IOM Covid removing restrictions

[trmpton]

16 minutes ago, Roger Mexico said:

There's a few other things you need to be careful of here.  Admissions to hospital with Covid may slow down or even drop, simply because there are no more suitable beds left in particular hospitals.  What you really need to look at in the number of patients in hospital:

while numbers are not near the maximum of just under 20,000 in the Spring yet, they're already approaching 15,000.  Because hospital stays with Covid are quite long (I've seen two weeks as a median), numbers will continue to rise even if admissions fall.

Two technical points that apply to all these UK Department of Health graphs.  The different shaped rise in the Spring is due in part to lack of data for various parts of the country and hospitals at the start, plus lack of testing meaning that already-hospitalised patients may all have been included at once.

Secondly you'l  notice my graph as a different colour scheme because it shows the four UK nations separately.  Some of these, particularly Scotland and NI, tend to come in later than the others by a few days.  So if you just look at the 'combined' UK figures (shown just in blue) it looks like they are starting to level off because the last few days don't actually include the others yet. 

You can toggle between the two views, but they recently changed the default from showing separately as above, to the 'combined' one.  Sometimes spinning is quite subtle.

Do you think the figures would look different if both “waves” had started in February? Or is there an element of seasonal impact?

[TheTeapot]

Seems to be a little less hoaxer chat around the internet, although the vaccine news sent a few people off the rails the other day. Fair bit less of the natural herd immunty pushers too. Maybe people are waking up.

[Nom de plume]

3 minutes ago, TheTeapot said:

Seems to be a little less hoaxer chat around the internet, although the vaccine news sent a few people off the rails the other day. Fair bit less of the natural herd immunty pushers too. Maybe people are waking up.

Or just worn down & exasperated.

[trmpton]

2 minutes ago, TheTeapot said:

Seems to be a little less hoaxer chat around the internet, although the vaccine news sent a few people off the rails the other day. Fair bit less of the natural herd immunty pushers too. Maybe people are waking up.

Go on then.  I will bite.

If there isn’t even a slight degree of herd immunity how do you correlate the differences between London end for example Liverpool between wave one and wave two?

[Roger Mexico]

1 minute ago, trmpton said:

Do you think the figures would look different if both “waves” had started in February? Or is there an element of seasonal impact?

The difference wouldn't be quite as striking, though there would still be some because of various other factors such as there being absolutely no precautions in the Spring and possible changes in treatment. 

In this particular case I don't think seasonality had much effect in the obvious way, but there may have been other factors which could have meant that the deaths in the Spring were even more underestimated that we thought they were (I'll look at the details some more later).

[Ham_N_Eggs]

2 minutes ago, trmpton said:

Do you think the figures would look different if both “waves” had started in February? Or is there an element of seasonal impact?

There is an element of seasonal impact but there is a larger impact of lack preparedness; taking the whole country out of lock down when the North wasn't ready; corrupt ppe contracts; the Cummings factor; lacking of closing down the main area of infection (schools and universities); and eat out to help was just plain stupid. 

 

 

[Ham_N_Eggs]

1 minute ago, trmpton said:

Go on then.  I will bite.

If there isn’t even a slight degree of herd immunity how do you correlate the differences between London end for example Liverpool between wave one and wave two?

The big rise today was coming from the South specifically the London regions.

[TheTeapot]

 

20 minutes ago, trmpton said:

Go on then.  I will bite.

If there isn’t even a slight degree of herd immunity how do you correlate the differences between London end for example Liverpool between wave one and wave two?

I think you are far too quick to come to conclusions, it has been clear from the infection maps that the wave has been spreading south, (look them up) which is why the lockdown came in instead of the tiers when things started getting a bit more serious in London. I think, although I haven't fully studied, that London rises are now pretty much right up there as bad as anywhere else.

Also, make sure you understand what I mean by natural herd immunity. I'm talking the let it rip/protect the vulnerable type proposal as advocated by the likes of The Great Barrington declaration etc, I'm not disputing that there will be some benefits from slow acquired immunity. Its a question of maths really. Here's a strong rebuttal if you feel like reading it, I recommend everyone does so https://www.johnsnowmemo.com/

Many people, as previously discussed at length on here, point north and squeak 'look at Sweden'. Have a read of this report from today https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/nov/12/covid-infections-in-sweden-surge-dashing-hopes-of-herd-immunity

Be interesting watching what is going to happen in the US over the next few months, the federal government completely gave up and their case loads across lots of states are huge.

Edited November 12, 2020 by TheTeapot

[Anyone]

2 hours ago, wrighty said:

Ratio of admissions to deaths is not that different, testing is obviously out due to the massive capacity increase like just about everywhere in the world. 
 

The current UK situation is impacting on our healthcare here. Just today I’ve tried to deal with a handful of referrals that have had treatment in UK that hasn’t worked out and can I sort it here, or patients who really ought to go across for treatment but can’t as their capacity is gone. Only 1 out of 8 theatres running, that sort of thing. Don’t just take my word for it - listen to radio 4, or watch BBC’s hospital programme. We’re still doing elective work - full orthopaedic capacity this week, no cancellations as far as I know. 
 

I’d like to think that we’re nearly through it. Vaccine news is encouraging, and if we can just keep it under wraps here for the next couple of months we could be home and dry. Overall the government have done well, certainly compared with Boris et al. 

I think it’s unfair to compare what has happened here to the UK . I’ll admit Blundering Boris has been a disaster. But closing the border in a sea locked Island no one wants to come to anyone is hardly brain science - of course it was going to work. Boris has a huge country to run with all the concomitant issues. No idea about the rest - I suppose you mean if we get really Ill here we die. Fact is all we have here is a glorified A&E hospital. Not my view , just what a UK based med said. 

[BenFairfax]

41 minutes ago, trmpton said:

If there isn’t even a slight degree of herd immunity how do you correlate the differences between London end for example Liverpool between wave one and wave two?

Seasonal flu typically see's outbreak in the North first and South later in Winter, that just an imperial fact. Why, I suggest because of weather getting worse quicker in North. [As mentioned before when wave gets to London Jersey going to get a shock.]

[wrighty]

14 minutes ago, Anyone said:

No idea...

[Anyone]

6 minutes ago, wrighty said:

Yes very funny , taken out of context though. Trust me I’m not a doctor.

[Albert Tatlock]

3 hours ago, Albert Tatlock said:

Don't think so...especially when the German fire brigade turned up.

No one got that?  You ill travelled lot you.

[Anyone]

Used to be here ( not that long ago ) that if you broke a limb here Nobles first ( nowhere else to go ) then to the UK to get the broken bone set properly. I recall the name as well but won’t repeat it as all medics look after their own . Sod the patients. 

[BenFairfax]

Here are my observations on shift of policy and organization:

• Good, a medic got to talk directly and present a medical rather than political perspective.
• CM reference a "Clinical advisory group" a term I do not recall, but a model of CM standing at front and acting as a moan deflector allows medics to get on with their jobs. Also, having a "group" rather than identifiable individuals reduces chances of these people being harassed by nutters while in Tesco (if nutter cornered me in Tesco I would just agree with whatever nutter said and blame other unnamed people in group) 
• All household isolation, which many (including myself) saw as the weakest link in present schema, finally been closed.
• Even with 900 students returning, if get past next 2 weeks without community outbreak (i.e. before household isolation kicks in) we are looking a lot stronger.
• We now being told government will only release case information only when contract tracing has been completed. Note sure what happens if unable to trace all contacts and perhaps not find source?
• During today's update, only Paul from Manx TV really tried to hold MKHs to account. He may lose few brownie points with MHKs when asking for the next interview but should be congratulated for making a stand after the cluster of cases.

Over all I think policy move was absolutely bang on! The people with close family who cannot visit I have some sympathy for..... Also, be useful to clarity exactly where returning people will be quarantined since not great idea for public to populate these destinations at the same time.

Edited November 12, 2020 by BenFairfax
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