IOM Covid removing restrictions

[Roger Mexico]

19 minutes ago, TheTeapot said:

What abysmal performance?

We had what, 4/5 deaths of people who were out and about, the rest were in one nursing home, which simply demonstrates the absolute ruthlessness of the virus in the right (or wrong depending on how you look at it) circumstances.

Looking around at large parts of the rest of the world and the fact that we have been freely moving around in our own community for a while now to call it an 'abysmal performance' is a complete misreading of the situation.

Similar to Mr Josem really, who was adamant that we were the 9th worst affected country in the world for a while.

Well according to Worldometer, we're still at #15 in terms of deaths (at 282 per million), though I suspect Brazil may overtake us in the next few days.  As I keep on saying, anyone can claim success if you ignore the things that went wrong.  We can point to other countries, such as the UK, omitting deaths in care homes for example or not doing sufficient tests post-mortem, but you can't then start using the same fiddles yourself.  And it's looking as if there were failings in the way the Abbotswood outbreak was handled.

A lot of us still have worries that the failure to test comprehensively and sloppiness around the control of keyworkers may mean that Covid-19 might still be circulating at a low-level on the Island, though hopefully not.   There's an argument that compared to other island jurisdictions, the government haven't really managed things as well as they might, though of course self-congratulation is one of the few areas in which they seem to excel. 

[Roger Mexico]

21 minutes ago, Cambon said:

2 hours ago, Roger Mexico said:

All 22 cases are in "Managed isolation and quarantine" however, so in that case their policy seems to be working as it's picking up the people who would otherwise be spreading Covid-19 in the country itself.

Yes, but no new cases today, two yesterday, two the day before. For the next few days, who knows? The virus was taken in by uk visitors going to see parents on the exemption scheme with closed borders. That is how easily this thing spreads. NZ are on a similar borders stage to us

I'm afraid I didn't make myself clear enough.  These cases are all people arriving into New Zealand and being diagnosed with the virus when still in their post-arrival quarantine or isolation.  So it actually hasn't been detected in the community.  The case with the two sisters from the UK meant that they actually tightened up their procedures.

The only change is that they now seem to be including such quarantined people in their numbers of active cases.  Presumably they won't be allowed out until they are clear of the virus.  There have obviously been similar cases before as they give a total of 54 of which 22 are still active, it's just that they haven't been included in the total figures before now.

[TheTeapot]

17 minutes ago, Roger Mexico said:

Well according to Worldometer, we're still at #15 in terms of deaths (at 282 per million), 

 

Yes, that's a consequence of a small sample size, and a known factor that you need to take into account. San Marino had 40 odd deaths but is top of that scale by an absolute mile. A single death in a small community skews the stats by a large amount, I'd have thought you of all people would understand that.

Also, in your later point about it circulating in a low level, well while I suppose it is possible I'd say it is highly highly unlikely, because this virus doesn't seem to do low level, thats the whole point of everything, it transmits too fast to remain low level. If it was circulating even with majority asymptomatic cases it is inevitable someone would have presented with symptoms by now.

 

[Neil Down]

53 minutes ago, Roger Mexico said:

Well according to Worldometer, we're still at #15 in terms of deaths (at 282 per million), though I suspect Brazil may overtake us in the next few days.  As I keep on saying, anyone can claim success if you ignore the things that went wrong.  We can point to other countries, such as the UK, omitting deaths in care homes for example or not doing sufficient tests post-mortem, but you can't then start using the same fiddles yourself.  And it's looking as if there were failings in the way the Abbotswood outbreak was handled.

A lot of us still have worries that the failure to test comprehensively and sloppiness around the control of keyworkers may mean that Covid-19 might still be circulating at a low-level on the Island, though hopefully not.   There's an argument that compared to other island jurisdictions, the government haven't really managed things as well as they might, though of course self-congratulation is one of the few areas in which they seem to excel. 

those kind of "statistics" are of no value whatsever. We don't have a million people living here so projecting numbers means F-all

[Roger Mexico]

8 minutes ago, TheTeapot said:

Yes, that's a consequence of a small sample size, and a known factor that you need to take into account. San Marino had 40 odd deaths but is top of that scale by an absolute mile. A single death in a small community skews the stats by a large amount, I'd have thought you of all people would understand that.

Also, in your later point about it circulating in a low level, well while I suppose it is possible I'd say it is highly highly unlikely, because this virus doesn't seem to do low level, thats the whole point of everything, it transmits too fast to remain low level. If it was circulating even with majority asymptomatic cases it is inevitable someone would have presented with symptoms by now.

Some of it's good or bad luck,and I'd add that the records are more likely to be accurate in a smaller jurisdiction, which might explain why say San Marino's figures are higher than the surrounding areas of Italy's are.  But I was deliberately comparing us to similar island jurisdictions and, while we seen to have similar figures to the Channel Islands we have done worse than most others.

Hopefully the longer we go without any positive test, the more likely it has been eliminated, but it is possible that it the longish incubation period means that it could get passed around undetected within households or small groups for some time.  Especially if the source is reintroduction rather than from the initial outbreak.  I'm not sure that everyone with symptoms is being tested - there may be a tendency to think that, because it's not on the Island, people must have something else.

[wrighty]

1 hour ago, Roger Mexico said:

 

A lot of us still have worries that the failure to test comprehensively and sloppiness around the control of keyworkers may mean that Covid-19 might still be circulating at a low-level on the Island, though hopefully not.   There's an argument that compared to other island jurisdictions, the government haven't really managed things as well as they might, though of course self-congratulation is one of the few areas in which they seem to excel. 

I very much doubt that covid is circulating in the community here.  We have had a fair bit of freedom of movement and return to work here now for several weeks, and have seen no uptick in cases of respiratory illness, or calls to 111 etc. If we had circulating cases we'd expect to be admitting about 1 in 20 of them to hospital and that hasn't happened.

I do however share your concerns regarding the control of keyworkers, and we've all seen a couple of cases in the news recently regarding this.  And with prevalence apparently on the rise in the UK as a whole (ONS figures suggests it's gone from 1:1700 to 1:1100 over the past couple of weeks) this is something we need to be getting right.

Overall I believe government have done a pretty good job here.  Comparisons with other jurisdictions are very difficult to make though.

  

[Uhtred]

1 hour ago, wrighty said:

I very much doubt that covid is circulating in the community here.  We have had a fair bit of freedom of movement and return to work here now for several weeks, and have seen no uptick in cases of respiratory illness, or calls to 111 etc. If we had circulating cases we'd expect to be admitting about 1 in 20 of them to hospital and that hasn't happened.

I do however share your concerns regarding the control of keyworkers, and we've all seen a couple of cases in the news recently regarding this.  And with prevalence apparently on the rise in the UK as a whole (ONS figures suggests it's gone from 1:1700 to 1:1100 over the past couple of weeks) this is something we need to be getting right.

Overall I believe government have done a pretty good job here.  Comparisons with other jurisdictions are very difficult to make though.

  

Wrighty - what is your current thinking on the sequence, timing, management and monitoring of border opening/relaxation of controls? 

[Scotty]

5 hours ago, Uhtred said:

What an asinine comment.

It was meant in the context of the public would tend to listen more and take notice off a more senior medic such as a consultant, virul specialist or whatever.

People are so quick to dive in on something which could have been put better by others on here.

[Dirty Buggane]

Talking about key workers I see a maroon tanker that is an English registered company but on Manx plates about once to twice a week around the place. I think it is on the island to deal with some process of the incinerator that leaves a liquid waste that can not be dealt with on island. My question is, is the tanker loaded on board the Ben my Cree in Heysham by an English driver and then driven to site by a Manx driver this side. Question is because it was coming out of B&Q last week and was parked on the pavement opposite cycle 360 at the business park, is this because no shops are open in England and it is handy for the English driver to pick up stuff on island.

Just interested and would love to be proved wrong that it is not another cock up under the key worker guise

[The Dog's Dangly Bits]

4 hours ago, Flyingfemme said:

"Uk is beginning to spike again."

800 cases? Ooooh, I'm terrified.

Anyone would think that the IOM had done a sterling job with this pandemic...........scale up the local deaths to a population the same size as the rest of the UK and  population density the same and you are right there. But without any of the explaining circumstances in the UK - the big, crowded cities with deprived poulations, the passing through travellers, the people driving the imported goods into the country..............and your borders were closed tight three months ago. So what's the reasoning for this abysmal performance?

Lol.

[The Dog's Dangly Bits]

4 hours ago, Roger Mexico said:

Well according to Worldometer, we're still at #15 in terms of deaths (at 282 per million), though I suspect Brazil may overtake us in the next few days.  As I keep on saying, anyone can claim success if you ignore the things that went wrong.  We can point to other countries, such as the UK, omitting deaths in care homes for example or not doing sufficient tests post-mortem, but you can't then start using the same fiddles yourself.  And it's looking as if there were failings in the way the Abbotswood outbreak was handled.

A lot of us still have worries that the failure to test comprehensively and sloppiness around the control of keyworkers may mean that Covid-19 might still be circulating at a low-level on the Island, though hopefully not.   There's an argument that compared to other island jurisdictions, the government haven't really managed things as well as they might, though of course self-congratulation is one of the few areas in which they seem to excel. 

That's not really true is it Roger?

On the whole the government has done fine.  Clearly nothing would be good enough for you of course but in the real world they've done OK.  Could have handle unwinding lock down a bit quicker but OK overall.

[Frances]

all shops are open in England (tho some chains have closed down)

[wrighty]

2 hours ago, Uhtred said:

Wrighty - what is your current thinking on the sequence, timing, management and monitoring of border opening/relaxation of controls? 

Sequence: Totally Closed...Managed repatriation...free travel for locals with arrivals quarantined...Free travel for all with testing/risk mitigation...free travel for all no restrictions

Timing: This really has to depend on the prevalence in the UK.  I've tried to model this based on other jurisdictions but my predictions fell down at the first hurdle since the UK are not panning out the same as others have done - instead of infection prevalence halving every 23 days they've increased! If you know the UK prevalence, you can calculate an expected number of covid positive arrivals according to how many arrivals you expect, and can make sure that that number can be detected and managed by the immigration controls.

Management: Unless the prevalence is so low in the UK to make risk of importation of covid negligible, then I think some form of screening or testing will need to be done on arrival if we are going to be able to relax quarantine for arrivals.

Monitoring: Same as now, looking at hospital arrivals, 111 calls

The key to all of this is understanding and management of risk.  Scientists may be able to calculate and articulate that risk, it's up to politicians what level of risk is acceptable, while balancing the societal and economic demands to relax restrictions.

[Uhtred]

20 minutes ago, wrighty said:

Sequence: Totally Closed...Managed repatriation...free travel for locals with arrivals quarantined...Free travel for all with testing/risk mitigation...free travel for all no restrictions

Timing: This really has to depend on the prevalence in the UK.  I've tried to model this based on other jurisdictions but my predictions fell down at the first hurdle since the UK are not panning out the same as others have done - instead of infection prevalence halving every 23 days they've increased! If you know the UK prevalence, you can calculate an expected number of covid positive arrivals according to how many arrivals you expect, and can make sure that that number can be detected and managed by the immigration controls.

Management: Unless the prevalence is so low in the UK to make risk of importation of covid negligible, then I think some form of screening or testing will need to be done on arrival if we are going to be able to relax quarantine for arrivals.

Monitoring: Same as now, looking at hospital arrivals, 111 calls

The key to all of this is understanding and management of risk.  Scientists may be able to calculate and articulate that risk, it's up to politicians what level of risk is acceptable, while balancing the societal and economic demands to relax restrictions.

Thank you for that - very interesting and clear.

[TheTeapot]

I have a question for @wrighty or indeed anyone who might know. You'll possibly have seen the reports over the last few days, notabl reported on by the FT about the 'pillar 1' and 'pillar 2' testing information, and how the pillar 2 information is not accurately being shared. That;s one of the things that has caused such consternation in Leicester. Do the people here in charge of our response have access to it? And if not, how can we possibly make an accurate response to the threat that the UK so obviously represents? Thanks.