Gas deposit

[Non-Believer]

7 minutes ago, Stu Peters said:

I rarely disagree with Gladys, but if the revenue estimates are even roughly correct, I'd like to see healthcare sorted, roads fixed and the pension deficit tamed before any money goes on Greta F. Thunberg schemes. Money should be set aside for those technologies when they have evolved more, yes. But let's not make the mistake of paying an early adopter premium.

There's also a £4.8Bn hole that certain people have a self-interest in....? The numbers of whom are also growing. That needs looking at too or the hole will continue to grow exponentially 

Edited December 8, 2021 by Non-Believer
Clarity

[the stinking enigma]

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Edited December 8, 2021 by the stinking enigma

[Gladys]

2 minutes ago, Stu Peters said:

I rarely disagree with Gladys, but if the revenue estimates are even roughly correct, I'd like to see healthcare sorted, roads fixed and the pension deficit tamed before any money goes on Greta F. Thunberg schemes. Money should be set aside for those technologies when they have evolved more, yes. But let's not make the mistake of paying an early adopter premium.

The problem is, Stu, that if the windfall is not ringfenced, it will be pissed up various walls without any significant benefit to anything including health, education, pension deficit, roads.  

If the price of getting the green lobby onside is to ringfence the income, that has surely got to happen? 

Those things listed are kind of "ordinary course of business" .  This will be an extraordinary windfall, which should be applied to extraordinary purposes. If anything is left over, then fine, but ringfencing it will sharpen a few pencils when making other decisions, otherwise it will just be gobbled up by the great maw that is the inefficiencies we are constantly living with. 

On the pension deficit, have the pension rules changed for new entrants to at least provide an end date to the mounting liability?

[Non-Believer]

"Ring-fenced" in the same way as VED is currently dedicated to road-maintenance, for instance...?

[Gladys]

Just to add, why wouldn't you use it to basically give everyone cheap power, ignoring any green credentials?  Iceland use their volcanic 'assets' to provide very cheap heat and power, FFS, they even heat their pavements!

ETA, renewables not the gas, which has to be phased out. 

Edited December 8, 2021 by Gladys

[finlo]

19 minutes ago, Gladys said:

Just to add, why wouldn't you use it to basically give everyone cheap power, ignoring any green credentials?  Iceland use their volcanic 'assets' to provide very cheap heat and power, FFS, they even heat their pavements!

ETA, renewables not the gas, which has to be phased out. 

Nikola Tesla faced his demise for daring to suggest such a thing!

[Johnny F]

Where the fuck did this gas fantasy arise from? and will everyone please stop believing its a reality.

IF there was a viable gas deposit out there it would have already been developed ! There are licence blocks right alongside the one in Manx waters and a UK company could drill into it (our Maughold head gas!!! ha ha ha) and suck it all up. The reason they haven't is probably because its not financially viable. I would speculate that the reason Crogga haven't even done a seismic survey is that they can't get investors to back them. The whole oil/gas industry is a gamble, for a long time even in the North Sea 1 in 3 wells were dusters! The costs to develop a gas well are face blistering,  Seismic survey, semi sub drilling rig, subsea well head, gas pipe line to UK refinery then the cost of cleaning up and refining the gas before you then supply it. It used to cost about 3 million to simply drill a well about 20years ago and as I said 1 in 3 were dry, thats ok for Shell or BP with big a platform in place and multiple completions in the same reservoir but the small scale operators these days who are simply scraping the last bits of life out of depleted wells would simply go bust. Thats my opinion, but I've only drilled a couple of gas wells.

Also has it ever occurred to anyone that there could be unscrupulous operators out there who just see the Manx government as a huge cash cow?

With my green head on I'd suggest we need a big wind farm on the land up north until we develop better ways of making power like tidal or nuclear.

[The Voice of Reason]

1 minute ago, Johnny F said:

Where the fuck did this gas fantasy arise from? and will everyone please stop believing its a reality.

IF there was a viable gas deposit out there it would have already been developed ! There are licence blocks right alongside the one in Manx waters and a UK company could drill into it (our Maughold head gas!!! ha ha ha) and suck it all up. The reason they haven't is probably because its not financially viable. I would speculate that the reason Crogga haven't even done a seismic survey is that they can't get investors to back them. The whole oil/gas industry is a gamble, for a long time even in the North Sea 1 in 3 wells were dusters! The costs to develop a gas well are face blistering,  Seismic survey, semi sub drilling rig, subsea well head, gas pipe line to UK refinery then the cost of cleaning up and refining the gas before you then supply it. It used to cost about 3 million to simply drill a well about 20years ago and as I said 1 in 3 were dry, thats ok for Shell or BP with big a platform in place and multiple completions in the same reservoir but the small scale operators these days who are simply scraping the last bits of life out of depleted wells would simply go bust. Thats my opinion, but I've only drilled a couple of gas wells.

Also has it ever occurred to anyone that there could be unscrupulous operators out there who just see the Manx government as a huge cash cow?

With my green head on I'd suggest we need a big wind farm on the land up north until we develop better ways of making power like tidal or nuclear.

Thanks Andrew LN

(I’ve been dying to do that for years)

[finlo]

9 minutes ago, Johnny F said:

Where the fuck did this gas fantasy arise from? and will everyone please stop believing its a reality.

IF there was a viable gas deposit out there it would have already been developed ! There are licence blocks right alongside the one in Manx waters and a UK company could drill into it (our Maughold head gas!!! ha ha ha) and suck it all up. The reason they haven't is probably because its not financially viable. I would speculate that the reason Crogga haven't even done a seismic survey is that they can't get investors to back them. The whole oil/gas industry is a gamble, for a long time even in the North Sea 1 in 3 wells were dusters! The costs to develop a gas well are face blistering,  Seismic survey, semi sub drilling rig, subsea well head, gas pipe line to UK refinery then the cost of cleaning up and refining the gas before you then supply it. It used to cost about 3 million to simply drill a well about 20years ago and as I said 1 in 3 were dry, thats ok for Shell or BP with big a platform in place and multiple completions in the same reservoir but the small scale operators these days who are simply scraping the last bits of life out of depleted wells would simply go bust. Thats my opinion, but I've only drilled a couple of gas wells.

Also has it ever occurred to anyone that there could be unscrupulous operators out there who just see the Manx government as a huge cash cow?

With my green head on I'd suggest we need a big wind farm on the land up north until we develop better ways of making power like tidal or nuclear.

Why up north? That where the best weather reliably is, solar maybe?

[Non-Believer]

13 minutes ago, finlo said:

Why up north? That where the best weather reliably is, solar maybe?

North is flatter, less obstructions for wind flow? Same as windfarms being sited at sea (nimbys notwithstanding)?

[b4mbi]

21 minutes ago, Johnny F said:

Where the fuck did this gas fantasy arise from? and will everyone please stop believing its a reality.

You may be right, but equally you may be wrong. 

LET'S FIND OUT, that's the whole point!

In the current environment with high gas prices and energy security scares, they at the very least deserve a fair chance.

[Non-Believer]

6 hours ago, b4mbi said:

It has already been proven as there, in test wells drilled by BP in 1982 here and quoting from that report

"the prospects are larger than the estimates made by BP, a 3D seismic survey is needed to accurately define these prospects"

Only five hours ago, you were assuring that the gas is there.

Now it's "You may be right, you may be wrong...... Let's find out"....?

Edited December 8, 2021 by Non-Believer
Typo

[AcousticallyChallenged]

Some may decry it as pie in the sky Greta Thunberg thinking, but the reality is, the need for gas is going to decrease significantly as energy supplies change. 

The popularity of gas is already waning, the UK uses 20% less overall now than they did in 2010. A third lower than the peak in 2004. 

In terms of electricity generation, gas has dropped from supplying 175 TWh in 2010, to 114 Twh in 2020. Assuming we used less power from the disruption of 2020, 2019’s figure was still down to 131 Twh from gas. By comparison, overall electricity consumption fell by 3.6% in 2020. 

Renewables generated over 43% of all the energy used in the UK last year, that figure is climbing as they build more. 

These promises of hospitals, pensions and more are all well and good. 

But, what if by the time we’ve built it all, we end up with the gas that nobody wants anymore?

[A fool and his money.....]

It's fine to let Crogga find out what's there, at their own expense. But before a spade goes in the ground we should have water tight contracts detailing;

How much will it cost the Manx Government?

How much will the Government pay for the gas?

How much gas will the Government be able to export?

How much will Crogga make from it?

How much will the Manx consumer pay for the gas vs. what we pay now?

What will the environmental impact be?

How long will it be before we can switch to renewables with the income from the gas vs. how long would it be if we left it in the ground?

 

These are all logical and reasonable questions to be asked - and the answers should be binding, backed up by huge fines if they're significantly wrong. Extracting fossil fuels flies in the face of our "climate emergency" ,it's only right that we therefore need to know what we're getting into.

I wouldn't mind betting if these questions were asked and the answers made contractually binding, one or more likely all the interested parties (Crogga, IoM GOV and GMP) would lose all interest in the idea.

Sadly I doubt they're unlikely to be asked, let alone answered.

[b4mbi]

15 minutes ago, Non-Believer said:

Only five hours ago, you were assuring that the gas is there.

Now it's "You may be right, you may be wrong...... Let's find out"....?

Ffs it is there, the let's find out means let's find out how much is there.