Airport.

[NoTailT]

6 minutes ago, Roger Mexico said:

The main problem that the Airport has is a simple one that isn't really being discussed.  It's that there just aren't enough passengers, with figures still not back to anything like pre-Covid levels.  The Airport's route figures for 2022 were published last month and they are only shown against those for 2021, which of course indicates an impressive rise.  But compare them to the figures for 2019, which have disappeared from the Government site, but the CAA figures are available for domestic flights (p 16) and separately for non-UK (mainly Dublin) and it's a different picture:

IOM Airport Pax 2019 v 2022
Route	Pax 2019	Pax 2022	Change
BFS	23,970	22,012	-8%
BHX	43,407	22,371	-48%
BRS	28,600	30,794	8%
DUB	42,116	25,287	-40%
EDI	7,852	9,723	24%
LGW	176,142	149,887	-15%
GLA	191	0	-100%
LHR	18,016	20,365	13%
LPL	254,250	154,297	-39%
LCY	56,032	17,038	-70%
LTN	25,006	0	-100%
MAN	173,250	96,173	-44%
Non-Schd	5,844	14,543	149%
Total	854,676	562,490	-34%

Overall numbers are down by about a third.  There will still have been a bit of Covid hangover (Dublin for example didn't restart till mid-March) but even looking at the figures for November, the Airport figures are only about 69% of the CAA ones for November 2019.

Where the drops are is interesting.  There is clearly, as expected, a sharp decline in business traffic, shown particularly with LCY (LHR holds steady on a small base, though a lot of that is also long-haul holidays) and possibly BHX and MAN as well..  Business traffic has been in decline for decades of course, but Covid has clearly had a drastic and probably irreversible effect.

'Marginal' destinations (BFS, EDI/GLA, BRS) have gone back to more or less pre-Covid levels, though they make up less of the market - DUB might join them with a full year's service. The South (apart from business) seems not quite as badly hit as the North, though you need to take into account the absence of LTN.  Competition on MAN doesn't seem to have helped it - the drop is even more than LPL.

How is available number of seats on MAN and LPL compared to pre COVID?

Flybe used to do 4x daily go both. Loganair currently x2.

[TheTeapot]

1 hour ago, Roger Mexico said:

Stats

Are ferry numbers available for the same periods? Are people choosing to travel by boat instead? 

[Non-Believer]

Proof positive that what we need is an airport manager(ess) who could bring numbers up to, say, 1.5 million a year? Where could we find such a person?

[GD4ELI]

3 minutes ago, Non-Believer said:

Proof positive that what we need is an airport manager(ess) who could bring numbers up to, say, 1.5 million a year? Where could we find such a person?

Try a blond this time?

 

[Non-Believer]

6 minutes ago, GD4ELI said:

Try a blond this time?

 

Is that the lawyer? She's in enough shit already 🤭

[Roger Mexico]

1 hour ago, NoTailT said:

How is available number of seats on MAN and LPL compared to pre COVID?

Flybe used to do 4x daily go both. Loganair currently x2.

Not sure (CAA stats aren't detailed enough) but seats may be reduced (on not increased) in response to demand falling below previous levels.  MAN-IOM was introduced by easyJet in 2021, so there ought to be extra capacity, though they stopped the service for part of 2022 which suggests demand wasn't overwhelming.  MAN may have lost a few thousand transfer pax to direct IOM-EDI, but that won't make a lot of difference in the overall drop.

51 minutes ago, TheTeapot said:

Are ferry numbers available for the same periods? Are people choosing to travel by boat instead? 

For some odd reason they stopped issuing harbour numbers after those for September (and the headline figures are for July), so there's no full year figures for 2022.  The cumulative figure for September is 512,410, which compares to 489,150 for ytd the same month in 2019.  Which is an increase of 4.8%, but it would be difficult to tell how much is due to extra TT for example, rather than say locals switching to sea for trips to the North of England.

[ellanvannin2010]

2 hours ago, Roger Mexico said:

The main problem that the Airport has is a simple one that isn't really being discussed.  It's that there just aren't enough passengers, with figures still not back to anything like pre-Covid levels.  The Airport's route figures for 2022 were published last month and they are only shown against those for 2021, which of course indicates an impressive rise.  But compare them to the figures for 2019, which have disappeared from the Government site, but the CAA figures are available for domestic flights (p 16) and separately for non-UK (mainly Dublin) and it's a different picture:

IOM Airport Pax 2019 v 2022
Route	Pax 2019	Pax 2022	Change
BFS	23,970	22,012	-8%
BHX	43,407	22,371	-48%
BRS	28,600	30,794	8%
DUB	42,116	25,287	-40%
EDI	7,852	9,723	24%
LGW	176,142	149,887	-15%
GLA	191	0	-100%
LHR	18,016	20,365	13%
LPL	254,250	154,297	-39%
LCY	56,032	17,038	-70%
LTN	25,006	0	-100%
MAN	173,250	96,173	-44%
Non-Schd	5,844	14,543	149%
Total	854,676	562,490	-34%

Overall numbers are down by about a third.  There will still have been a bit of Covid hangover (Dublin for example didn't restart till mid-March) but even looking at the figures for November, the Airport figures are only about 69% of the CAA ones for November 2019.

Where the drops are is interesting.  There is clearly, as expected, a sharp decline in business traffic, shown particularly with LCY (LHR holds steady on a small base, though a lot of that is also long-haul holidays) and possibly BHX and MAN as well..  Business traffic has been in decline for decades of course, but Covid has clearly had a drastic and probably irreversible effect.

'Marginal' destinations (BFS, EDI/GLA, BRS) have gone back to more or less pre-Covid levels, though they make up less of the market - DUB might join them with a full year's service. The South (apart from business) seems not quite as badly hit as the North, though you need to take into account the absence of LTN.  Competition on MAN doesn't seem to have helped it - the drop is even more than LPL.

LCY will have been for 12 months in 2019 and 7? in 2022, so you would probably need to take account for that, still well down though.

Also LHR ran until the end of the year in 2022 ( well up until whenever in December they switched to LCY for a few weeks) but stopped in October 2019. I think both started in April of the of those years.

[0bserver]

2 hours ago, Roger Mexico said:

The main problem that the Airport has is a simple one that isn't really being discussed.  It's that there just aren't enough passengers, with figures still not back to anything like pre-Covid levels.  The Airport's route figures for 2022 were published last month and they are only shown against those for 2021, which of course indicates an impressive rise.  But compare them to the figures for 2019, which have disappeared from the Government site, but the CAA figures are available for domestic flights (p 16) and separately for non-UK (mainly Dublin) and it's a different picture:

IOM Airport Pax 2019 v 2022
Route	Pax 2019	Pax 2022	Change
BFS	23,970	22,012	-8%
BHX	43,407	22,371	-48%
BRS	28,600	30,794	8%
DUB	42,116	25,287	-40%
EDI	7,852	9,723	24%
LGW	176,142	149,887	-15%
GLA	191	0	-100%
LHR	18,016	20,365	13%
LPL	254,250	154,297	-39%
LCY	56,032	17,038	-70%
LTN	25,006	0	-100%
MAN	173,250	96,173	-44%
Non-Schd	5,844	14,543	149%
Total	854,676	562,490	-34%

Overall numbers are down by about a third.  There will still have been a bit of Covid hangover (Dublin for example didn't restart till mid-March) but even looking at the figures for November, the Airport figures are only about 69% of the CAA ones for November 2019.

Where the drops are is interesting.  There is clearly, as expected, a sharp decline in business traffic, shown particularly with LCY (LHR holds steady on a small base, though a lot of that is also long-haul holidays) and possibly BHX and MAN as well..  Business traffic has been in decline for decades of course, but Covid has clearly had a drastic and probably irreversible effect.

'Marginal' destinations (BFS, EDI/GLA, BRS) have gone back to more or less pre-Covid levels, though they make up less of the market - DUB might join them with a full year's service. The South (apart from business) seems not quite as badly hit as the North, though you need to take into account the absence of LTN.  Competition on MAN doesn't seem to have helped it - the drop is even more than LPL.

It amazes me how Jersey supports four daily BA flights Heathrow - Jersey AND four daily Easyjet flights Gatwick - Jersey. 

We struggle with just a daily Heathrow and one or two Gatwicks and the odd London City. 

 

[John Wright]

35 minutes ago, 0bserver said:

It amazes me how Jersey supports four daily BA flights Heathrow - Jersey AND four daily Easyjet flights Gatwick - Jersey. 

We struggle with just a daily Heathrow and one or two Gatwicks and the odd London City. 

 

Perhaps it’s just a question of geography.

Very few flights to BHX, LPL or MAN and none to EDI in next 24 hours.

Its not just the business market but the family/friends/bucket and spade brigade coming from different hinterlands.

[Banker]

52 minutes ago, 0bserver said:

It amazes me how Jersey supports four daily BA flights Heathrow - Jersey AND four daily Easyjet flights Gatwick - Jersey. 

We struggle with just a daily Heathrow and one or two Gatwicks and the odd London City. 

 

Population is bigger at 108k plus they do get more business travelers from London area with finance being a big sector 

[asitis]

2 hours ago, Non-Believer said:

Proof positive that what we need is an airport manager(ess) who could bring numbers up to, say, 1.5 million a year? Where could we find such a person?

I know one that could get them to 2.5 million a year !

[NoTailT]

40 minutes ago, John Wright said:

Perhaps it’s just a question of geography.

Very few flights to BHX, LPL or MAN and none to EDI in next 24 hours.

Its not just the business market but the family/friends/bucket and spade brigade coming from different hinterlands.

I think cost is a prohibitive factor. Mrs NoTailT often suggests we do a night down in London go to the theatre etc.

Random dates soon. Depart Sat 25th Feb return Sun 26th Feb.

IOM to Heathrow on Loganair? £377.23 per person.

Jersey to Heathrow on BA? £162.19 per person and I chose the fare band that includes a suitcase to match the Loganair offering.

That's far more palatable and would encourage travel.

Edited February 8, 2023 by NoTailT

[Cinderella]

4 hours ago, Roger Mexico said:

The main problem that the Airport has is a simple one that isn't really being discussed.  It's that there just aren't enough passengers, with figures still not back to anything like pre-Covid levels.  The Airport's route figures for 2022 were published last month and they are only shown against those for 2021, which of course indicates an impressive rise.  But compare them to the figures for 2019, which have disappeared from the Government site, but the CAA figures are available for domestic flights (p 16) and separately for non-UK (mainly Dublin) and it's a different picture:

IOM Airport Pax 2019 v 2022
Route	Pax 2019	Pax 2022	Change
BFS	23,970	22,012	-8%
BHX	43,407	22,371	-48%
BRS	28,600	30,794	8%
DUB	42,116	25,287	-40%
EDI	7,852	9,723	24%
LGW	176,142	149,887	-15%
GLA	191	0	-100%
LHR	18,016	20,365	13%
LPL	254,250	154,297	-39%
LCY	56,032	17,038	-70%
LTN	25,006	0	-100%
MAN	173,250	96,173	-44%
Non-Schd	5,844	14,543	149%
Total	854,676	562,490	-34%

Overall numbers are down by about a third.  There will still have been a bit of Covid hangover (Dublin for example didn't restart till mid-March) but even looking at the figures for November, the Airport figures are only about 69% of the CAA ones for November 2019.

Where the drops are is interesting.  There is clearly, as expected, a sharp decline in business traffic, shown particularly with LCY (LHR holds steady on a small base, though a lot of that is also long-haul holidays) and possibly BHX and MAN as well..  Business traffic has been in decline for decades of course, but Covid has clearly had a drastic and probably irreversible effect.

'Marginal' destinations (BFS, EDI/GLA, BRS) have gone back to more or less pre-Covid levels, though they make up less of the market - DUB might join them with a full year's service. The South (apart from business) seems not quite as badly hit as the North, though you need to take into account the absence of LTN.  Competition on MAN doesn't seem to have helped it - the drop is even more than LPL.

Dublin drop is definitely due to flight capacity. Didn’t restart till March, and only once a day (excluding Sat). Aer Lingus pushing it back up to 2 flights most days and restarting Sat from next month. Suspect full year 2023 will be similar to 2019. 

Agree business travel is most likely the core change factor- and the jury is still out on whether change to business practices will be permanent.

[Ringy Rose]

4 hours ago, TheTeapot said:

Are ferry numbers available for the same periods? Are people choosing to travel by boat instead? 

I was wondering the same thing, especially as Manchester Airport in particular was an absolute car crash for most of 2022. I know I avoided Manchester as much as possible.

Edited February 8, 2023 by Ringy Rose

[Ringy Rose]

2 hours ago, NoTailT said:

Random dates soon. Depart Sat 25th Feb return Sun 26th Feb.

IOM to Heathrow on Loganair? £377.23 per person.

Jersey to Heathrow on BA? £162.19 per person and I chose the fare band that includes a suitcase to match the Loganair offering.

That's the end of half-term here, so the flights are full and/or very expensive. Look at what EasyJet are charging from Gatwick on that Sunday.