Vaccine- who will have it?

[piebaps]

Keep em shut I say!!

[Happier diner]

11 minutes ago, John Wright said:

Yes we’ve had a borders pathway, since June 2020 and last updated 21 January. I can’t be arsed linking to it. Oh, go on.  Although I notice the figures aren’t there. It was 1:5000 or 20:100,000.
 

https://covid19.gov.im/general-information/travel-advice/borders-framework/

They’ve also indicated that it’ll be reviewed in May.

Our vaccination rate/level isn’t all that relevant. It’s the risk posed by where we travel from or through. The UK vaccination level should reduce UK prevalence as well as seasonality.

That's right. Theres a pathway but no numbers. 

The number vaccinated here is important in my view because the whole concept is to prevent people coming here and infecting the vulnerable and the o50s like me becoming ill or worse dying.  If us old has beens are protected then that surely is no longer required. 

[Happier diner]

4 minutes ago, piebaps said:

Keep em shut I say!!

They wont need encouragement 

[Happier diner]

8 minutes ago, Banker said:

He said the revised borders policy will be published by end February after all MHKS have had input so should be soon. Whether it’ll just be published on a press conference next week wasn’t clear

Let's hope it clear and objective,  and not open to interpretation as gov sees fit.

[Cambon]

19 minutes ago, Andy Onchan said:

So are you retired?

Group 8 of phase 1 

[Nom de plume]

We can have another (yawn) quick look at Jersey for some reality.

So, prior to the vaccination rollout:

3.213 positive cases (that they knew about)

68 deaths

2% of those who developed symptoms requiring hospitalisation died.

90% of those who died were over 70 years old.

All prior to the vax rollout.

It’s really time to stop fucking about making excuses. Once the 50’s are done (I’d actually argue strongly the case for +70’s) it’s time to open up.

Ridiculous bitter people about trying to deprive others from freely moving back & forth from our Island.

Edited February 24, 2021 by Nom de plume

[wrighty]

14 minutes ago, Nom de plume said:

We can have another (yawn) quick look at Jersey for some reality.

So, prior to the vaccination rollout:

3.213 positive cases (that they knew about)

68 deaths

2% of those who developed symptoms requiring hospitalisation died.

90% of those who died were over 70 years old.

All prior to the vax rollout.

It’s really time to stop fucking about making excuses. Once the 50’s are done (I’d actually argue strongly the case for +70’s) it’s time to open up.

Ridiculous bitter people about trying to deprive others from freely moving back & forth from our Island.

Something that may support your argument - have a look at the qcovid risk score. 
 

For my age alone, my risk of dying from covid is about 1 in 300, pretty low for an individual but 1 in 300 of thousands is a lot.  But given I’m fit and well, no diabetes, no heart disease, not obese etc (these categories and more are in the score) my individualised score came to about 1 in 17000 risk of dying (and about 1 in 1700 of needing hospital admission)

So, if the vulnerable being vaccinated includes all diabetics, those with heart disease, the obese etc the residual risk to the health service should be very low. Combine this with the vaccine’s apparent effectiveness at preventing transmission and summer is looking more optimistic.

[Banker]

7 minutes ago, wrighty said:

Something that may support your argument - have a look at the qcovid risk score. 
 

For my age alone, my risk of dying from covid is about 1 in 300, pretty low for an individual but 1 in 300 of thousands is a lot.  But given I’m fit and well, no diabetes, no heart disease, not obese etc (these categories and more are in the score) my individualised score came to about 1 in 17000 risk of dying (and about 1 in 1700 of needing hospital admission)

So, if the vulnerable being vaccinated includes all diabetics, those with heart disease, the obese etc the residual risk to the health service should be very low. Combine this with the vaccine’s apparent effectiveness at preventing transmission and summer is looking more optimistic.

Thanks, hopefully Ashie is asking for medical input into the borders policy and not just MHKS!!

[Apple]

4 minutes ago, wrighty said:

So, if the vulnerable being vaccinated includes all diabetics, those with heart disease, the obese etc the residual risk to the health service should be very low. Combine this with the vaccine’s apparent effectiveness at preventing transmission and summer is looking more optimistic.

I think the main risks to the health services  from here on in will be around long covid (or whatever it leaves behind) and certainly the issues for mental health services, especially for younger people / adults.

Opening up fully by early June would potentially have a positive impact on both of those circumstances, if we can carry on being "lucky".😁

[Happier diner]

2 minutes ago, Nom de plume said:

We can have another (yawn) quick look at Jersey for some reality.

So, prior to the vaccination rollout:

3.213 positive cases (that they knew about)

68 deaths

2% of those who developed symptoms requiring hospitalisation died.

90% of those who died were over 70 years old.

All prior to the vax rollout.

It’s really time to stop fucking about making excuses. Once the 50’s are done (I’d actually argue strongly the case for +70’s) it’s time to open up.

Ridiculous bitter people about trying to deprive others from freely moving back & forth from our Island.

Yes. there surely can be no excuse. Lets keep the pressure on. I am desperate to get away for a few days

[Newbie]

22 minutes ago, wrighty said:

But given I’m fit and well, no diabetes, no heart disease, not obese etc (these categories and more are in the score) my individualised score came to about 1 in 17000 risk of dying (and about 1 in 1700 of needing hospital admission)

Thanks for the info. Looking at the calculator, it seems to be calculating the risk of someone catching and then dying (or being hospitalised) from COVID over a 90 day period, rather than your risk of dying if you were to catch COVID. So your risk would be 1 in 17,000 per 90 days?? 

In which case, I guess that must depend upon circulating levels of disease, since that would affect your risk of catching it in the first place. 

[wrighty]

20 minutes ago, Newbie said:

Thanks for the info. Looking at the calculator, it seems to be calculating the risk of someone catching and then dying (or being hospitalised) from COVID over a 90 day period, rather than your risk of dying if you were to catch COVID. So your risk would be 1 in 17,000 per 90 days?? 

In which case, I guess that must depend upon circulating levels of disease, since that would affect your risk of catching it in the first place. 

Good point.  It’s a 90 day period over the recent peak, so effectively for someone like me, living in corona city (the uk) for the last 3 months the risk of dying would be 1 in 17000.  Given rates are falling now it’ll be even less risk for the next 3 months. (And even less given vaccination)

 

[Nom de plume]

20 minutes ago, wrighty said:

Good point.  It’s a 90 day period over the recent peak, so effectively for someone like me, living in corona city (the uk) for the last 3 months the risk of dying would be 1 in 17000.  Given rates are falling now it’ll be even less risk for the next 3 months. (And even less given vaccination)

 

You (we) can only hope that the Manx Government are realising this & prepared to act accordingly.

It's beyond a joke how molly coddled some have become. 2020 was the year that millennials were finally overshadowed by the snowflake generation.

Edited February 24, 2021 by Nom de plume

[Newbie]

26 minutes ago, wrighty said:

Good point.  It’s a 90 day period over the recent peak, so effectively for someone like me, living in corona city (the uk) for the last 3 months the risk of dying would be 1 in 17000.  Given rates are falling now it’ll be even less risk for the next 3 months. (And even less given vaccination)

 

That’s how I read it. Your risk of catching it is dropping like a stone but if you were to catch it your risk of dying, whilst not 1 in 300, would probably be more like 1 in 600 (sorry to disappoint!!)

[Apple]

3 minutes ago, Nom de plume said:

You (we) can only hope that the Manx Government are realising this & prepared to act accordingly.

It's beyond a joke how molly coddled some have become. 2020 was the year that millennials were finally overshadowed by the snowflake generation.

Not wishing to fully challenge but it is really up to the Government and their advisers. If enough and / or the right medical advisers agree then they should be saying that clearly to them. Also, 2020 was the year too many people died.