats which said there had been no hospital admissions or hospital deaths with covid when many are now assuming there have been. It's clear as day and the statement couldn't be clearer. Someone died from Covid. That is what killed them. It might be uncomfortable for some people but the statement said so. If the person had died from something else but happened to have covid they would have said. That isn't what happened. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thesultanofsheight Posted November 10, 2020 Share Posted November 10, 2020 1 minute ago, The Dog's Dangly Bits said: It's clear as day and the statement couldn't be clearer. Yeah right. That’s why there’s huge internet speculation out there which is pretty unhelpful to government in the overall scheme of things and probably unhelpful to the family affected as well having loonies speculate about various conspiracies surrounding the reporting of hospital admissions. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Non-Believer Posted November 10, 2020 Share Posted November 10, 2020 When one watches the UK COVID press conferences there seems to be one major difference between theirs and ours. Whilst Boris and Co. say their bit and give their assurances, the delivery of the science part is always left to the scientists, Vallance, Whitty, van Tam etc. Compare that to IoM conferences where it's almost always purely the Howie and Ashy show with our science professionals being mostly relegated to the back seat (when there's not being puerile attempts made to actually belittle them with alleged anonymous letter revelations), if they're there at all. Yet these science professionals often have to have given public addresses as part of their professional qualifications; they are more than capable of such. So why are they being kept in the background to such a degree? 6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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