Vaccine- who will have it?

[John Wright]

7 minutes ago, Banker said:

No delay, registered online as soon as opened and got call back 60 minutes later. You may have had your second dose but many haven’t with delay in starting not helping position.

As I say Ashford needs to provide update 

Not had my second dose. They screwed up my invite. GP forgot to forward in correct cohort.  

The start “delay” has made no difference at all. Time to let go. 

You may have received your invite at the end of your cohort, the  allocation/randomisation between the various lists was opaque.

 

[Happier diner]

Just now, John Wright said:

They’ve got to do 45,000 second doses over the next 11 weeks. They’ve done most 70+ and most clinically extremely vulnerable.

There were issues with the notification and invitation system initially with GP’s missing people off the notification list. That happened to me. I had to chase and as a result of the delay I missed out on second dose within 3-4 weeks. Assuming each decade cohort is same number approx.  it’s 2 weeks each for 60+, 50+, 40+, 30+ and 20+.

Clearly there will be outliers. They’re doing the 65+ and any late first takers in 70+ and clinically extremely vulnerable now.

With due respect John, I think you have got this wrong. By nature of the fact that many oldies have health conditions, there are a lot of o50's due to get second  jabs soon. However those who don't, its end of June. Not outliers, it's the majority. Believe me, I have many friends and colleagues in the same boat.

I noted HQ got his earlier than me. He must have a health condition 

[John Wright]

12 minutes ago, Out of the blue said:

End of June is the current trajectory for the 50 plus

They’ve been running ahead of the trajectory for firsts and haven’t updated the trajectory for seconds to take that into account

[Happier diner]

1 minute ago, John Wright said:

 

The start “delay” has made no difference at all. Time to let go. 

 

 

You are correct on this one. The programme was limited by supply of vaccine.

[Happier diner]

1 minute ago, John Wright said:

They’ve been running ahead of the trajectory for firsts and haven’t updated the trajectory for seconds to take that into account

No. Once you have had your first. Its 12 weeks to second. No change in trajectory is possible.

[John Wright]

2 minutes ago, Happier diner said:

No. Once you have had your first. Its 12 weeks to second. No change in trajectory is possible.

No. They managed to deliver firsts to all 20+ who wanted ahead of trajectory. By 3 weeks. That means all the aimed for trajectory dates for 2nd are accelerated. There’s still a 12 week gap.

Confusing dose interval with projection/trajectory. Over achieve with speed of delivery of firsts you automatically accelerate 2nds.

[Happier diner]

1 minute ago, John Wright said:

No. They managed to deliver firsts to all 20+ who wanted ahead of trajectory. By 3 weeks. That means all the aimed for trajectory dates for 2nd are accelerated. There’s still a 12 week gap.

You should be a politician 

O50's cohort not substantially complete until end of June

[Banker]

Here’s a report on how UK May do it, looks like aiming for all over 50s vaccinated fully by 21/06 ie end of restrictions date

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9579137/amp/Coronavirus-UK-bring-forward-second-vaccine-doses-eight-weeks.html

[Happier diner]

The UK has now changed to 8weeks gap for o50's and all other vulnerable groups. Surely we will follow suit. It's got to make sense. 

[Out of the blue]

9 minutes ago, John Wright said:

No. They managed to deliver firsts to all 20+ who wanted ahead of trajectory. By 3 weeks. That means all the aimed for trajectory dates for 2nd are accelerated. There’s still a 12 week gap.

Confusing dose interval with projection/trajectory. Over achieve with speed of delivery of firsts you automatically accelerate 2nds.

I am 50, replied to the letter immediately, got an appointment very quickly along with the 2nd for the end of June. All of my peers in the same age cohort are in exactly the same position. Those I know in their mid to late 40's are due their second dose in early July. Neither I or the people I refer to have any underlying health conditions. 

[Out of the blue]

2 minutes ago, Happier diner said:

The UK has now changed to 8weeks gap for o50's and all other vulnerable groups. Surely we will follow suit. It's got to make sense. 

Given that this cohort will be pretty much done in six weeks, I am not sure the benefit is worth the potential confusion/hassle, although I will not complain if they do.

[TheTeapot]

1 hour ago, Happier diner said:

The UK has now changed to 8weeks gap for o50's and all other vulnerable groups. Surely we will follow suit. It's got to make sense. 

When they first started talking about changing the second doses I was opposed. I said at the time I'd be happy if I was wrong, and I am.

Thing is, with the evidence clearly showing they were right to do what they did, why would they now go try changing it again?

[Cambon]

If they had stuck to the manufacturers schedule instead of the 12 week cock up, all vulnerable and over 60s would be double jabbed by now and the 55+ would be in for second jab next week, 45+ for first. 

[Happier diner]

1 hour ago, TheTeapot said:

When they first started talking about changing the second doses I was opposed. I said at the time I'd be happy if I was wrong, and I am.

Thing is, with the evidence clearly showing they were right to do what they did, why would they now go try changing it again?

But uk follows JVCI advice. There is no evidence that 12 weeks is better than 8 or 10. It may be but the fact is no one knows. 

If you dont change and be flexible to changing situations that's just being silly.

32 minutes ago, Cambon said:

If they had stuck to the manufacturers schedule instead of the 12 week cock up, all vulnerable and over 60s would be double jabbed by now and the 55+ would be in for second jab next week, 45+ for first. 

But many would have had no jab at all. I think that's a different arguement anyway. There was no manufacturers schedule. The developer had tested it at 6 weeks and knew it worked. They didn't know if it would be better or worse at 12 weeks as they never tested this. There was no time.

[Happier diner]

2 hours ago, Out of the blue said:

Given that this cohort will be pretty much done in six weeks, I am not sure the benefit is worth the potential confusion/hassle, although I will not complain if they do.

There would be no need for confusion. Just send out the letters again and allow those that wish to to re register. All the shots are saved and ready anyway. It would mean that we would have to increase the rate per day or work more days but it's not an insurmountable challenge.

If we dont, and we plan to open up end June we will still have a good number of those classed as vulnerable with only 70% protection instead of 97% protected. That probably adds up to a few people that could die. That should be avoided. It could be me and/or thee.