Vaccine- who will have it?

[Itsmeee]

7 hours ago, Roger Mexico said:

The reason they could shorten it to 10 weeks is that they initially had lengthened the gap to this before going to 12 weeks on the basis that we should blindly follow England whatever.  So the people being vaccinated at the moment and for the rest of May are actually having their second dose 10 weeks after the first.  Because they then opened the gap to 12 weeks there are only 10 people booked in for their second (or any) jab in the first two weeks of June.

So they could theoretically close that gap by moving everyone back two weeks, providing they are certain of supply.  But that would be a massive load of admin (there are over 32,000 jabs booked in the period) and they can't even change automatically because so many people may have scheduled around the existing date. 

And of course supply can't be absolutely guaranteed so those two weeks act as a sort of buffer.  If there is a really good supply they could then use it to do more first shots otherwise stocks could be built up for those 32,000.  There will be minimal benefit in terms of increased protection in reducing to 10 weeks, so it's not worth the risk or the extra effort. 

In my opinion they should have stuck at 10 weeks (and never gone over 6 for Pfizer) but these are the inevitable consequences of decisions that were made so as to increase the number of first jabs whatever and given that the people complaining that the gap isn't being reduced tended to be the ones who demanded more first jabs back then, they should learn to live with the consequences.

Great explanation of what has been a complex operation and the consequences now of decisions made earlier. The vaccination programme is a huge logistical exercise with many moving parts and very few certainties in terms of supply. And they’re vaccinating humans, with opinions and fears, who are sometimes making unreasonable demands, especially now that they can travel and their vaccination appointment doesn’t suit them any more, they want it brought forward and they don’t understand it’s not that simple.

[Happier diner]

9 hours ago, Itsmeee said:

Great explanation of what has been a complex operation and the consequences now of decisions made earlier. The vaccination programme is a huge logistical exercise with many moving parts and very few certainties in terms of supply. And they’re vaccinating humans, with opinions and fears, who are sometimes making unreasonable demands, especially now that they can travel and their vaccination appointment doesn’t suit them any more, they want it brought forward and they don’t understand it’s not that simple.

I agree that @Roger Mexicoand @John Wrightmake good points and assessments.

I have pondered further and we are missing the main issue and challenge. I'll explain:

Its planned to open the border 30th June. The last o50's are jabbed 2nd week in July. That's not good.

We do not need to bring forward 32,000 appointments. Around 90% of them are fine and well within the window pre opening up. We only need to bring forward the last two weeks worth which surely we can do.

I am firmly in the 'open up' lobby. I think this discrepancy in the timing is a risk to that happening and that's what worries me.

[John Wright]

5 minutes ago, Happier diner said:

I agree that @Roger Mexicoand @John Wrightmake good points and assessments.

I have pondered further and we are missing the main issue and challenge. I'll explain:

Its planned to open the border 30th June. The last o50's are jabbed 2nd week in July. That's not good.

We do not need to bring forward 32,000 appointments. Around 90% of them are fine and well within the window pre opening up. We only need to bring forward the last two weeks worth which surely we can do.

I am firmly in the 'open up' lobby. I think this discrepancy in the timing is a risk to that happening and that's what worries me.

There will always be outliers, people who delayed responding to the invitation or were unable to fit in the first appointment.

And if the 30 June deadline concerns you are you actually wanting a 2 week advance or a 5 week advance? The vaccine, even second dose, doesn’t give immunity/increased immunity immediately.

30/6 is still an aspiration. Let’s see what happens in UK over 6 weeks. It’ll be interesting to see the effect on rates of the opening up of hospitality indoors, hugging, and fans at football matches before making optimistic assumptions.

Ive lost a lot of faith in Cabinet Office and TNS and the travel teams. Forget the almost absent checks, they get almost every bit of documentation wrong. It’s no wonder Steam Packet and welders got into a mess.

Both my direction notices were wrong. They hand delivered ( yes, knock on door physical, not electronic ) replacements. Another family member came over on compassionate grounds and they got his ability to see his parent wrong. He’s now coming for a family visit. Registered Monday. He’s now had two wrong notices. The first requiring isolation for longer than test 1, requiring test 2 on day 6 and then an hours exercise. That isn’t level 2.5. He enquired again, to clarify, now they’ve asked for proof of his purchase/house ownership.  No, he’s visiting family. It’s not rocket science.

[Banker]

39 minutes ago, John Wright said:

There will always be outliers, people who delayed responding to the invitation or were unable to fit in the first appointment.

The people over 50 due in July for second appointments are not outliers, they applied on time & this is the appointment they were given. 

[Happier diner]

35 minutes ago, John Wright said:

There will always be outliers, people who delayed responding to the invitation or were unable to fit in the first appointment.

And if the 30 June deadline concerns you are you actually wanting a 2 week advance or a 5 week advance? The vaccine, even second dose, doesn’t give immunity/increased immunity immediately.

30/6 is still an aspiration. Let’s see what happens in UK over 6 weeks. It’ll be interesting to see the effect on rates of the opening up of hospitality indoors, hugging, and fans at football matches before making optimistic assumptions.

Ive lost a lot of faith in Cabinet Office and TNS and the travel teams. Forget the almost absent checks, they get almost every bit of documentation wrong. It’s no wonder Steam Packet and welders got into a mess.

Both my direction notices were wrong. They hand delivered ( yes, knock on door physical, not electronic ) replacements. Another family member came over on compassionate grounds and they got his ability to see his parent wrong. He’s now coming for a family visit. Registered Monday. He’s now had two wrong notices. The first requiring isolation for longer than test 1, requiring test 2 on day 6 and then an hours exercise. That isn’t level 2.5. He enquired again, to clarify, now they’ve asked for proof of his purchase/house ownership.  No, he’s visiting family. It’s not rocket science.

I can see us heading for a great big cock up here. Maybe I worry unnecessarily but it feels like there's going to be a big cock up and we will have walked right into it eyes wide open. I hope I am wrong.

Hotels are all bursting with bookings from 1st July onwards. People have travel booked from July onwards. If that's all kyboshed because we could be bothered to bring forward a few 'outliers' then how stupid are we going to look.

It seems to have dawned on Jersey but not on us.

 

 

[John Wright]

12 minutes ago, Banker said:

The people over 50 due in July for second appointments are not outliers, they applied on time & this is the appointment they were given. 

And yet, by, at latest, 2nd August they’ll have 2nd vaccinated all the 40’s and 30’s and 20’s who’ve already had first vaccinations. 50’s in July are outliers, whatever the reason.

[Happier diner]

18 minutes ago, John Wright said:

And yet, by, at latest, 2nd August they’ll have 2nd vaccinated all the 40’s and 30’s and 20’s who’ve already had first vaccinations. 50’s in July are outliers, whatever the reason.

I don't know where you get your information John. The 50 to 55s didn't even get their letters until last week in June

[Cambon]

5 hours ago, Happier diner said:

I don't know where you get your information John. The 50 to 55s didn't even get their letters until last week in June

Sorry, but I got mine in March about the same time as banker. First shot early April. A friend early 50's had his the day after me. So 50-59 have been being jabbed since end of march, beginning of April. 

[Happier diner]

3 minutes ago, Cambon said:

Sorry, but I got mine in March about the same time as banker. First shot early April. A friend early 50's had his the day after me. So 50-59 have been being jabbed since end of march, beginning of April. 

I think you will find that they must have been in another category. Seriously vulnerable due to health conditions

The O50's with no health condition are way behind that

[Cambon]

15 minutes ago, Happier diner said:

I think you will find that they must have been in another category. Seriously vulnerable due to health conditions

The O50's with no health condition are way behind that

No. Perfectly healthy. I must admit, I was surprised. But most over 50-55s that I know had there first jab in April. 

[Happier diner]

12 minutes ago, Cambon said:

No. Perfectly healthy. I must admit, I was surprised. But most over 50-55s that I know had there first jab in April. 

Well not according to the Dashboard they didn't! 

[John Wright]

43 minutes ago, Cambon said:

No. Perfectly healthy. I must admit, I was surprised. But most over 50-55s that I know had there first jab in April. 

 

30 minutes ago, Happier diner said:

Well not according to the Dashboard they didn't! 

The sequencing of invites was a mess. I was only alerted to the fact my name had been missed off the list in early March ( I’m 60-65 & allegedly clinically extremely vulnerable ) because my partner ( who is 50-55 and clinically vulnerable ) got his letter. 50’s and clinically vulnerable went out in the same sequencing. It was supposed to be  70’s and CEV for me.

[Cambon]

2 hours ago, Happier diner said:

Well not according to the Dashboard they didn't! 

The dashboard is wrong then. 

[thommo2010]

3 hours ago, Happier diner said:

I think you will find that they must have been in another category. Seriously vulnerable due to health conditions

The O50's with no health condition are way behind that

I'm under 50, had my first jab In May 2nd due in July, I'm not vulnerable 

[Roger Mexico]

2 hours ago, Happier diner said:

I think you will find that they must have been in another category. Seriously vulnerable due to health conditions

The O50's with no health condition are way behind that

No Cambon's right.  Here's the relevant data fro when 50-59 year olds had their jabs:

But the gap had then been set to 12 weeks, so they won't be getting the second jab till late June, early July.