Vaccine- who will have it?

[Roger Mexico]

18 minutes ago, Happier diner said:

There would be no need for confusion. Just send out the letters again and allow those that wish to to re register. All the shots are saved and ready anyway.

No they're not.  Vaccine stock in hand is 9778 as at 12 May.   There are 19,294 people 60 and over or clinically vulnerable booked for their second jab.   That's almost twice as many.

That's before you consider those in their 50s (7429) and those in all those groups who haven't even had their first jab yet - around a quarter.  There's clearly also a problem with people being purged from the lists to make to figures look better.  They're claiming that 100% of those aged 70-74 or 'extremely clinically vulnerable' have been vaccinated for instance.

[Roger Mexico]

4 hours ago, John Wright said:

No. They managed to deliver firsts to all 20+ who wanted ahead of trajectory. By 3 weeks. That means all the aimed for trajectory dates for 2nd are accelerated. There’s still a 12 week gap.

Only about half of those in the 20-49 groups have had their first jab yet, so I suspect this isn't all those who wanted, vaccine resistance isn't anything like that high.  It's about half through all that age-range too, so it's not youth feeling invulnerable either, actually it's a little bit higher (55%) in the 20-year olds.

[Happier diner]

36 minutes ago, Roger Mexico said:

No they're not.  Vaccine stock in hand is 9778 as at 12 May.   There are 19,294 people 60 and over or clinically vulnerable booked for their second jab.   That's almost twice as many.

That's before you consider those in their 50s (7429) and those in all those groups who haven't even had their first jab yet - around a quarter.  There's clearly also a problem with people being purged from the lists to make to figures look better.  They're claiming that 100% of those aged 70-74 or 'extremely clinically vulnerable' have been vaccinated for instance.

Agreed.

Your assuming we dont get how many a week on top of that though and no reason to suggest we wont. 

Do you need to add say 4 weeks of new stock into that?

[Roger Mexico]

2 minutes ago, Happier diner said:

Your assuming we dont get how many a week on top of that though and no reason to suggest we wont. 

Do you need to add say 4 weeks of new stock into that?

Well I'd hope that supplies would continue at the appropriate rate, but as I said earlier, I'm surprised they aren't higher at the moment due to scaling back in the last few weeks.  But because there are so many already booked in for their second jab from Monday, they only have two weeks stock in hand and need to be doing around 4,700 vaccinations a week for the next six weeks to cope with what is already booked and that rate doesn't really slacken till mid-July.  So any disruption of supply will mean they can't even fulfil what is scheduled, never mind bringing some people forward.

To be honest I can't see how the UK can promise this either, unless they know they have a boost of supply happening from now on.  In which case we should get some as well.  But it wouldn't be the first time the UK government has promised something they can't deliver and in reality they may be relying on most people not asking for a new appointment rather than the vaccinators actively re-scheduling them.

[Happier diner]

13 minutes ago, Roger Mexico said:

Well I'd hope that supplies would continue at the appropriate rate, but as I said earlier, I'm surprised they aren't higher at the moment due to scaling back in the last few weeks.  But because there are so many already booked in for their second jab from Monday, they only have two weeks stock in hand and need to be doing around 4,700 vaccinations a week for the next six weeks to cope with what is already booked and that rate doesn't really slacken till mid-July.  So any disruption of supply will mean they can't even fulfil what is scheduled, never mind bringing some people forward.

To be honest I can't see how the UK can promise this either, unless they know they have a boost of supply happening from now on.  In which case we should get some as well.  But it wouldn't be the first time the UK government has promised something they can't deliver and in reality they may be relying on most people not asking for a new appointment rather than the vaccinators actively re-scheduling them.

That's a good explanation.  Can you estimate from the data what number of vulnerable (o50 and health) will not have had both jabs + 2 weeks at 30 June. I'm thinking it will be mid July before this is substantially complete. 

[John Wright]

1 hour ago, Roger Mexico said:

Only about half of those in the 20-49 groups have had their first jab yet, so I suspect this isn't all those who wanted, vaccine resistance isn't anything like that high.  It's about half through all that age-range too, so it's not youth feeling invulnerable either, actually it's a little bit higher (55%) in the 20-year olds.

I have severe doubts about the accuracy of the first dose figures on the vaccination dashboard.

Back of fag packet tells us 85,000 population. Approximately 1000 of each year of age. We’ve done 55,000 out of 65,000 20+ first doses. That’s 82%.

I know there are some age bulges. But it can’t be as low as 50% of the 20-49 age bracket. If it was it means that there’s 40,000 60+ and extremely vulnerables done. And there aren’t that many.

[AlanShimmin]

Just now, John Wright said:

I have severe doubts about the accuracy of the first dose figures on the vaccination dashboard.

Back of fag packet tells us 85,000 population. Approximately 1000 of each year of age. We’ve done 55,000 out of 65,000 20+ first doses. That’s 82%.

I know there are some age bulges. But it can’t be as low as 50% of the 20-49 age bracket. If it was it means that there’s 40,000 60+ and extremely vulnerables done. And there aren’t that many.

We are top heavy on the old depends ratio so I'm guessing older population outstrips younger economically active people.

[John Wright]

15 minutes ago, AlanShimmin said:

We are top heavy on the old depends ratio so I'm guessing older population outstrips younger economically active people.

There’s a bulge between 40-60. 

[Banker]

Doesn’t look like we’ve done any vaccinations last few days for some reason. UK now vaccinated fully 37.8% of population 

Daily UK stats released

Another 7 COVID-19 related deaths have been registered in the UK in the latest 24-hour reporting period, as well as a further 2,207 infections.

An additional 204,912 people were given the first doses of a vaccine on Friday, with 379,111 getting their second.

The total number of people who have had both doses stands at 19,698,121 - 37.4% of the country.

[Roger Mexico]

11 minutes ago, John Wright said:

I know there are some age bulges. But it can’t be as low as 50% of the 20-49 age bracket. If it was it means that there’s 40,000 60+ and extremely vulnerables done. And there aren’t that many.

According to the dashboard:

There are 40,320 in the population of 60+ or EV or underlying health conditions (UHC).  Of whom 35,363 have had the first jab (and 15,558 both).  

There are 42,192 20-59 of whom 24,325 have have had the first jab, about 58%.  You will notice that this means there is hardly anyone on the Island under 20, that's because there are 9409 in their numbers as UHCs, most of whom are under 60 (certainly 96% of the jabs have gone to under-65s).  These have a higher rate of take-up (75% ish), so that will reduce that 58% further.  

[AlanShimmin]

As Banker has said, it appears no vaccinations have taken place for the last 4 days. 

[Cambon]

5 hours ago, John Wright said:

I have severe doubts about the accuracy of the first dose figures on the vaccination dashboard.

Back of fag packet tells us 85,000 population. Approximately 1000 of each year of age. We’ve done 55,000 out of 65,000 20+ first doses. That’s 82%.

I know there are some age bulges. But it can’t be as low as 50% of the 20-49 age bracket. If it was it means that there’s 40,000 60+ and extremely vulnerables done. And there aren’t that many.

John, you are correct to doubt these figures. However, remember an huge percentage of the Islands population has been vaccinated early on. For example, health care, doctors, nurses, physiotherapists, even undertakers. 

 

[Cambon]

On 5/14/2021 at 1:54 PM, Cambon said:

So, Ashy said a few weeks ago that from Monday this week (10/5) second jabs were going to be ramped up. Looking at the dashboard, they did around 750 on Monday (nearly all first jabs), 550 on Tuesday (nearly all first jabs) none on Wednesday, none on Thursday and none today.

Does anyone know why they have stopped the vaccination program? 

So, I posted this yestaerday, and you are finally realising it today. Well done all!!  

Amazing ! And Banker insults me for being  correct! 

[Cambon]

5 hours ago, Banker said:

Doesn’t look like we’ve done any vaccinations last few days for some reason. UK now vaccinated fully 37.8% of population 

Daily UK stats released

Another 7 COVID-19 related deaths have been registered in the UK in the latest 24-hour reporting period, as well as a further 2,207 infections.

An additional 204,912 people were given the first doses of a vaccine on Friday, with 379,111 getting their second.

The total number of people who have had both doses stands at 19,698,121 - 37.4% of the country.

At some point you are going to have to agree that I was always correct about the 12 weeks. Would you like to do it now, or wait until it is even more embarrassing? Oh,  and believe me, it will only get worse. 

[Banker]

UK say no delay in first doses wiry accelerated second doses so assume IOM should be able to do something similar , hopefully update tomorrow 

Government sources have suggested that this means that the acceleration of second doses will not slow down the roll out of first doses.