Vaccine- who will have it?

[Happier diner]

5 hours ago, John Wright said:

 

You don’t ever address how, from where we are, the supply we have, the supply we are likely to have, we gain the two weeks for those people.

Nor do you address the damage that would be done by people missing 2nd doses because dates get changed, or, worse, the damage that would be done to confidence in the vaccination program if we have to pause 2nd vaccinations because we run out.

You're seeing it black and white. It’s not. It’s subtle shades of grey. You think Jersey has done better, well maybe it has, but we’ve both done better than 99% of the rest of the world, and our overall pandemic experience, in number of cases, lockdowns, restrictions, has been much better than that of Jersey.

You should read the JCVI updates for 19 May, the Welsh one is interesting, showing how the various devolved powers have got ahead, fallen behind, will swap position. It’s clearly at least partly political.

Just for the record.

1. we know that vaccines can be allocated by NHS (UK) to CD or OT at enhanced rate. Vide Gibraltar. It was needs based. Has IOM ever had that enhanced requirement due to the Covid numbers?

2. Jersey has had twice the number of cases and nearly double the number of deaths.

 

Maybe they did.

You are right and it's too late now as we dont have enough stock. I get that. This however has been an option for many weeks

We could however dose pretty much everyone at least two weeks earlier than current programme. Ashford told us this himself.

It would not be difficult. Just offer a call to 111 for anyone who wishes to bring there vaccination forward. First come first served. Those who dont, dont need to bother.

No stock in storage. All in arms where it should be.

Edited May 23, 2021 by Happier diner

[John Wright]

49 minutes ago, Happier diner said:

Maybe they did.

You are right and it's too late now as we dont have enough stock. I get that. This however has been an option for many weeks

We could however dose pretty much everyone at least two weeks earlier than current programme. Ashford told us this himself.

It would not be difficult. Just offer a call to 111 for anyone who wishes to bring there vaccination forward. First come first served. Those who dont, dont need to bother.

No stock in storage. All in arms where it should be.

You’re still ignoring the practicalities. 

[trmpton]

20 minutes ago, John Wright said:

You’re still ignoring the practicalities. 

Well I agree with him/her.

We can jab 1200 people a day, but don't.

We consistently have thousands of spare doses "on hand"

Just work flat out and jab people when the stuff arrives.  Anything more than 3 days worth of doses in stock is an unnecessary delay.

They are being stupidly cautious in the same way they are with the borders.  How many deliveries haven't turned up when expected?

They were cautious over starting, built stupid expensive hubs, and have consistently held 10k jabs in stock.

Just put them in people when they arrive.  If they did we would be in a slightly better position now for when cases inevitably arrive and would have been in a slightly better position last lockdown to deal with the steam packet farce.

Edited May 23, 2021 by trmpton

[P.K.]

4 hours ago, Roger Mexico said:

Looking at the full preprint paper I'm not really convinced.   There's no real evidence that the AZ vaccine will continue to improve like a fine wine for months after the second shot.   A large proportion of those who developed Covid after the second shot did so 2-4 weeks after.  That applied to  both vaccines (Pfizer 46% of cases, AZ 74%) and the difference may be due more to the longer average gap between doses for AZ in the period concerned.  It should also be pointed out that the number of cases after both doses in total are pretty small anyway (41 Pfizer, 60 AZ), which in itself is a good thing.

There's actually two different things being confused in that tweet.  One is whether both vaccines do worse against the Indian (B.1.617.2) than the UK (B.1.1.7) variant and the evidence is that it is less effective after one shot than before (33% v 50%) but that it is perhaps a bit less effective after both jabs.  It's close enough it might be chance, but it's the same for both.

The other thing is whether the two vaccines have the same effectiveness generally after both doses and the evidence is that they don't.  Pfizer has a figure of 93%, AZ of 66%.  This isn't a surprise and this is similar to what we have seen since the first trials.  And it applies to both variants, including the UK one that has been dominant for most of this year.  All the Indian one does is perhaps reduce the effectiveness of both a little.

It's worth adding that there does seem evidence (though not in this paper) that both protect very well against developing serious illness.  This is just about the degree of protection from catching symptomatic Covid.

If those who read the BBC article I posted up had followed the link inside it then all would have been clearer.

Of course the proposed move from 3 weeks to 12 weeks between jabs was political. It couldn't have been anything else.

This is because you hope your politicos are making decisions based on good data. In this case the data they had was that the efficacy of the AZ vaccine was improved with a later second jab. Not really researched but probably accidentally. All Pfizer could say was that they simply could not guarantee the efficacy of the first jab of their vaccine beyond 21 days! Because ALL of their test subjects had had their second dose 21 days after the first. CYA at a guess.

Hardly a strong case to do it. But it was still the right strategy.

I read somewhere that the efficacy of the first Pfizer jab actually starts dropping away on week ten or so. Don't recall where though.

[Happier diner]

9 hours ago, trmpton said:

Well I agree with him/her.

We can jab 1200 people a day, but don't.

We consistently have thousands of spare doses "on hand"

Just work flat out and jab people when the stuff arrives.  Anything more than 3 days worth of doses in stock is an unnecessary delay.

They are being stupidly cautious in the same way they are with the borders.  How many deliveries haven't turned up when expected?

They were cautious over starting, built stupid expensive hubs, and have consistently held 10k jabs in stock.

Just put them in people when they arrive.  If they did we would be in a slightly better position now for when cases inevitably arrive and would have been in a slightly better position last lockdown to deal with the steam packet farce.

That's right, and although John Wright doesn't get it and talks about only a small percentage benefiting. If it was done this way every single person would get the jab two weeks earlier.

[Dave Hedgehog]

Up to nearly 27,000 doses in stock today. Surely they are now in a position to start accelerating things....

[Happier diner]

3 minutes ago, Dave Hedgehog said:

Up to nearly 27,000 doses in stock today. Surely they are now in a position to start accelerating things....

Would be the words of a logical person? All they need to do is

• put out the word that anyone 50-59 who wants to bring their jab forward two weeks ring 111.
• Then reallocate booking to new time
• Then open vaccinated centre to accommodate

Simples!

[Banker]

11 minutes ago, Happier diner said:

Would be the words of a logical person? All they need to do is

• put out the word that anyone 50-59 who wants to bring their jab forward two weeks ring 111.
• Then reallocate booking to new time
• Then open vaccinated centre to accommodate

Simples!

Sure John Wright who’s had his 2 jabs will be on to argue against it!!

Jersey can manage to do it plus roll out vaccinations passport which we have no information for IOM despite some saying Ashie was looking at

[trmpton]

1 hour ago, Dave Hedgehog said:

Up to nearly 27,000 doses in stock today. Surely they are now in a position to start accelerating things....

Exactly.  It is disgusting that they now have in stock enough to pretty much complete the second jabs for everyone and aren't making it number one priority.

Could have those 27000 all out this week and next if they pulled their fingers out. Leaving us as protected as we could be for the borders opening.

But they won't, because "supply constraints" or some rubbish

[John Wright]

5 hours ago, Happier diner said:

That's right, and although John Wright doesn't get it and talks about only a small percentage benefiting. If it was done this way every single person would get the jab two weeks earlier.

No they wouldn't, but lets not be pedantic.

Today, with 27,000 in stock, I agree that inviting people, week by week, between next week and end July to attend earlier makes sense. Until that change, it didn't. We have never had 17,000 delivered in one week, previously.

[trmpton]

4 minutes ago, John Wright said:

No they wouldn't, but lets not be pedantic.

Today, with 27,000 in stock, I agree that inviting people, week by week, between next week and end July to attend earlier makes sense. Until that change, it didn't. We have never had 17,000 delivered in one week, previously.

Now and July?

Now and 14 days from now.  Its not hard.

[trmpton]

1 minute ago, trmpton said:

Now and July?

Now and 14 days from now.  Its not hard.

I say its not hard.  So far this morning (having ducked about with the census yesterday) I have made 27 phone calls trying to cancel a hospital appointment because I will be recently back from the UK.

Engaged, everytime. No answerphone, no queue, no email address on the letter, no ability to view and alter appointments online.

Logistics isn't really their thing is it?

[John Wright]

Just now, trmpton said:

Now and July?

Now and 14 days from now.  Its not hard.

JCVI are suggesting 8 weeks. the second doses booked are spread over 10 weeks from 10 May, that's why end July.

27,000 doses wont cover the 40,000 people with 2nd jabs booked. 10,000 doses, which we had yesterday, just covered existing bookings to 1 June.

Simples, yesterday we could not accelerate, for pragmatic supply reasons., today we can.   

 

[John Wright]

1 minute ago, trmpton said:

I say its not hard.  So far this morning (having ducked about with the census yesterday) I have made 27 phone calls trying to cancel a hospital appointment because I will be recently back from the UK.

Engaged, everytime. No answerphone, no queue, no email address on the letter, no ability to view and alter appointments online.

Logistics isn't really their thing is it?

All the more reason to be cautious. I've still not got my code, by post, for the census!

[Apple]

11 minutes ago, trmpton said:

I say its not hard.  So far this morning (having ducked about with the census yesterday) I have made 27 phone calls trying to cancel a hospital appointment because I will be recently back from the UK.

Engaged, everytime. No answerphone, no queue, no email address on the letter, no ability to view and alter appointments online.

27 phone calls. Such stamina should be commended. 

May I suggest you send an email to Kathryn Magson CEO DHSC instead then. I am sure she will pass it on. Or indeed any of the new hierarchy in Manx Care like Tess Cope. Or even to the Consultant direct. In fact, email them all just in case.

Probably best not to be included in the monthly statistics for those "no shows" in Out Patients clinic. They don't like that.