Brexit Penny Dropping?

[woolley]

32 minutes ago, P.K. said:

There's an air of desperation creeping into the posts by the brexiteers probably because as time goes by the sheer folly of the whole farrago becomes more and more apparent...

Well not really. This is why the argument is a pointless circular exercise. I don't see any desperation in posts here. A little excitement from your side, perhaps. We're quite content to be outside the bloc, and things are proceeding as they always do. The world didn't end as was advertised. We get on with our lives and our businesses - covid disruption and inflation permitting.

You have said in the past that the UK used to be a trading nation, but not since the folly of Brexit. Above, you asked me to post the figures to prove that trade has grown in real terms since Brexit, obviously conditioned by your trusty Guardian to believe otherwise. I posted the graph (which doesn't include trade in services, incidentally, where the UK has a surplus), and clearly exasperated and in shock at the data therein, you have deflected onto the trade balance. An oft repeated tactic of yours is to sidestep when proven wrong, but you'll be back soon, no doubt, repeating the same misinformation that trade has collapsed when both imports and exports are higher than before Brexit.

And yes. It's a big trade gap in the EU's favour, but that isn't news. It's been worsening for decades during most of the UK's EU membership. Does it need addressing? Yes. Is it a product of Brexit? No. It's a product of domestic policy and chronic lack of investment and incentives in the manufacturing sector by successive UK governments for many years.

[P.K.]

Agree with the chronic lack of investment etc. Not sure about the trade figures you posted up though.

Prefer these:

"In 2022, the UK exported £340 billion of goods and services to the EU, 42% of total UK exports. The UK imported £432 billion from the EU, 48% of total UK imports. The UK had a trade deficit of £92 billion with the EU compared to a £5 billion surplus with non-EU countries."

Further down the report is some historical data which makes for interesting reading:

"Looking at longer term trends, the share of UK trade accounted for by the EU has fallen. Between 1999 and 2007, the EU accounted for 50-55% of UK exports. By 2022, this figure had fallen to 42%. The share of UK imports from the EU has also fallen since 1999, although by less than for exports."

I can't help thinking that the brexit vote was to make it harder for the UK to trade with it's biggest customer!

Which is beyond stupid...

[woolley]

The trade figures are the trade figures. I don't think you have the option to disagree with them. I also don't think you understand the implications of what you posted there. Note the years quoted for the higher percentage - 1999 to 2007. The fall in percentage terms has continued throughout the period since then to 2022. In other words the EU (the 27), whilst collectively still the UK's largest trading partner, and while trade continued to grow, has declined in importance during the period in percentage terms, including the years from 2007 to 2016 when the UK was a member (and after during the transition period). So again an effect not instigated by Brexit but long predating it.

[P.K.]

I do understand the implications.

The graphs you posted up really demonstrated the volatility of recent years which is not good for the markets generally. 

However coming out of the Single Market and Customs Union was beyond stupid. Especially as it was just a sop to the ERG led by intellectual colossus Mark Francois.

Some 80% of UK businesses are SME's and they have taken a battering from brexit and covid which almost certainly accelerated a reduction of trade with the biggest and best trading bloc on the planet. Unfortunately this is at a time when our government's stock is at a very low ebb on the world stage due to factors too numerous to mention which makes expanding UK trade elsewhere a somewhat uphill battle....

Basically it's a shit sandwich...

[Albert Tatlock]

Meanwhile...pro brexit -1 anti-brexit 1.

...and we're still stuck with just getting on with things.

[P.K.]

8 hours ago, Albert Tatlock said:

Meanwhile...pro brexit -1 anti-brexit 1

Have you checked VAR?

[P.K.]

I suppose I should reply to this:

 

On 5/28/2023 at 8:42 PM, woolley said:

Well not really. This is why the argument is a pointless circular exercise. I don't see any desperation in posts here. A little excitement from your side, perhaps. We're quite content to be outside the bloc, and things are proceeding as they always do. Your "I'm all right Jack"  attitude is known and noted. But things are not proceeding as they always do. There's been quite a  sea change that even you must have noticedThe world didn't end as was advertised. We get on with our lives and our businesses - covid disruption and inflation permitting.

You have said in the past that the UK used to be a trading nation, but not since the folly of Brexit. Above, you asked me to post the figures to prove that trade has grown in real terms since Brexit, obviously conditioned by your trusty Guardian to believe otherwise. I posted the graph (which doesn't include trade in services, incidentally, where the UK has a surplus), and clearly exasperated and in shock at the data therein, you have deflected onto the trade balance. - I realised you had not given a clear picture so I posted up the correct figures. Frankly I was surprised at the size of the trade gap. Had I known I would have added "making it harder to do business with your biggest customer is fucking stupid" back in 2016!. An oft repeated tactic of yours is to sidestep when proven wrong, but you'll be back soon, no doubt, repeating the same misinformation that trade has collapsed - the Woolster hyperbole - always worth a laugh when both imports and exports are higher than before Brexit.

And yes. It's a big trade gap in the EU's favour, but that isn't news. It's been worsening for decades during most of the UK's EU membership. Does it need addressing? Yes. Is it a product of Brexit? No. It's a product of domestic policy and chronic lack of investment and incentives in the manufacturing sector by successive UK governments for many years. - I could post up story after story of SME's giving up on doing business with the EU because costs are higher, it's a PITA and margins are being eroded.

All the rest of the G7 countries are now back to their pre-pandemic levels. The UK is not. In fact, in growth terms it might be propping up the G20 just above Russia. The UK also had very little dependence on Russian energy, about 5% if memory serves. But still our inflation rate is stubbornly high with food prices being particularly affected. Now something is causing that.

Brexit is a reality. It's a shit sandwich and we all have to take a bite. I find it impossible to believe your claim that the EU is trying to create a "superstate" or whatever the UK right wing press dream up next which according to you meant we should leave ASAP. Just when the UK was doing very nicely in the EU thank you very much indeedy. As I have pointed out if it was headed that way then that would be the time to trigger Article 50 only without leaving the Single Market and Customs Union which was beyond stupid.

Sure there are all the usual hackneyed "sovereignty" "self-determination" and "the EU is just a bunch of unelected faceless bureaucrats" so-called arguments which are all complete bollox as any fule kno.

Incidentally I got my new passport and put it next to an old one. It seems that those involved in the "colour matching" created a complete fuckup because it's not blue it's basically black but it seems no-one is prepared to admit it.

Much like brexit really...

[The Voice of Reason]

8 minutes ago, P.K. said:

l

Incidentally I got my new passport and put it next to an old one. It seems that those involved in the "colour matching" created a complete fuckup because it's not blue it's basically black but it seems no-one is prepared to admit it.

Much like brexit really...

Your passport colour is not a “ fuckup” be it dark blue or black. Is that your best anti Brexit argument?

It’s not really a issue.

The only thing that matters is there is no mention of the EU on it. Sovereignty.

I suppose if you want to you could Tippex “ I love the EU” on the front of it if you feel so inclined.

[manxman1980]

8 hours ago, The Voice of Reason said:

Your passport colour is not a “ fuckup” be it dark blue or black. Is that your best anti Brexit argument?

It’s not really a issue.

The only thing that matters is there is no mention of the EU on it. Sovereignty.

I suppose if you want to you could Tippex “ I love the EU” on the front of it if you feel so inclined.

Genuine question as I hold an Isle of Man passport issued pre-brexit...

Inside the passport is a statement from the Sovereign of the UK asking that the holder be allowed entry to the country they are travelling to (or words to that affect).  Have any changes been made to that statement post-Brexit or have the only changes been the colour and the removal of a reference to the EU on the cover?

[Ringy Rose]

On 5/28/2023 at 9:18 PM, woolley said:

The trade figures are the trade figures. I don't think you have the option to disagree with them.

For context, though, the “massive upturn” in the raw figures coincides with a) inflation running at 12% and b) Liz Truss crashing the value of the pound. Factor both in and there’s been very little difference.

Of course the raw figures also don’t consider the costs of doing that trade. Companies may still trade but extra bureaucracy means higher costs and a reduced margin (export) or higher shelf prices (import).

11 hours ago, The Voice of Reason said:

The only thing that matters is there is no mention of the EU on it. Sovereignty.

Ah yes, sOvRiNtY. That catch-all response when Brexitists can’t actually explain why the sunlit uplands are more fetid than fantastic after Brexit.

It’s quite pathetic really.

[The Voice of Reason]

4 hours ago, manxman1980 said:

Genuine question as I hold an Isle of Man passport issued pre-brexit...

Inside the passport is a statement from the Sovereign of the UK asking that the holder be allowed entry to the country they are travelling to (or words to that affect).  Have any changes been made to that statement post-Brexit or have the only changes been the colour and the removal of a reference to the EU on the cover?

Not got mine to hand but I believe those are the only changes.

As with the old one it’s not the Sovereign of the UK that requests the holder is admitted to the country without let or hindrance etc but it’s the Lieutenant Governor of the Isle of Man making the request.

 

[manxman1980]

5 hours ago, The Voice of Reason said:

Not got mine to hand but I believe those are the only changes.

As with the old one it’s not the Sovereign of the UK that requests the holder is admitted to the country without let or hindrance etc but it’s the Lieutenant Governor of the Isle of Man making the request.

 

Presumably the UK passport has a statement from the monarch and not a Lieutenant Governor?

 

[The Voice of Reason]

3 minutes ago, manxman1980 said:

Presumably the UK passport has a statement from the monarch and not a Lieutenant Governor?

 

I would imagine so. Does the UK have an LG?

I don’t know

ETA yes they do. I’ve just googled it

Edited May 31, 2023 by The Voice of Reason

[John Wright]

34 minutes ago, manxman1980 said:

Presumably the UK passport has a statement from the monarch and not a Lieutenant Governor?

 

No.

32 minutes ago, The Voice of Reason said:

I would imagine so. Does the UK have an LG?

I don’t know

ETA yes they do. I’ve just googled it

No, it’s a request by James Cleverley, as Foreign Secretary.

“Her Britannic Majesty's Secretary of State requests and requires in the name of Her Majesty all those whom it may concern to allow the bearer to pass freely without let or hindrance and to afford the bearer such assistance and protection as may be necessary.”

They haven’t copped on that we’ve had a transition of regal gender yet. Using up all the old ones.

[manxman1980]

@John Wright it must be costing a small fortune to keep updating all of the Foreign Secretaries never mind the Monarch!