The Voice of Reason Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 2024 will decide whether the EU thrives or falls apart Frankly Speaking Democracy 12 Dec 2023 Giles Merritt Founder of Friends of Europe Giles Merritt explains why 2024 will be a ‘make or break’ year for Europe. How durable is the European Union? It’s not as solid as we like to think. There’s a fair chance that 2024 will end up in the history books as the sombre counterpoint to 1957, the year when the Treaty of Rome launched the ‘Great Adventure’ of Europe’s unification. Next year sees the coming together of risk-laden deadlines and events that will determine the EU’s likely path over the crucially important coming decade. The European Parliament to be elected in June and a new Commission will face more daunting challenges than at any point in the EU’s history. The prospect of further enlargement to bring in war-torn Ukraine along with a motley collection of Balkan states raises thorny questions about the streamlining of EU decision-taking. Controversy already rages over the degree to which member states, especially smaller ones, could be outvoted and forced to toe an EU line they find unacceptable. Talks about radical reforms would also take place against a background of growing resistance by Europe’s populists to greater EU integration. How deep-seated are Europe’s problems? Could they be so profound as to put in doubt the EU’s future as a geopolitical entity? So much for the more immediate troubles that will beset the EU from next year onwards. More alarming still are the wider pressures on Europe and its beleaguered process of political and economic integration. The EU’s ambition to become a major geopolitical force has yet to be realised, and is instead increasingly being dismissed by both established and emerging powers around the world as a fantasy. Just a bit of food for thought. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
P.K. Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 Hardly! What planet are you on and can you see Earth from up there? An "opinion" piece by a master of the obvious stating that populists like Trump, Johnson and Bolsonaro should never hold high office and that small states in Europe are desperate to align themselves with umbrellas like NATO and the EU to avoid Russian aggression. Not exactly earth-shattering stuff now is it...? But it does try to paint the EU as sailing in choppy waters which is the appeal to brexiteers like you. Seeing that their precious brexit is a complete and utter expensive folly... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Voice of Reason Posted December 31, 2023 Share Posted December 31, 2023 Further reading. I haven’t listed all the 20 reasons for the sake of brevity but have listed those I feel are the most important, most particularly numbers 1 ( especially, perhaps the crux of it all) ,14 and 20. 20 Reasons Why the European Union Will Fall Apart PAUL GOODMAN UPDATED: NOV 10, 2023 9:50 AM EST The European Union has come under pressure from numerous directions in recent years. The credit crunch of 2008, the refugee crisis following the Arab Spring, and the vote by Britain to leave the organization have all led to a sense of doom. The European Union has come under increasing stress in recent years and has shown definite signs of fracturing. Issues arising from the economic crash of 2008, the increase in asylum seekers desiring residence in the EU, and the UK's vote to leave the organization have all taken their toll. Most EU countries now have populist political leaders and parties ready to take advantage of the disillusionment among large segments of the population, and it is not at all certain that the EU will survive Many experts and commentators are predicting its imminent demise based on economic, social, and political flaws. Below are 20 reasons why I believe the EU will fall apart. 1. The central aim of the EU to create political union is misguided. The countries of Europe have their own separate histories and cultures, and many people do not want to exchange their national identities for a European one. In fact, it appears that the EU may be achieving the opposite of its stated intentions and actually fueling extreme nationalism 7. It is a bureaucracy of epic proportions with money wasted left, right, and center. Nobody wants to take responsibility for imposing discipline and making it more lean and efficient. 8. It is slow to react to crises due to having to consult multiple different countries and organizations before any agreements or actions can be implemented. 14. Britain's decision to leave the EU is a severe blow to the organization on many levels. Psychologically it's a blow, because it was never envisaged that countries would want to leave. Economically it hurts, because Britain has a big economy and London is a major international center of trade. Politically it encourages euro-skeptical leaders and parties in other EU countries to be more assertive. The decision by Britain to leave the European Union, known as "Brexit", has raised the fear among many EU advocates that other countries may choose to leave the union, further weakening the power bloc. 15. Some EU decision making requires a consensus between all the countries. This leads to policies being watered-down or problems being kicked down the road, rather than being dealt with in a decisive manner. 20. ( This is for you PK) EU proponents argue that being a member of the EU gives countries a much stronger negotiating platform when it comes to trade deals, but the truth is that EU negotiations tend to be cumbersome and time-consuming. Bilateral agreements between countries could be made much quicker and be catered more closely to the needs of the individual countries, rather than the one-size-fits-all approach of the EU. Trade deals also often result in cheaper goods and labor coming in and undermining the interests of European workers and companies. Anyway it is the season of goodwill. As such I would like to wish my Remainer friends (PK, Manxman 1980, La Columbe, Mr John Wright and any others I may have missed) a Happy New Year Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
P.K. Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 There's an air of desperation creeping in. The author of the above nonsense is a blogger who lives in the USA ffs! It's just pathetic... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Non-Believer Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 I file Brexiteers on the same shelf as Flat Earthers. I ask them to take a trip to the edge of the world and send some pictures back to confirm their views and beliefs. For some reason I'm still waiting... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
manxman1980 Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 13 hours ago, The Voice of Reason said: As such I would like to wish my Remainer friends (PK, Manxman 1980, La Columbe, Mr John Wright and any others I may have missed) a Happy New Year Happy New Year to you. What you do seem to miss is that we all want/need Brexit to be a success! At the moment there is very little evidence of it being a positive move. You can continue to try and find some robustly positive news over the next 12 months. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Voice of Reason Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 1 hour ago, manxman1980 said: Happy New Year to you. What you do seem to miss is that we all want/need Brexit to be a success! Thank you. I agree, but unfortunately there are some on here ( no names) that give the impression they would like to see Brexit fail and will seize on anything that can be construed, however vaguely, as a negative to try and prove their point. I suppose however the converse is true of some Brexit supporters ( again no names!) Anyway let’s hope for more good news and less name calling in the New Year as you are right, it’s in everyone’s best interests for Brexit to succeed. The decision has been made and it’s not going to be reversed ( certainly not anytime soon) Let’s all pull together. Onwards and upwards! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
La Colombe Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
P.K. Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 9 hours ago, The Voice of Reason said: I agree, but unfortunately there are some on here ( no names) that give the impression they would like to see Brexit fail and will seize on anything that can be construed, however vaguely, as a negative to try and prove their point. What on earth are you prattling about...? We are ALL seeing that the totally stupid and completely unnecessary brexit is a failure right now! Even arch-brexiteer Farage admits that it's fallen somewhat behind all his lies and false promises. Dear me, there are none so blind... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Voice of Reason Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 9 hours ago, P.K. said: What on earth are you prattling about...? We are ALL seeing that the totally stupid and completely unnecessary brexit is a failure right now! Even arch-brexiteer Farage admits that it's fallen somewhat behind all his lies and false promises. Dear me, there are none so blind... Whatever But a Happy New Year to you. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
manxman1980 Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 51 minutes ago, The Voice of Reason said: Whatever But a Happy New Year to you. Even @P.K. needs Brexit to be a success but s/he, like I and others, feel that it was a very bad idea and never likely to deliver the claimed benefits to the general public. We have to get on with life now and make the most of it but so far I believe the UK has lost far more than gained and I don’t see that tide turning. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
P.K. Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 10 minutes ago, manxman1980 said: Even @P.K. needs Brexit to be a success but s/he, like I and others, feel that it was a very bad idea and never likely to deliver the claimed benefits to the general public. We have to get on with life now and make the most of it but so far I believe the UK has lost far more than gained and I don’t see that tide turning. I personally believe that the U.K. cannot move forward from brexit until those who voted for that totally stupid and unnecessary farrago admit they fucked the country up... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
manxman1980 Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 2 hours ago, P.K. said: I personally believe that the U.K. cannot move forward from brexit until those who voted for that totally stupid and unnecessary farrago admit they fucked the country up... I tend to agree that those who backed brexit are still euphoric from the victory and have not yet realised what a monumentally bad decision it was. That decision has been made and no amount of "I told you so" will help. The reality is likely to be much worse than brexiteers imagined but slightly better than you or I fear. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Voice of Reason Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 17 minutes ago, manxman1980 said: I tend to agree that those who backed brexit are still euphoric from the victory and have not yet realised what a monumentally bad decision it was. That decision has been made and no amount of "I told you so" will help. The reality is likely to be much worse than brexiteers imagined but slightly better than you or I fear. As has been oft said, you have to look beyond bare economic data, and in particular the way it is sometimes interpreted. There are also some things you can’t quantify in that way ( and yes I do include the ”S” word in that). Yes the whole Brexit process has not been without its obstacles. It was always going to be thus. If more on the Remain side shared the pragmatism of your second paragraph then these unhelpful divisions would lessen and the UK would be better placed to move forward, rather than being continually dragged down by those unable to accept the result. And yes there are those on the Leave side who may be unnecessarily tempted to gloat about the result however provoked, by accusations of racism etc. It’s something I myself have been guilty of on occasion. When you face such nasty allegations it is hard not to hit out in response. But as you allude to, what is done is done and no one’s interests are best served by revisiting old battles. Let’s all hope for a good 2024. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
woolley Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 5 hours ago, manxman1980 said: I tend to agree that those who backed brexit are still euphoric from the victory and have not yet realised what a monumentally bad decision it was. That decision has been made and no amount of "I told you so" will help. The reality is likely to be much worse than brexiteers imagined but slightly better than you or I fear. I think you may be surprised. The situation has darkened for the world in general and Europe in particular this decade. Geopolitics is multifaceted and develops over time. We can but wait and see. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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