Vaccine- who will have it?

[AcousticallyChallenged]

12 hours ago, All Right said:

How do you thoroughly test in six months? Genuine question when it takes several years to get stuff to market normally? As I said I’m not an anti-vaxxer but the amount of checking that must have been bypassed to get this live needs to be acknowledged. That’s all. 

So it's not a bypass of fact checking that's accelerating this.

Usually, vaccine development is a project like any other. Take the Prom for example. You put in an order or request for a bunch of stuff, manufacturer might tell you months as the lead time, and the order might not actually get more than an acknowledgement for weeks.

Now imagine if everyone was dropping everything to get that prom finished. You put in your order, they cancel everyone's orders and start shipping to you instead. They also send all the roadworkers they have and then some more, and you're getting the ones that are the absolutely best at it.

Vaccines typically take years because they're projects, projects in competition for time, resources, money, project approvals and so on.

The Oxford COVID vaccine is using technology that already passed all the human safety trials, before COVID was even a glimpse on the horizon. Essentially, it brings a bit of code into some of your cells, that for a short time, tells them to make the COVID spike. Your immune system then attacks that, the code gets used up and you're back to normal, just with a primed immune system.

Oxford had already developed the delivery mechanism for that code, and proven that safe.

Now, combine this with regulators actually watching data in real time, and being actively interested in the results, you can see how things are being accelerated. Usually, the results would only get presented to them after the trial. At the moment, they're diverting manpower so they can oversee it on the fly.

So, the summary is, vaccine development is significantly quicker when you have a lot of people working on it, everyone is unified towards getting it done, we're using tried and tested technologies to deliver the vaccine, and regulators aren't being typical slow bureaucracy, but watching the results in real time.

Note that at no point in this will any scientists be taking shortcuts, otherwise we'd have it already.

[Gladys]

That all makes sense, the only caveat is time in that no throwing resource at something is going to accelerate time, so any long term implications or effects will only be seen in real time.  Given the need to get an effective vaccine to counter the virus's impact on health, society and economies, and that this not not new technology and there is plenty of expertise and monitoring going on, that is probably a small risk in view of the much wider benefit. 

Edited November 25, 2020 by Gladys

[Roger Mexico]

22 minutes ago, Nom de plume said:

I’m just revisiting this response Roger as it’s been playing on my mind somewhat. I need further educating on it.

I understand the need to vaccinate ‘x’ % of the population to eventually provide some kind of overall immunity to the virus BUT in the short term & in the interests of getting the world moving again (the economy primarily), given over 90% of Covid deaths recorded were aged over 65, is it not prudent to have them prioritised?

I’m also listening to your comments on the levels of ICU occupation but on checking, hospitals across the country are coping relatively well & if the over 65’s are vaccinated first, the strain & burden will ease further.

Regular testing must still be maintained & reasonable precautions (masks, SD, limited gatherings etc) continued until the ‘x’ % is reached?

I thought I'd said that and realised later that the phrasing was a bit ambiguous, but I do agree the priority will need to be for vulnerable groups and those working with them.  I also agree about the need for continuing measures and testing.

Too many people seem believe that 'the vaccine' will provide an instant Get out of Jail Free Card and everything can go back to normal worldwide next week.  But we don't really know enough about how well the various vaccine candidates work yet or if there will be ways stopping spreading as well as preventing serious cases.  It's still very early days.

With regard to ICU usage, it's actually very difficult to find out reliable figures and the Government actually stopped publishing their regular ones in the Spring.  As ever spinning the situation seems more important than managing the reality - which I suppose is what happens when you have a government led by British journalists.  A lot of the stuff I could find was clearly spun politically over the Manchester situation a month ago and as usual failed to consider the way things were trending (as if the NHS should never plan ahead - even for a day).

We do have figures for numbers in hospital with Covid which are about 16,000.  This is around twice what they were a month ago and the figures in the Spring only went a bit over that for a couple of weeks, so things will be fairly hard in ICUs (who are usually pretty busy even at 'quiet' times).  The numbers in mechanically ventilated beds haven't gone up as dramatically, but that seems to be because these were over-used for Covid patients at first.  But not every Covid patient who needs ICU will have to be ventilated.

Obviously if older patients are vaccinated it will help a bit, but my point is that it won't be as much as people think because so many of those who end up in ICU with Covid are younger.

[TheTeapot]

Today in focus podcast is worth a listen, talking vaccine stuff. It's not heavy and just under half an hour, but it raised a couple of things I didn't know, and a couple of things I am going to look up too.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/audio/2020/nov/25/a-vaccine-revolution-podcast

It's often worth a listen, i like Anushka's voice.

[John Wright]

Interesting article on the suitability of the vaccines for people who are immunocompromised with blood cancers.

It also explains how they each work, why the fast testing is ok, and the order in which the vaccine will be rolled out, and why.

of course it’s written to provide some comfort and reassurance to its target audience, people who have or had leukaemias or  lymphomas, it is well written and intelligible.

https://bloodcancer.org.uk/news/coronavirus-vaccine-what-you-need-know/?utm_source=facebook.com&utm_medium=referral&utm_campaign=Coronavirus&utm_term=Vaccine+blog&utm_content=25+Nov&fbclid=IwAR1h4AO2g9A9kmeqnFX5UTd_WdhInj0WufcXgg50fH1hphuYi5JqWbIWorQ

 

[wrighty]

I'll have it.  I'm not going to be trying to jump the queue or otherwise particularly seek it out though, but if someone at the hospital approaches me with a needle I won't run away.

The safety fears I've heard are overstated, and comparisons with Thalidomide are simply ludicrous.  Whatever happens though, no doubt there will be scare stories and Daily Mail articles in the coming years (eg Covid Vaccine possibly responsible for the death of Princess Diana, or Covid Vaccine and the search for Madeleine McCann's abductor)

[Uhtred]

35 minutes ago, wrighty said:

...and Daily Mail articles in the coming years (eg Covid Vaccine possibly responsible for the death of Princess Diana, or Covid Vaccine and the search for Madeleine McCann's abductor)

I admire your pluck but it’s impossible to parody the Daily Mail. These stories will appear.

[kevster]

56 minutes ago, wrighty said:

Whatever happens though, no doubt there will be scare stories and Daily Mail articles in the coming years (eg Covid Vaccine possibly responsible for the death of Princess Diana, or Covid Vaccine and the search for Madeleine McCann's abductor)

It will be the Daily Express that does the Diana one. The Mail will have ‘how Covid-19 vaccine is affecting house prices’. 

[Cambon]

On 11/25/2020 at 8:43 AM, Banker said:

Qantas announced no vaccine no fly 

Good business sense. If everyone is vaccinated, they can fill the planes. Nothing to do with spreading the virus.

[TheTeapot]

I see the oxford/astra vaccine is coming into a fair bit of flack for its trial. I first read about it in the new york times so thought it might have been a hit piece by the others cos it is so much cheaper, but its been picked up everywhere else now. Reading up it is easy to see why it is being viewed with suspicion. There is definitely something a bit dubious about how they've gone about it, 'serendipity' from a mistake etc. Trials continue, they are going to have to go some to convince everyone.

[ellanvannin2010]

23 minutes ago, TheTeapot said:

I see the oxford/astra vaccine is coming into a fair bit of flack for its trial. I first read about it in the new york times so thought it might have been a hit piece by the others cos it is so much cheaper, but its been picked up everywhere else now. Reading up it is easy to see why it is being viewed with suspicion. There is definitely something a bit dubious about how they've gone about it, 'serendipity' from a mistake etc. Trials continue, they are going to have to go some to convince everyone.

Its does not appear to about safety, just the age group profile.

As vaccination is not going to be mandatory then if it bothers you just do not get the jab and accept that you may not be able to travel internationally for a while longer.

I will still have it if offered

[The Duck of Atholl]

I'll definitely have it. So amusing to watch those brave and bold people who didn't mind/care if they got the virus (and in so doing not knowing how it would affect them) now hand wringing over the safety of a clinically tested vaccine.

[Banker]

This is Jersey plan for vaccination, Ashie hasn’t announced ours but probably similar 

https://jerseyeveningpost.com/news/2020/11/27/covid-vaccination-plans-announced/

[Gladys]

5 hours ago, The Duck of Atholl said:

I'll definitely have it. So amusing to watch those brave and bold people who didn't mind/care if they got the virus (and in so doing not knowing how it would affect them) now hand wringing over the safety of a clinically tested vaccine.

In my experience, it is the people who have hidden themselves away who seem to be reluctant, not the people who have tried to maintain a rational and non-hysterical view of this whole thing.  Possibly down to risk appetite or, more cynically, those who quite like having an excuse to absent themselves from life while everyone else runs around for them. 

[Cambon]

4 hours ago, Banker said:

This is Jersey plan for vaccination, Ashie hasn’t announced ours but probably similar 

https://jerseyeveningpost.com/news/2020/11/27/covid-vaccination-plans-announced/

Really? In his briefing on Thursday 19/11, Mr. Ashford said that the plan was already published.  It is care homes and associated staff first, 85 and over plus NHS next, etc. Same as uk.