IOM Covid removing restrictions

[Banker]

5 minutes ago, AlanShimmin said:

Her family are totally free to go an visit her in the UK and then isolate on their return. 

 

I keep hearing stories of people who think they've been banned from seeing family in the UK. It can't be further from the truth. The borders open for them to go to the UK and come back. 

As you know very well everyone is referring to family visiting from U.K., what difference does it make if they are isolating for 14 days anyway? There's a lot of elderly people on island who are unable to travel.

[TheTeapot]

23 minutes ago, Gladys said:

That's fair enough, but if measures keep on f*cking the economy and actually add to non-covid health issues, then you are pretty much screwed anyway. 

And if your hospitals are full because everyone's got covid? I can't quite get my head around people still thinking just let it go as a viable plan after nearly a year of this madness.

[Gladys]

13 minutes ago, TheTeapot said:

And if your hospitals are full because everyone's got covid? I can't quite get my head around people still thinking just let it go as a viable plan after nearly a year of this madness.

Because most people aren't badly affected by it.  Lockdown is clearly not working, resistance of people observing it and when it is eased, up go the figures.  The UK has had 9 months of ineffective measures -  everyone looks at the reduced figures during a lockdown and think it is under control, but it isn't as it goes straight back up. 

I can't get my head round how people think lockdown is a viable plan.  It was probably the best plan at first, but now and repeatedly? 

[quilp]

The UK has had ineffective measures mostly because various groups won't play ball and continually flout those measures. Religious groups, trendy-do's off to party in houses and flats. It's easy to work out. Maybe with a successful vaccine and proper distancing and precaution for a minimal time the virus might be more contained or even eradicated, and shine a light on the cloud of doom you're envisaging.

I hope I'm wrong but I do believe that we're in for a small but hopefully short shock over here. Come mid, end of January maybe. That's why we still need to on our toes. And think pure thoughts 😁

[TheTeapot]

The list of things the UK has done wrong is enormous and sadly things are going to continue to get worse there. And as for the US...

What's your specific new years fear for here Quilp? Just inevitable?

[Non-Believer]

UK is forecasting a possible 19,000 NHS COVID bed cases by the end of December. Current figure is said to be 14,000.

[snowman]

Wrong thread

Edited December 18, 2020 by snowman

[Hmmmm]

So todays results were thus:

As at 4.30pm on 18 Dec: Total tests: 19848 Concluded tests: 19835 Confirmed cases: 373 New cases: 0 Awaiting results: 13 Awaiting tests: 38 Number of deaths: Hospital - 7, Community - 18 Total active cases: Community - 0, Hospital - 1, Isolated individual (non-community) - 2

Yesterdays were

As at 4.20pm on 17 Dec: Total tests: 19848 Concluded tests: 19835 Confirmed cases: 373 New cases: 0 Awaiting results: 13 Awaiting tests: 53 Number of deaths: Hospital - 7, Community - 18 Total active cases: Community - 0, Hospital - 1, Isolated individual (non-community) - 3

 

Snap? misprint or no tests in last 24 hours?  

[rachomics]

On 12/17/2020 at 6:46 PM, John Wright said:

It’s the same test. Whether DHSC can maintain turnaround times and accuracy is speculation. It’s not her test. It’s a PCR test, on a machine owned by the DHSC. 

It's not the same PCR test and the intellectual property (IP) is owned by Taxa Genomics. It was a multiplex PCR test designed specifically for the Isle of Man with two viral targets and a human RNA swabbing check IN THE SAME TUBE. To run that using commercially-available tests would cost three times as much as they have to be carried out separately.

There are as many different PCR tests as there are scientists that design them. Some are better than others and I designed a damn-near infallable one for the Isle of Man because I wanted an almost non-existant false positive and false negative rate.

The one they were using until now (given my estimation of stocks) was the one I designed and Taxa Genomics supplied, which included the human RNA check for swabbing and two viral targets. 

I believe they're looking at multiple other suppliers for PCR testing but NONE of these include the swabbing test as it's highly specialised and - as far as I am aware - not available commercially.

So the false negative rate will increase as the human RNA swabbing check was specifically included to reduce the false negative rate, give we're a small island community and false negatives would be a Bad Thing. 

Edited December 18, 2020 by rachomics

[Banker]

1 minute ago, rachomics said:

It's not the same PCR test. There are as many different PCR tests as there are scientists that run them. Some are better than others and I designed a damn-near infallable one for the Isle of Man because I wanted an almost non-existant false positive and false negative rate.

The one they were using until now (given my estimation of stocks) was the one I designed and supplied, which included the human RNA check for swabbing and two viral targets. 

I believe they're looking at multiple other suppliers for PCR testing but NONE of these include the swabbing test as it's highly specialised and - as far as I am aware - not available commercially. So the false negative rate will increase as I included the human RNA swabbing check was specifically included to reduce the false negative rate, give we're a small island community and false negatives would be a Bad Thing. 

That would be a nightmare for those getting tests for hospital treatment to be told appointments cancelled and here’s 14 days quarantine as well!

[rachomics]

13 minutes ago, Hmmmm said:

So todays results were thus:

As at 4.30pm on 18 Dec: Total tests: 19848 Concluded tests: 19835 Confirmed cases: 373 New cases: 0 Awaiting results: 13 Awaiting tests: 38 Number of deaths: Hospital - 7, Community - 18 Total active cases: Community - 0, Hospital - 1, Isolated individual (non-community) - 2

Yesterdays were

As at 4.20pm on 17 Dec: Total tests: 19848 Concluded tests: 19835 Confirmed cases: 373 New cases: 0 Awaiting results: 13 Awaiting tests: 53 Number of deaths: Hospital - 7, Community - 18 Total active cases: Community - 0, Hospital - 1, Isolated individual (non-community) - 3

 

Snap? misprint or no tests in last 24 hours?  

What I've learnt recently is that if there's a problem or issue with on-Island testing since my departure then the CEO of DHSC and David Ashford absolutely will not be told about it. There will also be a significant amount of arse-covering and no-one is ever going to admit publicly if they ever get to the point of sending samples off-Island again. 

[Apple]

1 hour ago, rachomics said:

So the false negative rate will increase as the human RNA swabbing check was specifically included to reduce the false negative rate, give we're a small island community and false negatives would be a Bad Thing. 

Can't afford isolation and that is why I don't want a test now.

 

[Apple]

1 hour ago, rachomics said:

What I've learnt recently is that if there's a problem or issue with on-Island testing since my departure then the CEO of DHSC and David Ashford absolutely will not be told about it. There will also be a significant amount of arse-covering and no-one is ever going to admit publicly if they ever get to the point of sending samples off-Island again. 

The DHSC / Government don't want the accountability any more. They are only Strategic now.

I don't think DA is in charge anymore and he is being outmanoeuvred when it suits.

[Kopek]

Bit selfish?

[quilp]

3 hours ago, TheTeapot said:

The list of things the UK has done wrong is enormous and sadly things are going to continue to get worse there. And as for the US...

What's your specific new years fear for here Quilp? Just inevitable?

Mostly inevitable. People are still returning, not that I'm in any way against the returnees, and there's some who assume that the vaccine acts as a shield for them, causing them to inadvertently relax a little which may possibly induce complacency in that because of the vaccine and immunity they may forget they can still pass it on to others who've not been vaccinated. That's one reason why I see an (small) outbreak inevitable. Imagine the chaos with contract-tracing had the jetski romeo been positive? He'd gotten around a bit on the night. The incident in Jersey where 20 people at a party were responsible for 500 cases of self-isolation and some positive cases through the tracking and tracing of the contacts of each of those 20 individuals. Were it to happen here, well... Hasn't the timeline from testing to result been extended from <6hours to 48 hours since Dr. Glover withdrew her services? How accurate now, are the PCR tests? If that's the case then our tracking, tracing and testing is going to have a task on it hands. Especially if the vaccination program is under way at the same time. I would like to think Path lab and public health are prepared and an action plan for such a scenario is already been outlined. 

And there's also the possibility we'll get through it without the above scenario. I dearly hope so but the cynic in me sees it as inevitable.