Gas deposit

[code99]

Even if the IOMG grants a license extension, the chances of a small private company being able to raise the necessary funds for a gas exploration well are not very high. IMHO, two things are likely to happen: a) nothing, or b) the IOMG will part fund the exploration in order to ‘earn a percentage share of future success.’ The big question for the IOMG is whether this venture is worth a flutter; after all, the IOM is the home to a hell of a lot of gambling - our investments (flutters) in film industry flopped, the funding of the power station was a screw up, Douglas Prom and Liverpool Dock are financial travesties from which ‘lessons are being learnt’. It seems that over the years we have had a litany of bad luck … until perhaps now. Is anyone in the IOMG thinking “Maybe there is a bonanza jackpot out there just waiting to be discovered, and the Island will benefit from it for many years to come?”

A 3D seismic survey provides better quality data about oil/gas reserves than a 2D, but it does not guarantee success; nothing but drilling actual wells does. There are plenty wells with fantastic 3D seismic surveys that end up being dusters or commercially unviable deposits, as @Johnny F correctly pointed out. I suspect that in the current ‘climate’ (no pun intended), it would be politically unpalatable to drill for gas in our waters. The UK Govt could put pressure on the IOMG to let this opportunity slide until the political ‘vibes’ from COP26 and maybe COP27 too have slipped quietly into the rear-view mirror (oh, the hypocrisy of it all).

[A fool and his money.....]

10 hours ago, Andy Onchan said:

Believe it or not the multi-trillion global energy industry already has answers to your questions in the form of Production Sharing Agreements (PSA). It's not as if IOMG would be doing all of this for the first time, ever. It's all been done before. PSAs have been around for 50/60 years.

I couldn't care less what the industry call the questions or the answers or how long they have called them that.

All I care about is that the questions are asked and the answers are known and binding before any gas is extracted.

Believe it or not construction contracts have been around for many years too - didn't stop the prom, the NSC or the landing stage going way over time and budget did it?

It's not difficult to predict this gas being extracted, Crogga making a fortune, the Manx Government being out of pocket and the cost of gas to the Manx consumer being the same or very slightly less than it was before.

Then our transition to renewables being delayed because we're contractually committed to Crogga and the gas, and any profit (unlikely) will being spunked on the latest over-budget vanity project.

We haven't got time for "lessons to be learned" when it comes to climate change. Either be 100% certain it's all going to go the way we want it to, or don't bother, it's as simple as that!

[Happier diner]

1 hour ago, A fool and his money..... said:

Ah but you're assuming that how much gas is burned is not influenced by how much gas is available and at how much that gas costs.

Basic economics would suggest you are wrong in that assumption.

No it wouldn't. The use of gas does not alter much because of the price. It's mostly a necessity. 

[Happier diner]

1 hour ago, A fool and his money..... said:

I couldn't care less what the industry call the questions or the answers or how long they have called them that.

All I care about is that the questions are asked and the answers are known and binding before any gas is extracted.

Believe it or not construction contracts have been around for many years too - didn't stop the prom, the NSC or the landing stage going way over time and budget did it?

It's not difficult to predict this gas being extracted, Crogga making a fortune, the Manx Government being out of pocket and the cost of gas to the Manx consumer being the same or very slightly less than it was before.

Then our transition to renewables being delayed because we're contractually committed to Crogga and the gas, and any profit (unlikely) will being spunked on the latest over-budget vanity project.

We haven't got time for "lessons to be learned" when it comes to climate change. Either be 100% certain it's all going to go the way we want it to, or don't bother, it's as simple as that!

I'm not seeing any risk to the isle of man government other than reputation. They ( IOM gov) are not investing anything. 

[The Voice of Reason]

If the gas reserves are there and it can be demonstrated it is economically viable to extract it it would be irresponsible not to do so.

Until such time that 100% renewable energy becomes a reality  (like if perpetual motion ever does)

[Gladys]

13 minutes ago, Happier diner said:

I'm not seeing any risk to the isle of man government other than reputation. They ( IOM gov) are not investing anything. 

Let's hope it stays that way. 

[A fool and his money.....]

1 hour ago, Happier diner said:

No it wouldn't. The use of gas does not alter much because of the price. It's mostly a necessity. 

The use of gas in not a necessity, there are alternatives. Will our move to those alternatives be quicker if gas is cheap or quicker if gas is expensive? 

[A fool and his money.....]

1 hour ago, Happier diner said:

I'm not seeing any risk to the isle of man government other than reputation. They ( IOM gov) are not investing anything. 

The risk is the IoM Government will give away a polluting mineral resource the (probably modest) benefits of which will be wasted. The Manx energy consumer will benefit little and Crogga will be coining it in.

The biggest risk IMHO is that it will further delay our leaden move towards renewable energy.

[A fool and his money.....]

As a nation we've been all too ready to compromise our moral fortitude in the name of making a quick buck.

We have a tax system which is unfair to most of our own residents and which encourages the benefits of genuine economic activity in other (often poor) countries to be diverted through here. Giving Lewis Hamilton a £3M vat rebate on his private jet for example, while allowing our own people to rely on food banks.

We bend over backwards to every whim of International gambling companies which encourage vulnerable people the world over to get into crippling debt.

Perhaps for once we should do the right thing. Perhaps we should think of the rest of the world, or of future generations. It's not their fault we've been Jurassic in our move to renewable energy. It's not their fault we've wasted long millions on numerous ill-conceived capital projects, or paying the UK to defend us from imaginary enemies.

Leave the gas in the ground.

[b4mbi]

26 minutes ago, A fool and his money..... said:

The risk is the IoM Government will give away a polluting mineral resource the (probably modest) benefits of which will be wasted. The Manx energy consumer will benefit little and Crogga will be coining it in.

The biggest risk IMHO is that it will further delay our leaden move towards renewable energy.

It will accelerate the move to renewables because the funds will be available to invest in them and won't have to be borrowed or taxation raised to pay for it.

[A fool and his money.....]

1 minute ago, b4mbi said:

It will accelerate the move to renewables because the funds will be available to invest in them and won't have to be borrowed or taxation raised to pay for it.

In which case there will be absolutely no problem in answering the questions I suggested and in standing behind the answers 100%.

[finlo]

2 minutes ago, A fool and his money..... said:

In which case there will be absolutely no problem in answering the questions I suggested and in standing behind the answers 100%.

What will we be relying on to back up these renewables?

[A fool and his money.....]

20 minutes ago, finlo said:

What will we be relying on to back up these renewables?

Energy storage is a rapidly advancing technology. For example you can pump water uphill into a reservoir in times of excess and release via hydro electric at times of need.

There are other ways too, lifting huge weights in towers to be released very controllably like a giant grandfather clock is another. There's potential to do this in the ground rather than building towers.

We also have a bidirectional interconnector.

[finlo]

Just now, A fool and his money..... said:

Energy storage is a rapidly advancing technology. For example you can pump water uphill into a reservoir in times of excess and release via hydro electric at times of need.

There are other ways too, lifting huge weights in towers to be released very controllably like a giant grandfather clock is another. There's potential to do this in the ground rather than building towers.

We also have a bidirectional interconnector.

They'd only be short term solutions, what if the wind don't blow or the sun don't shine for several weeks?

[GD4ELI]

2 minutes ago, A fool and his money..... said:

Energy storage is a rapidly advancing technology. For example you can pump water uphill into a reservoir in times of excess and release via hydro electric at times of need.

There are other ways too, lifting huge weights in towers to be released very controllably like a giant grandfather clock is another. There's potential to do this in the ground rather than building towers.

We also have a bidirectional interconnector.

More than 40 years ago the Dinorwig Power Station - Wikipedia came into being. I visited once while at Bangor university.

Residential solar cell installations support batteries.