quilp Posted November 15, 2020 Share Posted November 15, 2020 33 minutes ago, GreyWolf said: Having Just watched the Moulton interview with Dr Glover she came across as calm and very intelligent someone we need in this crisis to be on the team to help guide us through. https://www.manxradio.com/news/isle-of-man-news/scientist-calls-for-second-week-testing-for-isolating-households/ Glad Dr. Glover is still on the case. A sensible measure, it isn't going to go down well in some households. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wrighty Posted November 15, 2020 Share Posted November 15, 2020 3 hours ago, John Wright said: Not sure you can be as dogmatic as that. Having detectable Covid by PCR doesn’t mean you’re infectious. Bits of it hang around, inactive, not infectious, but detectable. Having an undetectable Covid test doesn’t mean you haven’t got it, it doesn’t even mean you aren’t infectious. The science seems to say infectious ness is at highest just before detectability. What we can be certain of is that we are working with risk. We have to agree what risk is low enough to be acceptable, especially with other tools, like efficient track & trace, keeping people who are detectable out in the first place ( especially now it’s explained that the 7% is a false and very low underestimation.) If you are PCR negative, and assuming adequate swabbing, are you, at that moment, contagious? I think probably not. Studies on viral culture - growing virus in vitro - suggest about an 8 day window of shedding ‘live’, and therefore catchable, virus from shortly after exposure. It is a complex situation, with each time point having a statistical distribution of probability of being symptomatic, contagious and PCR positive. And those distributions are not identical. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Mexico Posted November 15, 2020 Share Posted November 15, 2020 3 hours ago, John Wright said: Not sure you can be as dogmatic as that. Having detectable Covid by PCR doesn’t mean you’re infectious. Bits of it hang around, inactive, not infectious, but detectable. There do seem to be ways of distinguishing historical cases like that from active ones. From a recent New Zealand media release: Of the three historical cases: 1 returned from Mexico in October. Their day 12 test was positive, but they remained asymptomatic and had a high Ct value. We now believe this case to be consistent with an earlier overseas infection. They are now classified as recovered. 1 arrived from Los Angeles in October. Their day 12 test was positive, but they remained asymptomatic and had a high Ct value. We now believe this case to be consistent with an earlier overseas infection. They are now classified as recovered. 1 additional case returned a high Ct value and is classified as recovered. This only seems to decidable after several tests over time though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lxxx Posted November 16, 2020 Share Posted November 16, 2020 10 hours ago, Cambon said: Sorry, but I think you are wrong. In fact, I think the opposite. I think the isolation and safety will attract people, especially the independently wealthy. I agreed with Pongo and your point above. It will attract people who want that but it will also lose individuals and dissuade businesses who want to be more plugged in to the wider economy. There is still time to have both, with the right forward-thinking and roadmap. However I am sceptical we have the right brains in the right positions to deliver. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoTailT Posted November 16, 2020 Share Posted November 16, 2020 It looks like the cartoonist that did Dr Glover's beach one is at it again. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
quilp Posted November 16, 2020 Share Posted November 16, 2020 30 mins of opinion on the subject of vaccines, and probably too long for the short-attention spans on here. Will the process of introducing vaccines result in bringing more lockdowns until they get it right, if they ever do? Adding to complacency? Dulling sensibilities? Entirely possible if not probable, imo. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the stinking enigma Posted November 16, 2020 Share Posted November 16, 2020 They always throw the miracle vaccine one about when the figures are looking bad. They did the same last time, trump did it nearly all the way through. That said, I didn't watch the video quilpster, never do. In fact I barely watch the ones I post myself. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Old Git Posted November 16, 2020 Share Posted November 16, 2020 (edited) Jersey talking about possible lockdown in December, maybe over Christmas, if people don’t start following the rules. Triple testing at borders. Days 0, 5 and 10 Hospitality closed at 10 Gatherings reduced Edited November 16, 2020 by The Old Git 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lxxx Posted November 16, 2020 Share Posted November 16, 2020 36 minutes ago, The Old Git said: Jersey talking about possible lockdown in December, maybe over Christmas, if people don’t start following the rules. Triple testing at borders. Days 0, 5 and 10 Hospitality closed at 10 Gatherings reduced Let's hope we don't go down that route. Not sure what closing a pub at 10 instead of 11 does for case numbers other than force a load of people back to someone's house for a few more. Let's be sensible and not just copy the knee jerk decisions of other jurisdictions. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Albert Tatlock Posted November 16, 2020 Share Posted November 16, 2020 https://www.manxradio.com/news/isle-of-man-news/medicine-laws-to-be-updated-ahead-of-vaccine-rollout/ Well, I guess there are at least 30 darts teams not doing much darts most evenings. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Old Git Posted November 16, 2020 Share Posted November 16, 2020 26 minutes ago, Lxxx said: Not sure what closing a pub at 10 instead of 11 does for case numbers other than force a load of people back to someone's house for a few more. But no more than 10 people... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lxxx Posted November 16, 2020 Share Posted November 16, 2020 15 minutes ago, The Old Git said: But no more than 10 people... Because the virus respects small gatherings but not medium sized ones.... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Banker Posted November 16, 2020 Share Posted November 16, 2020 35 minutes ago, Albert Tatlock said: https://www.manxradio.com/news/isle-of-man-news/medicine-laws-to-be-updated-ahead-of-vaccine-rollout/ Well, I guess there are at least 30 darts teams not doing much darts most evenings. Guernsey well ahead of us with plans as usual! https://www.islandfm.com/news/guernsey-news/plans-for-up-to-675-a-day-to-get-covid-19-jab/ 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTeapot Posted November 16, 2020 Share Posted November 16, 2020 2 minutes ago, Banker said: Guernsey well ahead of us with plans as usual. There's an awful lot of 'coulds' and 'don't knows' in that report. You jumping ahead and reading things that aren't there AGAIN Banker? 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nom de plume Posted November 16, 2020 Share Posted November 16, 2020 1 hour ago, Banker said: Guernsey well ahead of us with plans as usual! https://www.islandfm.com/news/guernsey-news/plans-for-up-to-675-a-day-to-get-covid-19-jab/ In fairness to the IOM Govt. my information is that all doctors surgeries have been put on standby to vaccinate. We have already pre-ordered the vaccine and the wait is on. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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