Vaccine- who will have it?

[P.K.]

1 minute ago, TheTeapot said:

There are loads of efficiency studies from all over the world. And obviously lots of different interpretations. If you want to carry on scaring yourself silly then follow psychotic loons like this who'd have us all locked down for years

https://twitter.com/dgurdasani1/status/1396373990986375171

but if you want something much more positive try this

although that thread is a little messier than she'd normally put out. She's had a tough week though, the science wars are hotting up.

As to "If you want to carry on scaring yourself silly" we had our second jabs three weeks ago...

Don't understand why you've posted up what you have.

The issue is that we all have to assess our own risks. So if the efficacy rate is only 33% three weeks after the first jab people should be told that. Because prior to the Indian Variant folks were being told that your protection maxes out at three weeks and jab two is for longevity.

[TheTeapot]

1 minute ago, P.K. said:

 

The issue is that we all have to assess our own risks. So if the efficacy rate is only 33% three weeks after the first jab people should be told that. Because prior to the Indian Variant folks were being told that your protection maxes out at three weeks and jab two is for longevity.

Who? Who told you that? Where has that weird take been written anywhere? 

 

[P.K.]

36 minutes ago, TheTeapot said:

Who? Who told you that? Where has that weird take been written anywhere? 

IIRC that was the justification for pushing out the second jab to 12 weeks

[Gladys]

34 minutes ago, P.K. said:

IIRC that was the justification for pushing out the second jab to 12 weeks

Not if efficacy maxes out at 3 weeks, that surely is justification to keeping the second jab in 2/3 weeks, or do you mean that rather than maxing out, implying it will then start to decline, you really mean reaches its maximum efficacy which is sustained for 8/10 weeks at which time a second jab is needed to further increase overall efficacy (arithmetically, ie adding another 40 to 50 per cent to the existing 40 to 50 per cent, or whatever the actual figures are for each) and secure it for a longer term? 

One thing I am still not clear about is whether the efficacy rates apply individually or en mass.  So, does a 50% efficacy mean half those vaccinated have no protection, or is it that each individual has a one in two chance of contracting it from every infected individual they meet? 

Sorry if that's a stupid question, but I have always visualised it that if you go into a room with 100 infected people you will have the same chances of picking it up as if there were only 50 infected people there. 

Perhaps my non-mathematical mind is over thinking it. 

 

[Happier diner]

3 hours ago, John Wright said:

No, I don’t think my expertise outweighs JVCI. We’ve 40,000 people with 2nd dose appointments between now and end July. 10 weeks. OK, you mess with second appointments, what advantage in numbers does that bring?. Not sure Jersey allocated 2nd dates at time of first, or not. If they didn’t it’s easier to accelerate.

You have stock because this isn’t a just in time operation. We hope we get supply twice a week. But there’s no guarantee. We’ve about 85% of 20+ vaccinated. Even against Indian that gives a reasonable immunity from catching Covid  at all, but, more significantly, a very high level of the disease being asymptomatic or less serious and little or no hospitalisation or transmission. 

If we accelerate, use all stock, then there’s a supply failure we have to cancel.

The lengthening and shortening of interval, whether by JCVI or politicians, is purely political. And it’s based on all sorts of factors, supply, numbers having had first dose, profile of risk of the target community, ease of doing it.

We are in a different position to Jersey. We don’t appear to have it in the community. They have for months. The border is still restricted until at least end June.

Ive no idea how Jersey has apparently got more doses to put into arms. Is it relevant? We are looking at a difference of two weeks in July. 40,000 over 10 weeks that’s 16,000 in July and 8,000 in last 2 weeks of July. Reduce to 8 weeks it’s still 10,000 in July. So it’s only an acceleration of 4,000 after open borders, which is where the risk increases.

If we don’t have Moderna we can’t inject. If supplies of pfizer and Moderna increase then I’m sure we can restart 1st injections early.

No, I don’t think my expertise outweighs JVCI  - you say that then question their advice

Not sure Jersey allocated 2nd dates at time of first, or not. If they didn’t it’s easier to accelerate Good point. No they didn't. I cant understand why we did though 

The lengthening and shortening of interval, whether by JCVI or politicians, is purely political Well its point of view I guess!

UK have been using moderna since first week in April. Maybe we are waiting on the paperwork again.

Maybe Jersey have some sort of vaccination golden goose.

Most importantly tomorrow sees visitors needing just one test. I reckon we'll have cases within a couple of weeks.  I hope I am wrong.

Vaccines save lives, but only when in arms and not in fridges.

I'm not hysterical my view is logical and calm.

[Happier diner]

1 hour ago, TheTeapot said:

Who? Who told you that? Where has that weird take been written anywhere? 

 

It was Dr Jenny Harries

Jenny Harries. Jennifer Margaret Harries OBE is a British public health physician who has been the chief executive of the UK Health Security Agency and head of NHS Test and Trace since April 2021. She was previously a regional director at Public Health England, and then Deputy Chief Medical Officer for England from June 2019 to April 2021.

1. Dr Jenny Harries tells the BBC the "straightforward message" is "get a second dose"
2. She was speaking after data showed two doses of Pfizer and AZ vaccines are effective against the Indian variant
3. But both vaccines are only 33% effective against the Indian variant three weeks after the first dose

Would you rather trust John Wrights expertise or hers?

[John Wright]

16 minutes ago, Happier diner said:

No, I don’t think my expertise outweighs JVCI  - you say that then question their advice

Not sure Jersey allocated 2nd dates at time of first, or not. If they didn’t it’s easier to accelerate Good point. No they didn't. I cant understand why we did though 

The lengthening and shortening of interval, whether by JCVI or politicians, is purely political Well its point of view I guess!

UK have been using moderna since first week in April. Maybe we are waiting on the paperwork again.

Maybe Jersey have some sort of vaccination golden goose.

Most importantly tomorrow sees visitors needing just one test. I reckon we'll have cases within a couple of weeks.  I hope I am wrong.

Vaccines save lives, but only when in arms and not in fridges.

I'm not hysterical my view is logical and calm.

I’m not questioning. The initial advice was 3 week minimum gap for pfizer and 28 days for AZ. In all the updates, from when they extended to 12 weeks,  and now 8, JCVI themselves admit it was for the political reason of balancing vaccination timing efficacy against the threat of prevalence snd was, and is, a balance. It’s not medical.

You say vaccines only save lives when they’re in arms, not fridges. I agree. But you don’t seem able to understand that is exactly what IOM is doing.

Finally, for all your fuss, bluster and hysteria, you don’t seem to get that the number that can be brought forward is small - about 10% of those waiting advanced by 2 weeks

[John Wright]

9 minutes ago, Happier diner said:

It was Dr Jenny Harries

Jenny Harries. Jennifer Margaret Harries OBE is a British public health physician who has been the chief executive of the UK Health Security Agency and head of NHS Test and Trace since April 2021. She was previously a regional director at Public Health England, and then Deputy Chief Medical Officer for England from June 2019 to April 2021.

1. Dr Jenny Harries tells the BBC the "straightforward message" is "get a second dose"
2. She was speaking after data showed two doses of Pfizer and AZ vaccines are effective against the Indian variant
3. But both vaccines are only 33% effective against the Indian variant three weeks after the first dose

Would you rather trust John Wrights expertise or hers?

I’m not contradicting her expertise at all. I’m just pointing out, that, from where we are, reducing to 8 weeks has minimal effect and given supply is probably unacheivable.

And her message is one I wholly endorse. It’s simple. Get your second dose. Don’t assume immunity from only a single dose.

[Happier diner]

3 minutes ago, John Wright said:

- about 10% of those waiting advanced by 2 weeks

Thatll be fine then so long as you are not in that group.

I genuinely hope you are proved right

Edited May 23, 2021 by Happier diner

[Happier diner]

1 minute ago, John Wright said:

I’m not contradicting her expertise at all. I’m just pointing out, that, from where we are, reducing to 8 weeks has minimal effect and given supply is probably unacheivable.

See above

[John Wright]

54 minutes ago, Happier diner said:

Thatll be fine then so long as you are not in that group.

I genuinely hope you are proved right

 

53 minutes ago, Happier diner said:

See above

You don’t ever address how, from where we are, the supply we have, the supply we are likely to have, we gain the two weeks for those people.

Nor do you address the damage that would be done by people missing 2nd doses because dates get changed, or, worse, the damage that would be done to confidence in the vaccination program if we have to pause 2nd vaccinations because we run out.

You're seeing it black and white. It’s not. It’s subtle shades of grey. You think Jersey has done better, well maybe it has, but we’ve both done better than 99% of the rest of the world, and our overall pandemic experience, in number of cases, lockdowns, restrictions, has been much better than that of Jersey.

You should read the JCVI updates for 19 May, the Welsh one is interesting, showing how the various devolved powers have got ahead, fallen behind, will swap position. It’s clearly at least partly political.

Just for the record.

1. we know that vaccines can be allocated by NHS (UK) to CD or OT at enhanced rate. Vide Gibraltar. It was needs based. Has IOM ever had that enhanced requirement due to the Covid numbers?

2. Jersey has had twice the number of cases and nearly double the number of deaths.

 

[TheTeapot]

21 minutes ago, Happier diner said:

It was Dr Jenny Harries

Jenny Harries. Jennifer Margaret Harries OBE is a British public health physician who has been the chief executive of the UK Health Security Agency and head of NHS Test and Trace since April 2021. She was previously a regional director at Public Health England, and then Deputy Chief Medical Officer for England from June 2019 to April 2021.

1. Dr Jenny Harries tells the BBC the "straightforward message" is "get a second dose"
2. She was speaking after data showed two doses of Pfizer and AZ vaccines are effective against the Indian variant
3. But both vaccines are only 33% effective against the Indian variant three weeks after the first dose

Would you rather trust John Wrights expertise or hers?

I have no idea what you are trying to argue here.

Fucking about with 2nd dose from 4 to 12 back to 8 is stupid. 

I'm also extremely dubious about that 33% figure.

[P.K.]

3 hours ago, TheTeapot said:

I have no idea what you are trying to argue here.

Fucking about with 2nd dose from 4 to 12 back to 8 is stupid. 

I'm also extremely dubious about that 33% figure.

It's not stupid.

The UK has cut the gap between doses one and two from 12 to 8 weeks for the over 50's.

This is due to concerns over the spread of the B.1.617.2 variant.

[Happier diner]

3 hours ago, TheTeapot said:

I have no idea what you are trying to argue here.

Fucking about with 2nd dose from 4 to 12 back to 8 is stupid. 

I'm also extremely dubious about that 33% figure.

Dubious. Based on what? Gut feeling? 

[Roger Mexico]

5 hours ago, TheTeapot said:

but if you want something much more positive try this

although that thread is a little messier than she'd normally put out. She's had a tough week though, the science wars are hotting up.

Looking at the full preprint paper I'm not really convinced.   There's no real evidence that the AZ vaccine will continue to improve like a fine wine for months after the second shot.   A large proportion of those who developed Covid after the second shot did so 2-4 weeks after.  That applied to  both vaccines (Pfizer 46% of cases, AZ 74%) and the difference may be due more to the longer average gap between doses for AZ in the period concerned.  It should also be pointed out that the number of cases after both doses in total are pretty small anyway (41 Pfizer, 60 AZ), which in itself is a good thing.

There's actually two different things being confused in that tweet.  One is whether both vaccines do worse against the Indian (B.1.617.2) than the UK (B.1.1.7) variant and the evidence is that it is less effective after one shot than before (33% v 50%) but that it is perhaps a bit less effective after both jabs.  It's close enough it might be chance, but it's the same for both.

The other thing is whether the two vaccines have the same effectiveness generally after both doses and the evidence is that they don't.  Pfizer has a figure of 93%, AZ of 66%.  This isn't a surprise and this is similar to what we have seen since the first trials.  And it applies to both variants, including the UK one that has been dominant for most of this year.  All the Indian one does is perhaps reduce the effectiveness of both a little.

It's worth adding that there does seem evidence (though not in this paper) that both protect very well against developing serious illness.  This is just about the degree of protection from catching symptomatic Covid.