Manx Gas MEGA Price Rise

[Banker]

9 hours ago, Ringy Rose said:

I wouldn't believe a word of what comes out of Jo Cox's mouth. She's a liar in a long line of Ancala liars.

What other "mechanisms"? Doesn't matter how you slice it, if Ancala say they don't have any money then only an imbecile would extend any form of credit to them. Because if Ancala were telling the truth then MG were weeks from going bust. CURA think they genuinely did have cash flow issues. I wouldn't put it past Ancala to use bankruptcy as a negotiating tactic; it's a hedge fund staple.

There is a reason why the new regulatory regime has split out the network costs from the retail costs. I'm revising my opinion of CURA, certainly the CEO seems more switched on than I gave him credit for earlier in the thread.

My understanding is that MUA are not a broker, they are a reseller. And, simply, if they hedged they'd be supplying gas to MG that they'd never be paid for.

Well Rob Callister shouldn’t be stating MG should have hedged more when he effectively prevented them from doing so. Also OFT were tasked with regulating gas but did nothing & were so incompetent it was taken off them & given to communication commission 

[Ringy Rose]

4 minutes ago, Banker said:

Well Rob Callister shouldn’t be stating MG should have hedged more when he effectively prevented them from doing so.

No, they prevented themselves from doing so by not providing the appropriate information and guarantees.

The blame here- as always- is with Ancala's duplicitous nanagement. 

[Banker]

30 minutes ago, Ringy Rose said:

No, they prevented themselves from doing so by not providing the appropriate information and guarantees.

The blame here- as always- is with Ancala's duplicitous nanagement. 

 

31 minutes ago, Ringy Rose said:

No, they prevented themselves from doing so by not providing the appropriate information and guarantees.

The blame here- as always- is with Ancala's duplicitous nanagement. 

Probably blame on both sides but it’s clear that MUA wouldn’t do hedging & then said MG should have done more hedging 

[Bandits]

10 hours ago, Ringy Rose said:

I wouldn't believe a word of what comes out of Jo Cox's mouth. She's a liar in a long line of Ancala liars.

 

I’d tend not to believe a word that comes out of the MUA “Chairman’s” mouth either. He blamed the huge price increases on Manx Gas for not hedging when they should of. It now seems to transpire that they wouldn’t facilitate Manx Gas in hedging as their broker. He also didn’t support getting the regulation of Manx Gas in and as you say at least CURA are being vaguely effective so far.

[Ringy Rose]

1 hour ago, Bandits said:

It now seems to transpire that they wouldn’t facilitate Manx Gas in hedging as their broker.

They're not a broker and MG wouldn't provide the required information. If the info had been provided, they'd have done the reselling.

It's almost as though MG didn't want to provide information that would undermine their claims of poverty...

I'm no fan of Callister either, but this one is all on MG.

1 hour ago, Bandits said:

He also didn’t support getting the regulation of Manx Gas

He hasn't said why. I'm not in support of the regulatory regime either- it's far too kind to MG, and I've long questioned why were giving millions to a middleman when the MUA can do it all itself- but who knows why he wasn't in favour.

I am starting to have a bit more faith in CURA though.

[Bandits]

22 minutes ago, Ringy Rose said:

They're not a broker and MG wouldn't provide the required information. If the info had been provided, they'd have done the reselling.

It has already been established by Callister himself above that they provide an execution only trading facility to Manx Gas to allow them to access the wholesale market. There is clearly a arrangement in place for the buying/trading or natural gas.

[Ringy Rose]

56 minutes ago, Bandits said:

There is clearly a arrangement in place for the buying/trading or natural gas.

There is, MG buy their gas from MUA, who buy it on their behalf. It doesn't make MUA a broker, though that doesn't really matter. Nor does it protect the MUA from the consequences of a MG default.

The latter is important when MG were busy telling everyone, including CURA, that they didn't have a pot to piss in. I know CURA were genuinely worried MG would default.

MUA didn't want to do it without evidence Ancala would pay them. Ancala didn't want to provide that evidence as it undermined their argument for a huge rise. Seems the ball was in MG's court. I'd not be brokering/trading without evidence I'd be getting paid.

It really does seem that Ancala were trying to have their cake and eat it.

Edited April 15, 2022 by Ringy Rose

[Happier diner]

26 minutes ago, Ringy Rose said:

There is, MG buy their gas from MUA, who buy it on their behalf. It doesn't make MUA a broker, though that doesn't really matter. Nor does it protect the MUA from the consequences of a MG default.

The latter is important when MG were busy telling everyone, including CURA, that they didn't have a pot to piss in. I know CURA were genuinely worried MG would default.

MUA didn't want to do it without evidence Ancala would pay them. Ancala didn't want to provide that evidence as it undermined their argument for a huge rise. Seems the ball was in MG's court. I'd not be brokering/trading without evidence I'd be getting paid.

It really does seem that Ancala were trying to have their cake and eat it.

You are right. They are not a broker as such. MUA merely onward sell the gas to MG at cost as far as I know.

[Bandits]

20 minutes ago, Ringy Rose said:

There is, MG buy their gas from MUA, who buy it on their behalf. It doesn't make MUA a broker, though that doesn't really matter.

It does make it broker. They place trades on Manx Gas’ behalf into the wholesale market. That’s an agent or brokerage relationship. These sorts of trades are covered all the time where the party placing the trade might ask it’s client for other ways to back a trade such as requesting a margin call or requiring other sorts of mechanisms as surety. It’s quite odd that the “Chairman” has been so vocal that Manx Gas didn’t hedge which they should of done whilst presumably being fully aware (as a Chairman should) of why they didn’t as they wouldn’t let them place the trades.

[Ringy Rose]

1 hour ago, Bandits said:

They place trades on Manx Gas’ behalf into the wholesale market.

Except they don't, they buy on MG's behalf then resell it to them. The MUA are not an introducer. And if MG went bump, the MUA would be out of pocket having supplied gas to them without being paid for it.

It's possibly semantics, but the important point is that the financial risk was on the MUA if MG didn't pay. So that's why the MUA didn't want to offer a credit line to a company who were pleading extreme poverty.

So what Callister said is entirely true. MG could have hedged, they could have supplied the appropriate credit information to the MUA, but they chose not to. Of course Callister's statement preceded the Tynwald hearing, so I can understand why he was circumspect about *how* MG chose not to hedge. But the point that is that the MUA didn't "refuse" to hedge for MG. MG chose not to supply the required information to allow the hedge.

[Banker]

18 minutes ago, Ringy Rose said:

Except they don't, they buy on MG's behalf then resell it to them. The MUA are not an introducer. And if MG went bump, the MUA would be out of pocket having supplied gas to them without being paid for it.

It's possibly semantics, but the important point is that the financial risk was on the MUA if MG didn't pay. So that's why the MUA didn't want to offer a credit line to a company who were pleading extreme poverty.

So what Callister said is entirely true. MG could have hedged, they could have supplied the appropriate credit information to the MUA, but they chose not to. Of course Callister's statement preceded the Tynwald hearing, so I can understand why he was circumspect about *how* MG chose not to hedge. But the point that is that the MUA didn't "refuse" to hedge for MG. MG chose not to supply the required information to allow the hedge.

You’re obviously a MUA employee trying to deflect blame!!

[Bazza Smurf]

4 hours ago, Ringy Rose said:

They're not a broker and MG wouldn't provide the required information. If the info had been provided, they'd have done the reselling.

It's almost as though MG didn't want to provide information that would undermine their claims of poverty...

I'm no fan of Callister either, but this one is all on MG.

He hasn't said why. I'm not in support of the regulatory regime either- it's far too kind to MG, and I've long questioned why were giving millions to a middleman when the MUA can do it all itself- but who knows why he wasn't in favour.

I am starting to have a bit more faith in CURA though.

Hi. 

I read what you say on this matter with great interest. When you say that the MUA can do it all itself, can I just ask how? MUA own the primary infrastructure and MG own all the secondary infrastructure. MUA would essentially have to buy MG out surely to take over the whole supply of gas to the individual boilers. Is that what you mean? 

 

 

 

[SleepyJoe]

It's probably only worth buying out MG if there is to be a significant move to hydrogen in the next decade

[Ringy Rose]

45 minutes ago, Banker said:

You’re obviously a MUA employee trying to deflect blame!!

Obviously.

It couldn't possibly be that Ancala Partners LLP are lying. After all, Ancala Partners LLP have never lied before.

Still, in the spirit of lending money to people with no evidence they can repay it, will you lend us fifty grand?

43 minutes ago, Bazza Smurf said:

MUA own the primary infrastructure and MG own all the secondary infrastructure. MUA would essentially have to buy MG out

Yes, I'm aware of that, although the infrastructure in and around Douglas was installed by the predecessors of MG before it was privatised. It's also worth noting the new regulations are designed to separate the network costs and retail costs with a view to introducing competition in the future.

It's more, as you say, I'd be up for the MUA buying MG out, certainly on the network side. I don't see what value they bring for their profit margin. I never have. There's a stronger justification for buying out MG than there ever was for buying the Steam Packet.

[Bandits]

1 hour ago, Ringy Rose said:

Except they don't, they buy on MG's behalf then resell it to them. The MUA are not an introducer. 

 

That’s a broker or intermediary. 

As for Mr Callister you’ll be hearing nothing from him until after the weekend with him being off island. But his statement was clear. They trade on behalf of Manx Gas (or clearly also don’t on certain occasions).