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Brexit Penny Dropping?


ManxTaxPayer

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1 hour ago, manxman1980 said:

You seem to be labouring under the impression that trade deals lead to an increase in protections (environmental, workers rights or otherwise) and yet reality does not back that up.

Take the UK Australia trade deal.  Australia has more relaxed rules on the use of pesticides but that appears not to have been an issue for the UK negotiating team who opened up the markets to Australian farmers and in doing so upset the UK farmers who fear being able to compete.  It also failed to protect any geographically specified UK foods such as Cornish Clotted Cream or Scotch Whisky effectively allowing Australia producers to use these terms freely which had previously had protection under EU Law.

George Eustice, who had been involved in negotiating the deal, ended up denouncing it in Parliament and blaming Liz Truss for making far to many concessions.

Far from improving standards it weakened them and is a worse deal than the UK had access to via the EU.

 

Of course the side desperate for any kind of deal has to accept the terms dictated by the stronger side. Signing deals like that just make mountains of red tape now for UK producers to prove country of origin when exporting to other markets. All this nonsense is about political careers — nothing to do with the real needs of the country.

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20 hours ago, Freggyragh said:

Every trade deal on the planet has rules on subsidies. If the UK ever wants to trade freely with the US or UK again it will have to make agreements on all sorts of things, including subsidies, environmental and worker protections. Pretending that you can do away with standards and bi-lateral agreements and still trade freely because 'sovrunty' is what got the UK into this stupid mess.

Just crass. It's impossible and tedious to engage with somebody that refuses to recognise that there is more than their own point of view on a matter, and that those with diverging views are not necessarily stupid.

Nobody is pretending that standards and bilateral agreements can be done away with or that it is even desirable. The EU is not a bilateral organisation though. It speaks for 27.

The UK is not in any greater mess than most other countries in difficult international times.

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21 hours ago, Freggyragh said:

The problem is with the English. They haven't come to terms with losing the Empire. It seems they think they can go back to days when they could dictate trade terms to the colonies and by representing one of the largest markets on the planet, have the upper-hand in deals with the rest of the world. It's fucking delusional. 

Are you a time traveller? If not, you know some very strange English. As for delusional, look in the mirror.

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17 hours ago, Freggyragh said:

You see, you don't seem to understand that treaties are laws. Laws that cover a lot more than tariff arrangements. Now the UK is out, if it wants to the influence the terms of trade set by its largest trading partner it has to negotiate as third country, and the terms of a third country are never going to be as good as the terms of a member — as the steel industry could explain to you, if you were prepared to listen. 

I listen to all aspects and I form a view. Trade will always continue, but trade is not the only issue in the geopolitical situation. You ignore everything else at your peril.

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7 hours ago, manxman1980 said:

 It also failed to protect any geographically specified UK foods such as Cornish Clotted Cream or Scotch Whisky effectively allowing Australia producers to use these terms freely which had previously had protection under EU Law.

 

5 hours ago, Freggyragh said:

Signing deals like that just make mountains of red tape now for UK producers to prove country of origin when exporting to other markets.

I hadn't heard of this aspect of the UK-AUS deal concerning geographically specified products, so I looked it up. The distillers seem happy enough with it. I think it's going to be obvious where products originate just like it already is with wine and whisky. Just sounds like politicking to me.

https://www.scotch-whisky.org.uk/newsroom/swa-welcomes-uk-australia-trade-deal/

Edited by woolley
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11 minutes ago, woolley said:

 

I hadn't heard of this aspect of the UK-AUS deal concerning geographically specified products, so I looked it up. The distillers seem happy enough with it. I think it's going to be obvious where products originate just like it already is with wine and whisky. Just sounds like politicking to me.

https://www.scotch-whisky.org.uk/newsroom/swa-welcomes-uk-australia-trade-deal/

And the UK Farmers?

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33 minutes ago, woolley said:

The UK is not in any greater mess than most other countries in difficult international times.

I like to hang numbers on things to remove the anecdotal. So I started from 2015 which is the year before the madness descended. Now our two biggest trading partners are the USA and the EU. However I have noticed in the last year or so that the OBR have stopped referring to the EU preferring to address the entities as themselves. So a trade comparison will now show the USA, France, Germany and so forth. Don't know why.

Anyway exchange rates:       Jun 2015                Dec 2023

£   ->   €                                   1.38688                   1.15959          GBP down 16%

£   ->   $                                    1.57061                   1.25532         GBP down 20%

for balance:

€   ->   $                                     1.12105                   1.10306          EURO down 1.6% 

UK PLC not looking so good.

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26 minutes ago, P.K. said:

I like to hang numbers on things to remove the anecdotal. So I started from 2015 which is the year before the madness descended. Now our two biggest trading partners are the USA and the EU. However I have noticed in the last year or so that the OBR have stopped referring to the EU preferring to address the entities as themselves. So a trade comparison will now show the USA, France, Germany and so forth. Don't know why.

Anyway exchange rates:       Jun 2015                Dec 2023

£   ->   €                                   1.38688                   1.15959          GBP down 16%

£   ->   $                                    1.57061                   1.25532         GBP down 20%

for balance:

€   ->   $                                     1.12105                   1.10306          EURO down 1.6% 

UK PLC not looking so good.

You're on my home turf here. I buy and sell currency all the time in the business, well not so much personally nowadays, but still. So currencies fluctuate. Who knew? There are petro and reserve currency factors with the dollar, so let's look at the euro. You've been very selective with your dates. Don't know why, but I can inform you that during our membership of the EU, the exchange rate was even more volatile, and fell a lot further.

So £1 = €1.38688 in June 2015 and €1.15959 in Dec 2023, as you helpfully point out.

This might seem devastating until you realise that there have been times during our EU membership that it traded at pretty much where it is now or lower. In Feb 2013, for instance, it traded at €1.154, and in the aftermath of the financial crisis, a lowly €1.02945 in Dec 2008, so no shelter from the storm by virtue of our EU membership. In fact, for 6 years from 2008 to 2014, give or take a few cents, it traded exactly where it is today, so 2015 was the outlier.

Now. In 2000 sterling reached the heady highs of €1.73, so should I claim that our membership of the EU caused the catastrophic decline in the currency from €1.73 to €1.03 in 8 years, even before the Tories got into power and wrecked everything? No. because I'm not stupid.

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7 minutes ago, woolley said:

@P.K. And now you've made me late for 'er indoors. Swine.

Happy To Help!

Who isn't aware of the volatility of currency fluctuations?

Hmmmm except for Liz Truss of course...

The thing is the figures tell a story that can't be disputed.

As I posted previously, brexiteers have diminished our country...

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10 hours ago, manxman1980 said:

  It also failed to protect any geographically specified UK foods such as Cornish Clotted Cream or Scotch Whisky effectively allowing Australia producers to use these terms freely which had previously had protection under EU Law.

Sounds about as trivial as Remainers going on about the colour of passports!

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8 minutes ago, manxman1980 said:

What?

Brexiteers could have had their precious black/dark blue passport whilst in the EU.  That was another red herring.

Are you sure about that?
I don’t remember being given a choice.
I renewed my passport during the period of the UK membership of the EU. The new one came back in the burgundy colour with “ European Union “ writ large on it,

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