IOM Covid removing restrictions

[quilp]

34 minutes ago, MadAsHell said:

Have we stopped testing people with symptoms? Or people admitted into the hospital?

No. Brother-in-law having endoscopy procedure today. Had a covid test on Sunday even though he had no symptoms, then in self-isolation till today. 

Edited December 2, 2020 by quilp
Xtra

[Lxxx]

3 minutes ago, Capt_Mainwaring said:

Do people really believe that a highly contagious virus with little to no herd immunity would really be circulating without serious issues? You only have to look at Jersey to see how, with community spread AND restrictions, things have snowballed in less than 2 weeks. Think of the number of events here, packed pubs and restaurants (list goes on), no social distancing or restrictions on care home visits for example, and then think about what you are saying.

Guernsey tested thousands of people and found no cases whatsoever.

Based purely on science of virus transmission, especially at this time of year, it could not be circulating without detection.

There is a high likelihood it is here but it is working it's way through the population in much the same way the rest of the family of coronaviruses do at this time of year, every year.

If you were a self employed tradesperson feeling under the weather you can't afford two weeks enforced time off work at the moment so you soldier on, same with a retail shop worker etc etc... 

Admittedly it might not be rampant but if 14 days isolation isn't 100% effective at least one visitor to the island will have been active when released. Which indicates we're doing pretty well here so far, no need to rock the boat and end up like Jersey.

[The Old Git]

Jersey hospital closed to all visitors from today. 

[Roger Mexico]

44 minutes ago, trmpton said:

Not missing the point at all.  People were posting that it can’t be in the community here as we would know.

Of course it’s in the community here, and the identified cluster (doesn’t mean it’s the only one) in Guernsey proved it can be spreading in the community and no one notice.

Were they lucky that a sheer fluke meant they identified it and could therefore isolate some of those positive? Yes.  Does that show we should be doing much more widespread testing? Yes.

No one has said it can't be in the community - only that it can't be in the community for long without being detected.  Certainly not for the months on end that you seem to imagine.   There will very likely have been undiagnosed cases among those isolating.  Individual cases may get through isolation or through another route (eg port workers) - wait long enough and even low-probability occurrences will occur. 

But such outbreaks will either die out naturally (maybe 60% of cases don't pass it on to anyone) or spread to enough people to be detected.  If you have enough testing and encourage people with any likely symptoms to get tested, then that will get picked up earlier; tracing, contact testing and isolation will take place sooner and the virus spread will be stopped.  Which is why there should be more testing.  New Zealand encourages everyone with even cold symptoms to have them checked, our government seems to believe that people have no such civic responsibility, which says a lot more about them than us.

[Cascarino]

Any word on a defined policy from the government to get us through the next few months? The parameters are relatively clear now.

Hopefully it will not just be a cut and paste from the UK as our risks and situation are different.

They mention a rate of infection that will allow border restrictions to ease but are not clearly defining the measurement or at what rate it will change. Ireland is much lower now. Are they considering other countries (not just the UK) when setting border policies?

We have the opportunity to progress a speedy vaccination program but there is no clarity on timeframe or priority. Are our vaccination priorities necessarily the same as the UK, if we have a closed border with no community transmission? Should we be focussing on people who are going off island who may have the most risk?

If someone is vaccinated, will they be subject to the same restrictions? On the basis that we have a low risk already and the vaccines are circa 95% effective, that person would be a minuscule risk to the island. Will they then be allowed to travel freely without the requirement to isolate? We may have this situation by the start of January so it would be useful if the government made a clear statement. How are we going to monitor this? Will we accept vaccinations from other jurisdictions? Will we accept private vaccinations on island?

With the scenarios changing rapidly now, a level 4 border restriction is not a logical approach from January as there are new factors which change the risk profile significantly. The government needs to define it now so we can prepare for it and not leave it to last minute decisions.

Any announcement will need a certain degree of flexibility but there is no need to keep it a government secret. The civil service have so far refused to engage with the general populace but there are a great many entities from businesses to sporting activities that are willing to work within a framework but are not been given a chance to input in to it.

[horatiotheturd]

31 minutes ago, Cascarino said:

Any word on a defined policy from the government to get us through the next few months? The parameters are relatively clear now.

Hopefully it will not just be a cut and paste from the UK as our risks and situation are different.

They mention a rate of infection that will allow border restrictions to ease but are not clearly defining the measurement or at what rate it will change. Ireland is much lower now. Are they considering other countries (not just the UK) when setting border policies?

We have the opportunity to progress a speedy vaccination program but there is no clarity on timeframe or priority. Are our vaccination priorities necessarily the same as the UK, if we have a closed border with no community transmission? Should we be focussing on people who are going off island who may have the most risk?

If someone is vaccinated, will they be subject to the same restrictions? On the basis that we have a low risk already and the vaccines are circa 95% effective, that person would be a minuscule risk to the island. Will they then be allowed to travel freely without the requirement to isolate? We may have this situation by the start of January so it would be useful if the government made a clear statement. How are we going to monitor this? Will we accept vaccinations from other jurisdictions? Will we accept private vaccinations on island?

With the scenarios changing rapidly now, a level 4 border restriction is not a logical approach from January as there are new factors which change the risk profile significantly. The government needs to define it now so we can prepare for it and not leave it to last minute decisions.

Any announcement will need a certain degree of flexibility but there is no need to keep it a government secret. The civil service have so far refused to engage with the general populace but there are a great many entities from businesses to sporting activities that are willing to work within a framework but are not been given a chance to input in to it.

Nope.  They have no clue.

They have had months to make  a public road map available based on a vaccine becoming available, the only real variables being the date available, the number they can get here at once, and the logistics involved in administering it.

I would hope that since they have known the vaccine is coming for a few weeks now and been able to use that tine to understand the logistics around delivery and actual administration that we can expect a detailed road map tomorrow.   Presumably to clearly state priorities for being vaccinated, timescales, a percentage of the population they want to see vaccinated before border restrictions ease, the required infection rate in the UK to open up again (and specifica on how that will be measured) etc etc

 

They won't though

They will tel us they will "be keeping a close eye on our near neighbours, and applying manx solutions to manx problems"

 

Unfortunately to fix the biggest "Manx Problem" the turkeys would need to vote for Christmas, all stand away and let the top civil servants and scientists do their thing in collaboration with cabinet Office etc to develop a strong unique business case for the island over the next few years and give people and businesses a real incentive to take advantage of some of our uniqueness and relocate here.

[Nom de plume]

Let us hope (for once) that tomorrow's Covid briefing finally sheds some light on how this Island escapes the clutches of the virus.

However, there would be no surprise if Howie utters those now famous words .......

"The Council of Ministers are keeping a close eye on the infection rates in the United Kingdom & we've all agreed that now is not the time to ease restrictions, therefore we will remain at Level 4 of our borders framework".

 

[Cambon]

It is all well and good slagging off the government, but we know about as much about this vaccine as we knew about Covid-19 this time last year. 

What appears from this vaccine so far, from what has been said on several media reports is thus:

1, It has been approved for emergency situations.

2, Hancock said only the elderly and vulnerable will definitely be vaccinated. People who have had the virus will still be vaccinated. He will then wait and see how it affects deaths and hospital figures.

3, 5 minutes later, scientist says it could be dangerous to give the vaccine to people who have had the virus.

4, Nobody knows if people who have had the vaccine will become spreaders.

5, What long term side effects will the vaccine have. It has been suggested that it could cause long term damage to children's immune systems.

6, Ashy says he wants everyone over 18 to be vaccinated. Will 17 year olds be vaccinated next year, 16 year olds in two years, etc.? 

There are many other questions, but let's start with these. 

 

Edited December 2, 2020 by Cambon

[Nom de plume]

1 minute ago, Cambon said:

It is all well and good slagging off the government, but we know about as much about this vaccine as we knew about Covid-19 this time last year. 

What appears from this vaccine so far, from what has been said on several media reports is thus:

1, It has been approved for emergency situations.

2, Hancock said only the elderly and vulnerable will definitely be vaccinated. People who have had the virus will still be vaccinated.

3, 5 minutes later, scientist says it could be dangerous to give the vaccine to people who have had the virus.

4, Nobody knows people who have had the vaccine will become spreaders.

5, What long term side effects will the vaccine have. It has been suggested that it could cause long term damage to children's immune systems.

6, Ashy says he wants everyone over 18 to be vaccinated. Will 17 year olds be vaccinated next year, 16 year olds in two years, etc.? 

There are many other questions, but let's start with these. 

 

I'm reading that they are firing it into care home inhabitants pretty much from the get go.

It's clearly going to be the elderly & vulnerable first (quite rightly too).

We'll have our lot sorted by the New Year if they get their skates on and the shit arrives on time.

[ellanvannin2010]

5 minutes ago, Nom de plume said:

Let us hope (for once) that tomorrow's Covid briefing finally sheds some light on how this Island escapes the clutches of the virus.

However, there would be no surprise if Howie utters those now famous words .......

"The Council of Ministers are keeping a close eye on the infection rates in the United Kingdom & we've all agreed that now is not the time to ease restrictions, therefore we will remain at Level 4 of our borders framework".

 

To be fair did they not say that it would be level 4 over Christmas at last weeks lecture?

[yootalkin2me]

44 minutes ago, Nom de plume said:

I'm reading that they are firing it into care home inhabitants pretty much from the get go.

It's clearly going to be the elderly & vulnerable first (quite rightly too).

We'll have our lot sorted by the New Year if they get their skates on and the shit arrives on time.

And health workers and Nursing Home Staff and emergency services staff.

[MadAsHell]

2 minutes ago, yootalkin2me said:

And health workers and Nursing Home Staff and emergency services staff.

MHK's and estate agents first.

[yootalkin2me]

Just now, MadAsHell said:

MHK's and estate agents first.

And Advocates, tbey should get it first and hopefully that'll be the bad batch that'll not kill 'em but make them ill enough to review their career choices.

[Cascarino]

1 hour ago, Cambon said:

It is all well and good slagging off the government, but we know about as much about this vaccine as we knew about Covid-19 this time last year. 

What appears from this vaccine so far, from what has been said on several media reports is thus:

1, It has been approved for emergency situations.

2, Hancock said only the elderly and vulnerable will definitely be vaccinated. People who have had the virus will still be vaccinated. He will then wait and see how it affects deaths and hospital figures.

3, 5 minutes later, scientist says it could be dangerous to give the vaccine to people who have had the virus.

4, Nobody knows if people who have had the vaccine will become spreaders.

5, What long term side effects will the vaccine have. It has been suggested that it could cause long term damage to children's immune systems.

6, Ashy says he wants everyone over 18 to be vaccinated. Will 17 year olds be vaccinated next year, 16 year olds in two years, etc.? 

There are many other questions, but let's start with these. 

 

It's not government bashing. But we must plan for the next stages now. We have enough information to make informed decisions now and not just wait and see. They may change slightly over the next few months but at least there will be a roadmap we can plan around. The island has already suffered economically. The earlier we can take action in a safe way the quicker we can recover.

Regardless of whether you wish to be vaccinated or not, there must be some thought process around the scenarios. If the world changes again then the plans can change, but at least we can understand the rationale (as being allowed to discuss it with government is not feasible) and act accordingly.

[Lxxx]

2 hours ago, Cambon said:

It is all well and good slagging off the government, but we know about as much about this vaccine as we knew about Covid-19 this time last year. 

What appears from this vaccine so far, from what has been said on several media reports is thus:

1, It has been approved for emergency situations.

2, Hancock said only the elderly and vulnerable will definitely be vaccinated. People who have had the virus will still be vaccinated. He will then wait and see how it affects deaths and hospital figures.

3, 5 minutes later, scientist says it could be dangerous to give the vaccine to people who have had the virus.

4, Nobody knows if people who have had the vaccine will become spreaders.

5, What long term side effects will the vaccine have. It has been suggested that it could cause long term damage to children's immune systems.

6, Ashy says he wants everyone over 18 to be vaccinated. Will 17 year olds be vaccinated next year, 16 year olds in two years, etc.? 

There are many other questions, but let's start with these. 

 

Great post.

So many unknowns at the moment in relation to this, it's effectively a live trial so we need to make sure we have a plan in place to cater for a whole number of eventualities.

What do we do if the first participants in care homes suffer from antibody-dependant enhancement, which worsens the consequences of infection in vaccinated individuals rather than protect. It has happened before in previous coronavirus vaccine trials.

What happens if the vaccine doesn't stop you spreading the infection just alleviates symptoms? 

We have lots of effective vaccines that have worked in the past and have helped to contribute to the society we all enjoy now, but they all went through much longer rigorous testing. 

Do we shut up shop again and close the borders if things get worse and not better? Can the island's economy cope in such a situation?