Vaccine- who will have it?

[Banker]

5 minutes ago, John Wright said:

They get an allocation. They have to order for it to be delivered. Can you predict what might happen now there’s two weeks off?

I predict stocks will rise & no vaccinations done!!

[John Wright]

Just now, Happier diner said:

Yep. The UK will say "Hey you've got lots already - None for you this week"

I will write to my MHK today

No. They keep the allocation, just don’t arrange delivery. Then, at the end of the two week hiatus they’ll pull down 20,000 doses and hail as a triumph.

What I’m more concerned about, apart from the two week injection break, is the doses on hand/in stock anomaly.

On Monday there were 27,000 doses held. Today there are 14,000. Yet delivery hasn’t been 13,000, it’s been 3,330. We’ve lost 10,000 doses without explanation.

[trmpton]

12 minutes ago, John Wright said:

They get an allocation. They have to order for it to be delivered. Can you predict what might happen now there’s two weeks off?

I am more curious about the 10,000 plus that have vanished since the weekend?

Erroneous figures? Creative accounting? Or have they actually used them all and I can't work the dashboard?

Edited May 27, 2021 by trmpton

[Pipsqueak]

18 minutes ago, Banker said:

Shimmins 

i thought he was dead ??  that onchan mhk chap said so.

[Roger Mexico]

23 minutes ago, John Wright said:

What I’m more concerned about, apart from the two week injection break, is the doses on hand/in stock anomaly.

On Monday there were 27,000 doses held. Today there are 14,000. Yet delivery hasn’t been 13,000, it’s been 3,330. We’ve lost 10,000 doses without explanation.

Hanlon's razor applies: "Never attribute to malice that which is adequately explained by stupidity".   The stock figure showing as at 19/5/21 was 26,824 and as at 26/5/21 was 14,168.  The difference can't be explained by the number of doses given between which was 6716, even if you include those given on both dates and there had been no deliveries.  If there had been a (rather small) delivery of 3300, the number 'missing' is suspiciously close to 10,000.

So a more likely explanation is that last week's figure, rather than being due to the generosity of our English overlords was simply a mistake and there were only ever 16,824 doses to start with.  In those circumstances most of us would simply have gone "Whoops, typo!"  but as no Manx civil servant ever admits to making a mistake, they've hoped no one would notice, despite a week of everyone getting aerated about surplus doses.  No doubt Ashford will tell us that the extra ones were all eaten by a giant space goat. 

[Apple]

54 minutes ago, John Wright said:

On Monday there were 27,000 doses held. Today there are 14,000. Yet delivery hasn’t been 13,000, it’s been 3,330. We’ve lost 10,000 doses without explanation.

How on earth is this happening ? Why go to such lengths to keep the real picture from the public. ? I resembles the shenanigans going on in the UK at the moment. I am sure people will make the connections for themselves.

Boris = Howard 

Hancock = Ashford 

It has turned into farce. 

[John Wright]

13 minutes ago, Roger Mexico said:

Hanlon's razor applies: "Never attribute to malice that which is adequately explained by stupidity".   The stock figure showing as at 19/5/21 was 26,824 and as at 26/5/21 was 14,168.  The difference can't be explained by the number of doses given between which was 6716, even if you include those given on both dates and there had been no deliveries.  If there had been a (rather small) delivery of 3300, the number 'missing' is suspiciously close to 10,000.

So a more likely explanation is that last week's figure, rather than being due to the generosity of our English overlords was simply a mistake and there were only ever 16,824 doses to start with.  In those circumstances most of us would simply have gone "Whoops, typo!"  but as no Manx civil servant ever admits to making a mistake, they've hoped no one would notice, despite a week of everyone getting aerated about surplus doses.  No doubt Ashford will tell us that the extra ones were all eaten by a giant space goat. 

I agree it’s likely a data entry error. The change to 27,000 didn’t actually appear until 24/5. It was 14,000 all weekend. If 19/5 is now showing 27,000 doses in hand someone has cocked up the stealth correction.

( I’m using 27,000 as approximation )

[Happier diner]

5 minutes ago, Apple said:

How on earth is this happening ? Why go to such lengths to keep the real picture from the public. ? I resembles the shenanigans going on in the UK at the moment. I am sure people will make the connections for themselves.

Boris = Howard 

Hancock = Ashford 

It has turned into farce. 

Maybe they could have a job swap

I see Hancock has promised a point by point rebuttal as well. Seems to be phrase of the month.

[Apple]

10 minutes ago, John Wright said:

agree it’s likely a data entry error. The change to 27,000 didn’t actually appear until 24/5. It was 14,000 all weekend. If 19/5 is now showing 27,000 doses in hand someone has cocked up the stealth correction.

( I’m using 27,000 as approximation )

So we haven't lost any then. Good to know. 😀

[trmpton]

Data entry error seems most likely.

Unfortunately when you have a track record of obfuscation, people immediately think you are hiding something rather than assume an error.

[Cambon]

4 hours ago, Banker said:

I predict stocks will rise & no vaccinations done!!

Gosh! Imagine if you had listened to me and contacted your MHK when I said changing the vaccination frequency would cause problems. If we had stuck to the 3-4 week gap, you would have had your second jab and around 68% resistance to the Indian variant. As it stands, you have five weeks to wait with resistance of 30% at best. 

Edited May 27, 2021 by Cambon

[Happier diner]

11 minutes ago, Cambon said:

. As it stands, you have five weeks to wait with resistance of 30% at best. 

That's me!

[trmpton]

19 minutes ago, Cambon said:

Gosh! Imagine if you had listened to me and contacted your MHK when I said changing the vaccination frequency would cause problems. If we had stuck to the 3-4 week gap, you would have had your second jab and around 68% resistance to the Indian variant. As it stands, you have five weeks to wait with resistance of 30% at best. 

Nah.

At the time the change they made was appropriate and in line with the data and how things were developing.

Getting everyone a first jab as a priority was the right thing to do.

They should however have started adjusting a few weeks ago when it became apparent when first doses were going to finish.  As you say the gap was originally only a few weeks, no reason not to go back to anywhere between 4 and 12 weeks, it doesn't need to be so binary.

They should have never pre booked all the 2nd doses so far ahead.

At peak they were doing 2000 a day.  There should be 2000 a day all this week and every week from now on, appointments that were made about 14 days in advance

[KERED]

4 hours ago, Apple said:

How on earth is this happening ? Why go to such lengths to keep the real picture from the public. ? I resembles the shenanigans going on in the UK at the moment. I am sure people will make the connections for themselves.

Boris = Howard 

Hancock = Ashford 

 

Boris = Howard 

Hancock = Ashford 

Cummings = Robertshaw?

[Roger Mexico]

19 minutes ago, Cambon said:

Gosh! Imagine if you had listened to me and contacted your MHK when I said changing the vaccination frequency would cause problems. If we had stuck to the 3-4 week gap, you would have had your second jab and around 68% resistance to the Indian variant. As it stands, you have five weeks to wait with resistance of 30% at best. 

Actually that may not be true.  Depending in which priority group someone is in, reducing the gap between doses would mean that those in groups with higher priority would be fully vaccinated earlier.  But it would also mean those in lower priority groups wouldn't have received any vaccinations at all.  The total number of doses has to remain the same.