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Just now, thommo2010 said:

He isn't going to use nuclear weapons, IF he did Russia would be flattened in no time

If Russia has no place in the future world, then he probably won't care.  That's the really scary prospect. 

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45 minutes ago, The Phantom said:

I think the Oligharchs are the only way out of this.  Putin won't listen or care about the little people. 

I would also add China to that.  If China openly turn against Putin then he really will be isolated.

I am disregarding North Korea as they have very little global influence and if they were not backed by Russia and China would probably have already collapsed.  

I am also ignoring Belarus, which may as well be a part of the Russian Federation anyway. 

The only other nations that seem to be reluctant to sanction Russia are Hungary (because Orban) and India. 

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55 minutes ago, manxman1980 said:

 

The only other nations that seem to be reluctant to sanction Russia are Hungary (because Orban)

Quote

"Hungary made clear that we support all the sanctions, so we will block nothing, so what the prime ministers of the European Union are able to agree, we accept it and we support it," - Victor Orban, 26/2

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/hungary-wont-block-any-sanctions-against-russia-pm-orban-says-2022-02-26/

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Sad to say I think Putin's agenda is now clear. He doesn't give a shit about global opprobrium and sanctions, we're all pissing into the wind. His aim is to recreate the glory days of the USSR and if that means the New USSR is a global pariah with closed borders, captive subjugated population and almost zero external trade then so be it. That's what the old USSR felt like, and Putin was a happy bunny then. USSR vs Rest of World, it worked then, in his mind it could work now and would be better for Russia, and Russia has a good stockpile of nukes.

Only question in my mind is which state is next on his list if he succeeds in reclaiming Ukraine. Obviously can't reclaim those which have since joined NATO without getting into a very big fight, but all the adjacent ex-Soviet non-NATO states are probably in play to create the largest bloc he can.

I think the best hope is that he is assassinated by his own people, his control of Russia is nothing like as strong or extensive as the old Politburo used to have.

Just my 2d. Utterly depressing.

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7 minutes ago, craggy_steve said:


I think the best hope is that he is assassinated by his own people, his control of Russia is nothing like as strong or extensive as the old Politburo used to have.

 

Seriously, this is it. Put up a bounty, $50m no questions asked.

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I'd have a small bet on China settling this. They know this could get out of hand and may see the long game to support NATO and Europe. Do they want to deal with a clapped out Russia under Putin, or the wealthy West, which they largely control already through their massive exports. China's future is surely in the markets of the Western World... 

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16 hours ago, Freggyragh said:

Putin is not our fault.

Of course he isn’t, and there is no excuse for the barbarism being played out by the present despotic regime all the way up to Putin. This doesn’t mean that the West is blameless in its whole approach to the geopolitical situation in Europe, however. We haven't exactly covered ourselves in glory.

Having skimmed through this thread I am surprised that the lack of foresight by the US and NATO has not been raised and discussed. The fundamentals that have culminated in this situation go back decades. After the collapse of the Soviet Union, particularly in the early 90s, there were many signs of openness and democracy trying to take root in Russia. There was a nascent positive future there that the West could have latched on to and encouraged. People were looking for help, aid, assistance and advice having emerged from a 70 year repressive nightmare. In the event a promising hand was played very badly indeed, and Russia was effectively snubbed as irrelevant to the modern world and at the same time regarded with suspicion.

Then, despite the West saying that NATO would not expand to the East, it did so anyway. Instead of embracing the fledgling post-Soviet Russia as an equal to be respected, at a time when nobody was threatening anybody, we parked tanks and missiles on their lawn. Had different decisions been made by the US and the West, might we have seen a different Russia emerge, with the likes of Putin and his unreconstructed KGB henchmen a million miles away from power, and consigned to the dustbin of history?

This is an interesting piece. There's a certain amount of rewriting history involved, but I believe the thrust of it stands up. It really didn't have to turn out the way it looks today.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/feb/28/nato-expansion-war-russia-ukraine

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