Airport.

[CallMeCurious]

1 hour ago, Nellie said:

Another day of chaos with Loganair today. It does seem that they can't keep their two ATR's flying for more that a few hours, before some other issue, or crisis, arises. 

Both London City rotations cancelled, as was last night's return. Titan brought in again, for the third time in a week, to operate Heathrow. 

I estimate that Loganair have cancelled around 40 flights to or from the Island, in that last two weeks, alone. It'll be interesting to see the January stats, when they eventually appear. For comparison, easyJet have canclled six, all month, and they were all on Sunday 21st, when the Airport was effectively closed due to the high winds.

Loganair's IOM routes, and base, must be pretty marginal at this time of year, but the costs they are incurring at the moment (EU/UK261, re-routing and hotels, chartering capacity) must mean that they are losing significant money. 

You do have to wonder how bad it has to get before they throw in the towel, and what contingency plans DfE and/or DoI will have, for such a scenario.

Prayer? Or a wing and a prayer.

Also don't they have patient transfer?

Never mind there's always a boat....oh damn! Maybe.

[NoTailT]

2 hours ago, Nellie said:

Another day of chaos with Loganair today. It does seem that they can't keep their two ATR's flying for more that a few hours, before some other issue, or crisis, arises. 

Both London City rotations cancelled, as was last night's return. Titan brought in again, for the third time in a week, to operate Heathrow. 

I estimate that Loganair have cancelled around 40 flights to or from the Island, in that last two weeks, alone. It'll be interesting to see the January stats, when they eventually appear. For comparison, easyJet have canclled six, all month, and they were all on Sunday 21st, when the Airport was effectively closed due to the high winds.

Loganair's IOM routes, and base, must be pretty marginal at this time of year, but the costs they are incurring at the moment (EU/UK261, re-routing and hotels, chartering capacity) must mean that they are losing significant money. 

You do have to wonder how bad it has to get before they throw in the towel, and what contingency plans DfE and/or DoI will have, for such a scenario.

Loganair is understaffed and struggling, not just on the Island.

[Nellie]

1 hour ago, NoTailT said:

Loganair is understaffed and struggling, not just on the Island.

This is true. I see that having retired their last Saab 340 on Saturday, amid approproiate ceremony, it was flying again today, as they had nothing else. 

The CEO has also walked away, within the last week. 

Doesn't make the situation here acceptable though. 

I do hope our leaders are watching the situation carefully, and have some sort of plan.

Edited January 29 by Nellie

[WTF]

1 hour ago, Nellie said:

 

I do hope our leaders are watching the situation carefully, and have some sort of plan.

yes to the first bit, no to the last 

[Hairy Poppins]

1 hour ago, Nellie said:

 

I do hope our leaders are watching the situation carefully, and have some sort of plan.

There is. It involves Dr. Allinson getting out the imperial chequebook, and the DfE Minister writing a begging letter to Emerald Airways (UK). 

[Andy Onchan]

11 hours ago, Banker said:

If it had been the boat it would be headlines on every news site plus all over Facebook, questions in Tynwald etc etc

Indeed. Tynwald should set up a committee to look to see if they can make airlines accountable to CURA! 

[Andy Onchan]

9 hours ago, Nellie said:

This is true. I see that having retired their last Saab 340 on Saturday, amid approproiate ceremony, it was flying again today, as they had nothing else. 

The CEO has also walked away, within the last week. 

Doesn't make the situation here acceptable though. 

I do hope our leaders are watching the situation carefully, and have some sort of plan.

I've always thought that LCY is/was a luxury, a nice to have and I know that the City is important to us but consolidating all traffic to one London airport shirley makes sense?

[Roger Mexico]

We don't have the CAA figures for 2023 yet (and they won't be finalised till March, but IOM Airport as usual produced their own passenger figures early/mid month and also consolidated ones for the year.  As is unfortunately too common, there are obvious signs of sloppiness (the figures for the Belfast airports are the wrong way round, there are two entries for JER/Blue Isles - I have ignored the second) which makes you wonder how reliable the rest of the numbers are.  But they give us a useful summary by route.  I have not just compared the 23 figures to 22 but also the 2019 ones (ex CAA) as well as looking at 'markets' which cover more than one destination. 

IOM Airport Pax 2019 v 2022 v 2023
Dest	Pax 2019	Pax 2022	'22 v ‘19	Pax 2023	'23 v ‘22	'23 v ‘19
BFS	23,970	22,012	-8%	19,975	-9%	-17%
BHD	0	0		8,824
BHX	43,407	22,371	-48%	20,033	-10%	-54%
BRS	28,600	30,794	8%	27,081	-12%	-5%
DUB	42,116	25,287	-40%	38,738	53%	-8%
EDI	7,852	9,723	24%	11,220	15%	43%
GLA	191	0	-100%	0
JER				541
LCY	56,032	17,038	-70%	18,266	7%	-67%
LGW	176,142	149,887	-15%	159,721	7%	-9%
LHR	18,016	20,365	13%	33,182	63%	84%
LPL	254,250	154,297	-39%	171,419	11%	-33%
LTN	25,006	0	-100%	0		-100%
MAN	173,250	96,173	-44%	119,529	24%	-31%
Non-S	5,844	14,543	149%	20,813	43%	256%
NW	427,500	250,470	-41%	290,948	16%	-32%
London	275,196	187,290	-32%	211,169	13%	-23%
BHX	43,407	22,371	-48%	20,033	-10%	-54%
BRS	28,600	30,794	8%	27,081	-12%	-5%
Ireland	66,086	47,299	-28%	67,537	43%	2%
Scot	8,043	9,723	21%	11,220	15%	40%
Other	5,844	14,543	149%	21,354	47%	265%
Total	854,676	562,490	-34%	649342	15%	-24%

Analysis to follow 

Edited January 30 by Roger Mexico
Add link

[Boo Gay'n]

Decanting to sea travel?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-isle-of-man-68128639

[Nellie]

45 minutes ago, Roger Mexico said:

We don't have the CAA figures for 2023 yet (and they won't be finalised till March, but IOM Airport as usual produced their own passenger figures early/mid month and also consolidated ones for the year.  As is unfortunately too common, there are obvious signs of sloppiness (the figures for the Belfast airports are the wrong way round, there are two entries for JER/Blue Isles - I have ignored the second) which makes you wonder how reliable the rest of the numbers are.  But they give us a useful summary by route.  I have not just compared the 23 figures to 22 but also the 2019 ones (ex CAA) as well as looking at 'markets' which cover more than one destination. 

IOM Airport Pax 2019 v 2022 v 2023
Dest	Pax 2019	Pax 2022	'22 v ‘19	Pax 2023	'23 v ‘22	'23 v ‘19
BFS	23,970	22,012	-8%	19,975	-9%	-17%
BHD	0	0		8,824
BHX	43,407	22,371	-48%	20,033	-10%	-54%
BRS	28,600	30,794	8%	27,081	-12%	-5%
DUB	42,116	25,287	-40%	38,738	53%	-8%
EDI	7,852	9,723	24%	11,220	15%	43%
GLA	191	0	-100%	0
JER				541
LCY	56,032	17,038	-70%	18,266	7%	-67%
LGW	176,142	149,887	-15%	159,721	7%	-9%
LHR	18,016	20,365	13%	33,182	63%	84%
LPL	254,250	154,297	-39%	171,419	11%	-33%
LTN	25,006	0	-100%	0		-100%
MAN	173,250	96,173	-44%	119,529	24%	-31%
Non-S	5,844	14,543	149%	20,813	43%	256%
NW	427,500	250,470	-41%	290,948	16%	-32%
London	275,196	187,290	-32%	211,169	13%	-23%
BHX	43,407	22,371	-48%	20,033	-10%	-54%
BRS	28,600	30,794	8%	27,081	-12%	-5%
Ireland	66,086	47,299	-28%	67,537	43%	2%
Scot	8,043	9,723	21%	11,220	15%	40%
Other	5,844	14,543	149%	21,354	47%	265%
Total	854,676	562,490	-34%	649342	15%	-24%

Analysis to follow 

Thanks Roger. Look forward to your analysis, but first (and obvious) impression is that it's a pretty dismal picture.

[Andy Onchan]

42 minutes ago, Nellie said:

Thanks Roger. Look forward to your analysis, but first (and obvious) impression is that it's a pretty dismal picture.

Indeed it is.

Is the LCY route still being subsidised?

[Roger Mexico]

The overall picture is pretty gloomy for the Airport, isn't it.  There's an increase on 2022 of 15%, but that just means they're a quarter down on 2019's passenger numbers rather than a third.  Though 2019 was a good year, the figures are below most of the previous decades as well.  I looked at the figures up to July in a set of previous posts and some of the same comments apply, but here are some random thoughts:

• The biggest absolute fall since 2019 is on LPL with MAN in second place.  Between they had 50% of the air market in 2019, now that is less than 45%.  Some  of that may be patient transfers being down or cancelled flights (which will affect all English airports) but there must also be other reasons.
• More may be due to more people booking sea in the first place: for reliability (stop laughing at the back), lower cost, or because expensive and less available car hire makes taking your car a better option.  The Steam Packet report carrying 632,942 passengers in 2023 and the equivalent figure for 2019 may be 565,423 (they've fucked up their sea figures as well so I can't verify them easily) which implies an increase of 67,519.  But that's still only half the fall in LPL/MAN air traffic (136,552).
• The biggest percentage drops are on BHX and LCY - both of which have traditionally had a higher percentage of business travel.  This is a market that has been falling for decades, but it looks as if Covid and remote working and conferencing have hit it even harder.  Some pax may have transferred to LHR, both for business and long-haul leisure, but the increase there is only 40% of what LCY is down by on 2019.
• London as a whole has fared better than the North West, but even LGW is still 9% down, in pax by more than LHR's rise alone.  There is clearly a fall in casual leisure travel as well as other reasons.  Extra weekends away will be the first thing to go when things get tight.
• Leisure travel is increased however by direct flights which actually carried around 15,000 more people than in 2019.  Some of this may be new business (older people in particular) but it will also have taken from LGW, MAN and LPL.  But it will only be a small amount of the total fall and is still only about 3% of the Airport's usage.
• The Irish market is actually increased slightly on 2019, benefiting from a full year of DUB flights and competition on Belfast. Though the latter looks like it may have killed off both routes.  Despite high cancellations on DUB, it's only 8% down on 2019, but we'll have to see what this year brings.
• Scotland is also nominally up on 2019, possibly more frequent services taking from those travelling indirectly, in turn this may be responsible for some of the fall on MAN in particular.  But it's still a tiny part of the market (1.7% compared to Ireland 10.4%) and the impact won't be great.
• BRS has held up fairly well against 2019, being only 5% down.  But it is the route that has fallen most against 2022 and I wonder if the rumoured cancellation is because easyJet hasn't looked back further and seen that 2022 may have been an anomaly.

I looked at the general air market (particularly 'domestic') more in my previous set of posts but of course I don't have to full year to compare yet.

[Hairy Poppins]

3 minutes ago, Roger Mexico said:

The overall picture is pretty gloomy for the Airport, isn't it.  There's an increase on 2022 of 15%, but that just means they're a quarter down on 2019's passenger numbers rather than a third.  Though 2019 was a good year, the figures are below most of the previous decades as well.  I looked at the figures up to July in a set of previous posts and some of the same comments apply, but here are some random thoughts:

For me the connectivity just isn't there anymore since the demise of Flybe. Yes they weren't the best airline in the world, but we had upto 5 Manchesters, 3 or 4 Liverpools and 4 a day to Gatwick for a time. 

Now the schedules are more sparse and it's just not as easy to go away for a couple of days without losing a large amount of work time, so I just don't bother. 

[Roger Mexico]

Just checked the easyJet site and BRS is showing Mon/Fri from mid-Feb with and extra Wed Summer flight outside school holidays.  BFS doesn't start till April but then has the same pattern.

[Nellie]

1 hour ago, Roger Mexico said:

The overall picture is pretty gloomy for the Airport, isn't it.  There's an increase on 2022 of 15%, but that just means they're a quarter down on 2019's passenger numbers rather than a third.  Though 2019 was a good year, the figures are below most of the previous decades as well.  I looked at the figures up to July in a set of previous posts and some of the same comments apply, but here are some random thoughts:

• The biggest absolute fall since 2019 is on LPL with MAN in second place.  Between they had 50% of the air market in 2019, now that is less than 45%.  Some  of that may be patient transfers being down or cancelled flights (which will affect all English airports) but there must also be other reasons.
• More may be due to more people booking sea in the first place: for reliability (stop laughing at the back), lower cost, or because expensive and less available car hire makes taking your car a better option.  The Steam Packet report carrying 632,942 passengers in 2023 and the equivalent figure for 2019 may be 565,423 (they've fucked up their sea figures as well so I can't verify them easily) which implies an increase of 67,519.  But that's still only half the fall in LPL/MAN air traffic (136,552).
• The biggest percentage drops are on BHX and LCY - both of which have traditionally had a higher percentage of business travel.  This is a market that has been falling for decades, but it looks as if Covid and remote working and conferencing have hit it even harder.  Some pax may have transferred to LHR, both for business and long-haul leisure, but the increase there is only 40% of what LCY is down by on 2019.
• London as a whole has fared better than the North West, but even LGW is still 9% down, in pax by more than LHR's rise alone.  There is clearly a fall in casual leisure travel as well as other reasons.  Extra weekends away will be the first thing to go when things get tight.
• Leisure travel is increased however by direct flights which actually carried around 15,000 more people than in 2019.  Some of this may be new business (older people in particular) but it will also have taken from LGW, MAN and LPL.  But it will only be a small amount of the total fall and is still only about 3% of the Airport's usage.
• The Irish market is actually increased slightly on 2019, benefiting from a full year of DUB flights and competition on Belfast. Though the latter looks like it may have killed off both routes.  Despite high cancellations on DUB, it's only 8% down on 2019, but we'll have to see what this year brings.
• Scotland is also nominally up on 2019, possibly more frequent services taking from those travelling indirectly, in turn this may be responsible for some of the fall on MAN in particular.  But it's still a tiny part of the market (1.7% compared to Ireland 10.4%) and the impact won't be great.
• BRS has held up fairly well against 2019, being only 5% down.  But it is the route that has fallen most against 2022 and I wonder if the rumoured cancellation is because easyJet hasn't looked back further and seen that 2022 may have been an anomaly.

I looked at the general air market (particularly 'domestic') more in my previous set of posts but of course I don't have to full year to compare yet.

This is superb Roger, and very illuminating.

I'd imagine that Team Ronaldsway haven't put anything like as thorough, insightful or honest in front of @Stu Peters

They'll just be looking at the odd crumb of positivity that exists between 2022 and 2023 and slapping each other on their backs. 

Perhaps @Stu Peters can reassure us that there is an Action Plan to arrest this decline?