the stinking enigma Posted December 8, 2020 Share Posted December 8, 2020 Ive already paid top dollar to taxagenomics for one of these tests. Turns out my old fella was a Schnauzer. Still, it's nice to know. 3 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Banker Posted December 8, 2020 Share Posted December 8, 2020 4 hours ago, wrighty said: I think you're right. I said long ago (maybe on here, but certainly in real life) that we'd have a vaccine by the end of the year, that it may not be that effective, but it would allow society to just get on with it accepting that covid is still around but doesn't do much harm to the majority of people who get it. Depends if Howie & Ashie want to allow the IOM to move forward or keep the borders closed. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Apple Posted December 8, 2020 Share Posted December 8, 2020 40 minutes ago, the stinking enigma said: Ive already paid top dollar to taxagenomics for one of these tests. Turns out my old fella was a Schnauzer. Still, it's nice to know. Your old fella.....Oh, you meant your Dad. Sorry. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TerryFuchwit Posted December 8, 2020 Share Posted December 8, 2020 5 hours ago, Nom de plume said: UK daily infection rate seems to be around 14,000. Based on a population of 65 million, that equates to a 0.02% chance of catching the virus. What then the risk of developing life threatening symptoms? I'm hoping a combination of the falling daily UK infection rate coupled with the vaccine rollout we've half a chance of being able to move about by Easter. The vaccine is the go ahead to get back to normal. Expect these punitive restrictions to drop away by March. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Mexico Posted December 8, 2020 Share Posted December 8, 2020 6 hours ago, Nom de plume said: UK daily infection rate seems to be around 14,000. Based on a population of 65 million, that equates to a 0.02% chance of catching the virus. Not quite. The latest ONS estimates are: During the most recent week (22 to 28 November 2020), we estimate there were 4.71 new COVID-19 infections for every 10,000 people per day (95% credible interval: 4.09 to 5.40) in the community population in England, equating to around 25,700 new cases per day (95% credible interval: 22,300 to 29,400); the incidence rate has decreased in recent weeks. Which is more than 14,000. I think you confused it with the number of daily new cases, though even that is starting to rise again after the end of November. And that's just the chance of catching Covid on a particular day. The same report says: during the most recent week (22 to 28 November 2020), we estimate 521,300 people (95% credible interval: 490,600 to 552,600) within the community population in England had the coronavirus (COVID-19), equating to around 1 in 105 people (95% credible interval: 1 in 110 to 1 in 100). 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kopek Posted December 8, 2020 Share Posted December 8, 2020 Schnauzer??? Hmmmmmm German. THERE'S A BOAT IN THE MORNING!!!!!!!! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nom de plume Posted December 9, 2020 Share Posted December 9, 2020 (edited) 20 hours ago, Roger Mexico said: Not quite. The latest ONS estimates are: During the most recent week (22 to 28 November 2020), we estimate there were 4.71 new COVID-19 infections for every 10,000 people per day (95% credible interval: 4.09 to 5.40) in the community population in England, equating to around 25,700 new cases per day (95% credible interval: 22,300 to 29,400); the incidence rate has decreased in recent weeks. Which is more than 14,000. I think you confused it with the number of daily new cases, though even that is starting to rise again after the end of November. And that's just the chance of catching Covid on a particular day. The same report says: during the most recent week (22 to 28 November 2020), we estimate 521,300 people (95% credible interval: 490,600 to 552,600) within the community population in England had the coronavirus (COVID-19), equating to around 1 in 105 people (95% credible interval: 1 in 110 to 1 in 100). Just checked the official data Roger. Rolling 7 day average (Dec 1 - Dec 7) was 15,742 new infections per day so slightly more than the 14,000 I stated. It seems the majority of new infections are now in the Greater London area. Their figures are quite alarming in some boroughs and must surely see them move into Tier 3 when reviewed next week. What is significant is the fairly rapid decline of the virus in the North West (Liverpool now at 88 per 100,000 as opposed to 750 per 100,000 only a few weeks ago) where Howard Quayle cited the rationale for our particularly rigid quarantining stance. Let us hear him quote these numbers at the next briefing and react in the manner accordingly. Edited December 9, 2020 by Nom de plume 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Barlow Posted December 9, 2020 Share Posted December 9, 2020 Listening to Minister David Ashford this morning, he likes to put things "for the record", but also it seems likes to shred letters a few days after receiving them. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Mexico Posted December 9, 2020 Share Posted December 9, 2020 29 minutes ago, Nom de plume said: Just checked the official data Roger. Rolling 7 day average (Dec 1 - Dec 7) was 15,742 new infections per day so slightly more than the 14,000 I stated. I think you're making the same error as above - those are the numbers for positive tests, the ONS figures are their estimates of the prevalence of the disease in all the population (England and Wales) based on random sampling. Obviously this will be higher as not everyone will get tested and the number of tests that get done can vary with availability. The ONS figure gives a better overall figure, but doesn't provide the same detail down to local authority areas as the tests, so both are useful. And of course tests aren't infections because of the delay in symptoms and when people actually register as positive after actual infect. So any tests are showing the infections that were happening a week or so ago. I agree that London looks very worrying (especially East London) and you can't help feeling that allocation of tiers was based as much on what would inconvenience people as what would stop the spread. There's a real danger that Christmas will see the hospitals jammed. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rachomics Posted December 9, 2020 Share Posted December 9, 2020 On 12/8/2020 at 12:49 AM, AcousticallyChallenged said: I don't think it's on Dr Glover that the situation is at this point. Yes, she stuck her head above the parapet after exhausting all avenues, and that is a Bad Thing in the land of I'm Alright Jack. But since that, there has been a clear disdain and begrudging cooperation at best from DHSC, with silly hurdles to jump through. Though the Dr kept going through this, feeling that she had a social responsibility and wanting to help. However, understandably, anyone can only take so much fuss before reaching breaking point. Dr Glover is not responsible for the decisions that led to the current situation, and I highly imagine that a certain duo will try and argue it totally differently. This made my eyes well up. I'm not normally someone who gets affected when it comes to business but you were absolutely on point with this. I'm extremely resilient and have thick skin but this whole situation has taken its toll and the DHSC are desperately trying to rewrite history. 12 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rachomics Posted December 9, 2020 Share Posted December 9, 2020 (edited) On 12/7/2020 at 11:46 PM, hampsterkahn said: “Spat”... The word trivialises a very serious situation. Grow up.Start working together. Please. Indeed. Tried and tested for over a month. The DHSC and DA decided that "working together" wasn't needed. Remember, the path lab have 56 staff who (apparently) can do what they needed me to do. For seven months. On 12/8/2020 at 2:06 PM, Nom de plume said: Hence my question regarding the Governments testing capabilities without the assistance of Dr. Glover. I’m fully versed in the quarantine requirements having recently gone through the joys of 14 day self isolation for a two day essential business trip! It will come to the fore eventually. Or it won't and the politicians will feel like they spun it successfully. I know what I did and the DHSC can try to rewrite history all they like. If it came to it I can prove everything I did this year. On 12/8/2020 at 4:26 PM, Mr Helmut Fromage said: Once Dr G's tenure is over and no local testing is available will the stats be changed to: Waiting for tests: 84,736 Waiting for results: 0 You have no idea how much laughed at this. Proper belly laughs. I still don't know why the DHSC don't report the number of "tests per day" like other governments around the world. To calculate this you have to download the .csv "open data" spreadsheet and calculate it yourself. They should be open about this; everyone on the Island should know how many tests are being done each day. The path lab aren't doing COVID19 testing 24 hours per day, so it's easy to calculate once per day how many tests have been done. Edited December 9, 2020 by rachomics typo 3 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zarley Posted December 9, 2020 Share Posted December 9, 2020 11 minutes ago, rachomics said: This made my eyes well up. I'm not normally someone who gets affected when it comes to business but you were absolutely on point with this. I'm extremely resilient and have thick skin but this whole situation has taken its toll and the DHSC are desperately trying to rewrite history. Gaslighting. It's called gaslighting. I had a lot of respect for Ashford during this past spring and summer, but not now, not after the way he's handled this situation. It's appalling. It's a very small, selfish person who would wilfully jeopardise the health and safety of an entire community, rather than admit they made an error in judgement and apologise. Thank you, Rachel, for all you (and your team/company/partner) have done for the island. The vast majority of us appreciate what you've achieved, even if certain narcissists in government do not. 16 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Apple Posted December 9, 2020 Share Posted December 9, 2020 (edited) I am truly sorry you have experienced what several others have also had to go through. Those of us who have followed and been involved with over the years the impact of the DHSC attitude to their staff and partners are I am afraid not surprised. I have seen good people broken and lost by the lack of respect and poor sense of value that has been shown to them. The single minded drive for "cultural change" and to reassert the strong handed management and leadership has failed in my view. As in this case, the costs have been high in both personal terms to individuals and the erosion of confidence in a supposedly public service based on integrity, equality and fairness. No-one in the management of DHSC should feel proud of themselves in my opinion. Edited December 9, 2020 by Apple 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Banker Posted December 9, 2020 Share Posted December 9, 2020 Meanwhile Ashie is spending an extra £3.5m pa on salaries alone for the Manx care set up as revealed in a HOK question yesterday but can’t afford to pay proper rates to Rachel for her services, unbelievable!!! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TerryFuchwit Posted December 9, 2020 Share Posted December 9, 2020 51 minutes ago, Banker said: Meanwhile Ashie is spending an extra £3.5m pa on salaries alone for the Manx care set up as revealed in a HOK question yesterday but can’t afford to pay proper rates to Rachel for her services, unbelievable!!! It isn't really. Manx Care has nothing to do with paying or not paying for her services. It isn't an either / or situation. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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