Brexit Penny Dropping?

[woolley]

2 hours ago, manxman1980 said:

 

I really want to be clear though that you are misrepresenting my position.   I am not advocating using immigrant labour to do this type of job. 

I am merely

So you don't want British parents sending their kids to do the work and you're not advocating immigrant labour to do it either. Good. Don't know who's going to do it though.

Edited May 27, 2023 by woolley

[woolley]

36 minutes ago, Mr. Sausages said:

 

 

So setting aside covid and the war which weren't even thought of then, and the resultant double digit inflation and collapse in GDP virtually across the world, what are we left with? Not very much really, and trade with the EU is now at higher levels in real terms than it was before Brexit. There are residual problems in some sectors, and we can rely on the Guardian and sections of the UK civil service to amplify them.

Bear in mind that anything coming out of the US about their distaste for Brexit is completely hypocritical, because there is no US administration that would sign up to anything that placed foreign courts, laws or legislatures above their own. In other words, their position on sovereignty is even more absolute than the UK's since Brexit. I'm an admirer of a lot about the US, and generally get on well with Americans, but we should take no lectures from them about this.

[P.K.]

4 hours ago, woolley said:

Well I won't because I don't think it has. It isn't a matter of it "paying off". Independence is an agreeable state of being for its own sake, but as I said earlier, trade with Europe carries on as before. 

@woolley

No it doesn't.

It's nothing like it was before. Talk about being "economical with the truth!"

On his "Windsor" Agreement coup Sunak was gushing about the "enviable" position NI was now in when in reality NI simply had the trading position the entire UK had prior to the completely stupid brexit.

Still, it's enough to fool the brexit zealots...

https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/cbp-7851/

Edited May 27, 2023 by P.K.

[woolley]

27 minutes ago, P.K. said:

@woolley

No it doesn't.

It's nothing like it was before. Talk about being "economical with the truth!"

On his "Windsor" Agreement coup Sunak was gushing about the "enviable" position NI was now in when in reality NI simply had the trading position the entire UK had prior to the completely stupid brexit.

Still, it's enough to fool the brexit zealots...

https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/cbp-7851/

Nonetheless, trade is up.

[P.K.]

9 minutes ago, woolley said:

Nonetheless, trade is up.

With who?

Prior to crashing the economy Truss signed up trade deals of "negative benefit" to the UK and the ONS estimated that the brexit hit to UK GDP was between 4% and 5%. Plus UK inflation is stubbornly very high.

I noticed previously that you tried to dismiss the UK high inflation rate by stating that Germany's was also high. However Germany was very reliant on Russian energy and took the bold decision to reduce it to zero which they achieved at a very high cost. Respect.

[woolley]

1 minute ago, P.K. said:

With who?

 

Europe.

[The Voice of Reason]

8 hours ago, P.K. said:

@woolley

No it doesn't.

It's nothing like it was before. Talk about being "economical with the truth!"

On his "Windsor" Agreement coup Sunak was gushing about the "enviable" position NI was now in when in reality NI simply had the trading position the entire UK had prior to the completely stupid brexit.

Still, it's enough to fool the brexit zealots...

https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/cbp-7851/

From the above link:-

Trade affected by Brexit and other factors

Analysing the impact of Brexit on UK trade is complicated by a number of issues. Other factors, such as the Covid pandemic and the conflict in Ukraine have affected trade flows. This makes it difficult to disentangle the effects of Brexit from other factors. In addition, Brexit has meant changes to the way trade data is collected. These data issues mean caution is necessary in interpreting the trade data. Unless you are P.K of course

( I actually added the last sentence)

[manxman1980]

9 hours ago, woolley said:

So you don't want British parents sending their kids to do the work and you're not advocating immigrant labour to do it either. Good. Don't know who's going to do it though.

Nothing wrong with Brits doing the work which I am certain I have said several times now.

I emphasise again that the type of work under discussion is seasonal.  It is not long term employment and  certainly not a job that requires much training.

Braverman makes it sound like this role is comparable to learning a trade such as plumbing, or brick laying etc.  It isn't.

The work is low skilled and seasonal. 

Braverman would do much better if she concentrated on actual skills gaps and talked about training people there.

[code99]

Farage was telling everybody when he was campaigning to leave the EU that Brexit was not (just) about the GDP but it was all about the QL – the quality of life. He and his ilk argued that Brits, once they were free of the EU’s shackles, would have winds in their sails that would enable them to buccaneer ‘freely’ around the planet. The only wind I have noticed so far has resulted from gastric acid which comes from uttering those forbidden words: “Brexit has failed”. Apparently, according to Farage, the failure to ‘buccaneer’ is due to the “useless Tory government”; and has nothing to do with the reality that Brexit was fundamentally a flawed political hallucination.

As a result of Brexit, the growing lack of skills/suitable staff situation here on the IOM has become acute; so acute that last week our Chief Minister told a House of Commons Select Committee about his desire for the IOM to have its own independent visa system; a system which is completely independent from the UK. He wants the IOMG to have direct control over which migrants can come to work on the Island. This would be an unprecedented change in our relationship with the UK. I suspect that this may also be a pipe dream, and the Tory government won’t budge. Braverman is so desperate to stay the course of Brexit that she is now ‘exploring’ options which would further limit UK residents’ family members (spouses, parents) ability to move to the UK. While she is desperate to reduce the number of migrants coming into the UK our Chief Minister seems desperate to increase the number of migrants coming to the Island.

ETA: If only, back then when Braverman’s parents came to the UK, the UK had had cruel Home Office policies like the ones she wants to implement, neither she nor her predecessor Patel would be here. … We should be so lucky.

Edited May 28, 2023 by code99

[manxman1980]

2 hours ago, code99 said:

ETA: If only, back then when Braverman’s parents came to the UK, the UK had had cruel Home Office policies like the ones she wants to implement, neither she nor her predecessor Patel would be here. … We should be so lucky.

When you look at the current cabinet it really is remarkable just how anti-immigration they are.

[P.K.]

4 hours ago, The Voice of Reason said:

From the above link:-

Trade affected by Brexit and other factors

Analysing the impact of Brexit on UK trade is complicated by a number of issues. Other factors, such as the Covid pandemic and the conflict in Ukraine have affected trade flows. This makes it difficult to disentangle the effects of Brexit from other factors. In addition, Brexit has meant changes to the way trade data is collected. These data issues mean caution is necessary in interpreting the trade data. Unless you are P.K of course

( I actually added the last sentence)

(Did you really??? Well I never...)

The words "straws" and "clutching" spring to mind here...

Back to reality. The ONS estimated a Brexit hit of between 4% and 5% of GDP. Let's take the lower figure of 4% which is about £115bn (well, at the moment anyway...) and look at the much-trumpeted (by the UK right wing press which is to say pretty much all of it) trade deals signed post-brexit and add the best possible cases for a deal with India and the USA:

Country              £bn                 % UK GDP

Australia              2.3                    0.08

Japan                   1.5                    0.07

NZ                       0.8                    0.03

India                    6.2                    0.22

USA                     3.4                    0.16

                          ------                ------

Total                   14.2                   0.56

Now it doesn't take an Einstein to understand the damage brought about by the totally stupid and completely unnecessary brexit. Of course it doesn't help that every country now knows that the UK is desperate to make trade deals and having lost the enormous financial and market clout of the biggest and best trading bloc on the planet future trade deals are going to be "difficult" to put it mildly.

Fucking idiots.

[woolley]

1 hour ago, P.K. said:

The words "straws" and "clutching" spring to mind here...

Back to reality. The ONS estimated a Brexit hit of between 4% and 5% of GDP. Let's take the lower figure of 4% which is about £115bn (well, at the moment anyway...) and look at the much-trumpeted (by the UK right wing press which is to say pretty much all of it) trade deals signed post-brexit and add the best possible cases for a deal with India and the USA:

Country              £bn                 % UK GDP

Australia              2.3                    0.08

Japan                   1.5                    0.07

NZ                       0.8                    0.03

India                    6.2                    0.22

USA                     3.4                    0.16

                          ------                ------

Total                   14.2                   0.56

Now it doesn't take an Einstein to understand the damage brought about by the totally stupid and completely unnecessary brexit. Of course it doesn't help that every country now knows that the UK is desperate to make trade deals and having lost the enormous financial and market clout of the biggest and best trading bloc on the planet future trade deals are going to be "difficult" to put it mildly.

Fucking idiots.

And yet trade with Europe is up, both export and import. The trajectory is continuing and only really paused because of covid. I suggest you get your nose out of the Guardian. In the real world, as I mentioned, there has been disruption in some sectors, but in the main people have not stopped trading because of Brexit. So that's good.

And the good old ONS. I seem to remember them saying that the whole thing would be a catastrophe with the end of the world as we know it immediately after a vote to leave, and yet here we are seven years later with trade still growing having been hit only by the pandemic and subsequent supply shortages. I bet they all read the Guardian too. You don't work there do you?

[woolley]

6 hours ago, manxman1980 said:

Braverman would do much better if she concentrated on actual skills gaps and talked about training people there.

Or her driving.

[woolley]

5 hours ago, code99 said:

Farage was telling everybody when he was campaigning to leave the EU that Brexit was not (just) about the GDP but it was all about the QL – the quality of life. He and his ilk argued that Brits, once they were free of the EU’s shackles, would have winds in their sails that would enable them to buccaneer ‘freely’ around the planet. The only wind I have noticed so far has resulted from gastric acid which comes from uttering those forbidden words: “Brexit has failed”. Apparently, according to Farage, the failure to ‘buccaneer’ is due to the “useless Tory government”; and has nothing to do with the reality that Brexit was fundamentally a flawed political hallucination.

As a result of Brexit, the growing lack of skills/suitable staff situation here on the IOM has become acute; so acute that last week our Chief Minister told a House of Commons Select Committee about his desire for the IOM to have its own independent visa system; a system which is completely independent from the UK. He wants the IOMG to have direct control over which migrants can come to work on the Island. This would be an unprecedented change in our relationship with the UK. I suspect that this may also be a pipe dream, and the Tory government won’t budge.

 

You can't blithely declare "Brexit has failed." as though it were a startup business. It's an assertion of statehood and all that goes with the stature of the country, and how we see ourselves.

Proponents of EU membership invariably blame all current ills on Brexit. Before the referendum it was the other way around. In other words the status quo always gets a bad press, and this is why we have elections so governments can be kicked out rather than the great unwashed getting ideas about a tiresome revolution.

Inflation has been blamed on Brexit, despite the fact that it is rife throughout the world, and at higher levels in some EU countries than it's been in the UK. Likewise, fresh produce shortages (I never noticed any here, but still), even though we had pictures of similar empty shelves across the Republic of Ireland. The facts never handicap a good story angle.

Labour shortages are similar. There is a Brexit effect in this instance, admittedly, but it isn't the most crucial factor. It's a first world problem generally, and certainly in Europe and, essentially, it's one of demographics. Brexit certainly didn't change the profile of the populations in countries where there are just too many economically inactive people. The major contributory reason for the situation is people in their 50s and 60s simply dropping out of the workforce, mainly after covid, having decided they'd had enough. There are far more of these than there are departed EU workers. There are labour shortages in virtually every major developed economy. All due to Brexit?

 

[code99]

6 minutes ago, woolley said:

You can't blithely declare "Brexit has failed." 

Not me, Farage says "Brexit has failed" ... I think Brexit is wonderful 🤣

https://news.sky.com/story/nigel-farage-says-brexit-has-failed-and-economy-has-not-benefited-but-downing-street-disagrees-12882281#:~:text="Brexit has failed%2C" he added.&text=Asked whether he would consider,let us down very badly."