Andy Onchan Posted September 30, 2022 Share Posted September 30, 2022 23 hours ago, La_Dolce_Vita said: I don't agree with this idea that Russia would be conquering Europe if Ukraine fell. I haven't come across anything that points to that. All sounds far fetched. Ukraine isn't in NATO but Poland is. Any conflict there would be war with the West. Even with Ukraine, it's quite a different thing to conquer another country than it is to impose a client state or friendly state. The men may have a sense of purpose and be disciplined after this but from the looks of things this won't be until plenty of men, women, and children continue to be killed. There is little noble about this conflict. It's a disaster for Russia, the Ukraine and for Europe. China, the US and India are doing well from it though. It's just a shame how quiet people are for wanting peace and how in this country (and the UK) there is little thought to the conflict other than vague notion of supporting Ukraine but to what end I don't know. What exactly are the Ukraine's aims? I can't see the Ukraine shifting the Russians out of the Donbas, nevermind the Crimea, and then the Ukraine will have to deal with partisan fighting in the Donbas even if it did push the Russians out. I think the best the Ukraine might get is to accept autonomy for the Donbas within the Ukraine, annexation of Crimea and to stay neutral. The Indians are laughing at the Russians. They can almost name their own price for oil. When regime change takes place (and it will), make no mistake Ukraine will be looking to exact revenge and settle a lot of scores in the currently occupied areas. The idea that Ukraine will just roll over is naive. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
P.K. Posted September 30, 2022 Share Posted September 30, 2022 Putin is a bit bollocksed really. The Ukrainians are a clever, bold and tenacious adversary who will have no fears over Putin's threats of tactical nuclear strikes nor his 300,000 recruits. The US has already stated if Putin uses nuclear they will counter-strike with conventional munitions. This is clever. If the Russian nuclear capability is anything like their ground forces it will not be very effective. The US have also sent a clear message that they will not escalate a nuclear exchange and they can achieve their aims anyway. Which will be a massive relief to the Chinese. The 300k muzhiks may well end up being wasted on a futile effort to take the rest of the "new" parts of Russia. Because these days it's not so much about boots on the ground but everything to do with firepower. The numbers are about having to have an advantage of at least 4-to-1 before you can even consider launching an assault. Assuming things will quiet down over the winter months then Putin has 6 months in which to train his new assault elements. Good luck with that one... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
code99 Posted September 30, 2022 Share Posted September 30, 2022 On 9/29/2022 at 5:58 PM, La_Dolce_Vita said: What exactly are the Ukraine's aims? I can't see the Ukraine shifting the Russians out of the Donbas, nevermind the Crimea, and then the Ukraine will have to deal with partisan fighting in the Donbas even if it did push the Russians out. I think the best the Ukraine might get is to accept autonomy for the Donbas within the Ukraine, annexation of Crimea and to stay neutral. 4 hours ago, La_Dolce_Vita said: US disregarded that the Ukraine was Russian's backyard. It's all well and good the Ukraine turning away from Russia but with US political and military support it is understandable how Russia did this under provocation. If Putin was to be overthrown then any future Russian regime would likely want to hold on to these annexed regimes. You’re portraying Ukrainians as sub-humans who do not deserve their own homeland. But the good news is that you are living in a free country (unlike Russia) where you are legally able to express your Russian propaganda point of view. And I am entitled to completely disagree with you. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
La_Dolce_Vita Posted October 1, 2022 Share Posted October 1, 2022 I'm not saying that the Ukraine is not justified in fighting to defend its homeland. It has been invaded illegally and has every right to resist and should do. What I'm saying is that if this defence comes close to any nation seriously threatening the nuclear weapons, nevermind using them, then that is too high a price. And talk of such things being acceptable in this conflict and in the same breath giving the Ukraine support is so grossly stupid and detached from any consideration of the Ukrainian people and the people of the rest of the world then I can't take seriously any genuine concern for the Ukrainian people. A Russian propaganda point? In what way? What Russia has done by invading the Ukraine is a war crime and it is also a mistake. It wasn't a good idea engaging in this conflict and Russia knows that. Russia would not likely have invaded if it knew that things would pan out in the way that they have. It has damaged its economy and only given the US far greater influence and control over Europe. Russia geopolitical and economic power and influence has only diminished for the sake of the Donbas and Kherson and making it clearer that it means business about any NATO expansion. But if this war continues then that only means more deaths for innocents and brings the West and Russia closer to a more general war. It's a limited war even in the context of the Ukraine and Russia fighting. Russia isn't obliterating the Ukraine's infrastructure and it could do so. But if this conflict risked a wider war or was to last much longer then the risks only increase. The Ukraine isn't at all likely to retake the Donbas, Kherson, and the Crimea so when will negotiation be a serious and prime consideration for dealing with the problem? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
La_Dolce_Vita Posted October 1, 2022 Share Posted October 1, 2022 17 hours ago, P.K. said: Putin is a bit bollocksed really. The Ukrainians are a clever, bold and tenacious adversary who will have no fears over Putin's threats of tactical nuclear strikes nor his 300,000 recruits. The US has already stated if Putin uses nuclear they will counter-strike with conventional munitions. This is clever. If the Russian nuclear capability is anything like their ground forces it will not be very effective. The fact that the US has serious plans to engage militarily in the Ukraine is worrying enough in itself when it has done so little push for negotiation. All it has done of late is to say that it wants to have the Ukraine retake more territory and be given military support to do this so it has a stronger negotiation position. But how achievable is this and what will the US terms be for supporting negotiation? Though the US should be pushing for negotiation sooner rather than later to prevent the use of nuclear weapons given what such use entails by way of devastation and setting a precedent for acceptability, and escalation. That would be the responsibility that the US should have if it was acting for the good of Ukraine and the world but as a self interested power that's doing very well from this conflict it is not likely. With Russia making such a difficult job of holding these regions, I can't see it doing a better job were it to try to invade other nations, especially with NATO support, which is why I find such talk to be a bit silly. I can appreciate how Russia is limiting it's attack to the Ukraine's military but, as you say, it is making a poor go of things. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Old Git Posted October 1, 2022 Share Posted October 1, 2022 42 minutes ago, La_Dolce_Vita said: The fact that the US has serious plans to engage militarily in the Ukraine is worrying enough in itself when it has done so little push for negotiation. You want to negotiate more of Ukraine over the Russia? Where does it stop? It’s like paying a blackmailer- they’ll keep coming back for more. 3 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
P.K. Posted October 1, 2022 Share Posted October 1, 2022 3 hours ago, La_Dolce_Vita said: The fact that the US has serious plans to engage militarily in the Ukraine is worrying enough in itself when it has done so little push for negotiation. All it has done of late is to say that it wants to have the Ukraine retake more territory and be given military support to do this so it has a stronger negotiation position. But how achievable is this and what will the US terms be for supporting negotiation? Though the US should be pushing for negotiation sooner rather than later to prevent the use of nuclear weapons given what such use entails by way of devastation and setting a precedent for acceptability, and escalation. That would be the responsibility that the US should have if it was acting for the good of Ukraine and the world but as a self interested power that's doing very well from this conflict it is not likely. With Russia making such a difficult job of holding these regions, I can't see it doing a better job were it to try to invade other nations, especially with NATO support, which is why I find such talk to be a bit silly. I can appreciate how Russia is limiting it's attack to the Ukraine's military but, as you say, it is making a poor go of things. The Ukraine is a sovereign nation. It's not up to the US how Ukrainians feel about negotiating (they don't) with Russia over their land grab. Although talks have already taken place. The Ukraine has made it very clear that they want their territory back. Fair enough because an aggressor has tried to seize it by force of arms and committed war crimes against their citizens. Be aware that Putin poodle Lukashenko gave a sort-of press conference. Behind him was a map showing how Russia would advance to achieve Putin's aims. These included overrunning Moldova - another sovereign nation. If it did it would border Romania in the south and Poland, Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania in the north - all NATO countries. Which is why Sweden and Finland want NATO membership. It's very obvious that Ukraine and Moldova were the only countries he could invade without being creamed by NATO... 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
P.K. Posted October 4, 2022 Share Posted October 4, 2022 Squeaky Bottom Time. Best stock up on the Factor 50.... Telling it like it is. Petraeus: US would destroy Russia’s troops if Putin uses nuclear weapons in Ukraine Former CIA director and retired army general says Moscow’s leader is ‘desperate’ and ‘battlefield reality he faces is irreversible’ The US and its allies would destroy Russia’s troops and equipment in Ukraine – as well as sink its Black Sea fleet – if the Russian president, Vladimir Putin, uses nuclear weapons in the country, former CIA director and retired four-star army general David Petraeus warned on Sunday. Petraeus acknowledged that in the event of a Russian nuclear strike the likelihood that radiation would extend to Nato countries under the Article 5* umbrella could perhaps be construed as an attack on a Nato member. “Perhaps you can make that case,” he said. “The other case is that this is so horrific that there has to be a response – it cannot go unanswered.” Yet, Petraeus added, “You don’t want to get into a nuclear escalation here. But you have to show that this cannot be accepted in any way.” Nonetheless, with pressure mounting on Putin after Ukrainian gains in the east of the country under last week’s annexation declaration and resistance to mobilization efforts within Russia mounting, Petraeus said Moscow’s leader was “desperate”. “The battlefield reality he faces is, I think, irreversible,” he said. “No amount of shambolic mobilization, which is the only way to describe it; no amount of annexation; no amount of even veiled nuclear threats can actually get him out of this particular situation. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/oct/02/us-russia-putin-ukraine-war-david-petraeus *All for one and one for all! Errr I think that's from a book by Dumas. You get the idea mind... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Phantom Posted October 4, 2022 Share Posted October 4, 2022 24 minutes ago, P.K. said: Squeaky Bottom Time. Best stock up on the Factor 50.... Telling it like it is. Petraeus: US would destroy Russia’s troops if Putin uses nuclear weapons in Ukraine Former CIA director and retired army general says Moscow’s leader is ‘desperate’ and ‘battlefield reality he faces is irreversible’ The US and its allies would destroy Russia’s troops and equipment in Ukraine – as well as sink its Black Sea fleet – if the Russian president, Vladimir Putin, uses nuclear weapons in the country, former CIA director and retired four-star army general David Petraeus warned on Sunday. Petraeus acknowledged that in the event of a Russian nuclear strike the likelihood that radiation would extend to Nato countries under the Article 5* umbrella could perhaps be construed as an attack on a Nato member. “Perhaps you can make that case,” he said. “The other case is that this is so horrific that there has to be a response – it cannot go unanswered.” Yet, Petraeus added, “You don’t want to get into a nuclear escalation here. But you have to show that this cannot be accepted in any way.” Nonetheless, with pressure mounting on Putin after Ukrainian gains in the east of the country under last week’s annexation declaration and resistance to mobilization efforts within Russia mounting, Petraeus said Moscow’s leader was “desperate”. “The battlefield reality he faces is, I think, irreversible,” he said. “No amount of shambolic mobilization, which is the only way to describe it; no amount of annexation; no amount of even veiled nuclear threats can actually get him out of this particular situation. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/oct/02/us-russia-putin-ukraine-war-david-petraeus *All for one and one for all! Errr I think that's from a book by Dumas. You get the idea mind... Petraeus has specifically responded noting that if Russia uses tactical nukes, then the US will destroy them with conventional weapons. No nuclear escalation, which I think is a smart move. Even the use of a tactical nuke would probably have some fallout in a NATO country which would likely be construed as an attack. Very few Russian troops (remaining) will have been trained to fight in an irradiated land and based on the success of their equipment and training thus far, it's likely he would just kill more of his own troops (not that he cares, but those at home might). Some big movements for Ukraine over the last couple of days. In the South it looks like they are going to surround the Orcs by running down the Dneiper river, North of Kherson. 25,000 Orcs there apparently. Ukraine will have some logistical issues storing that many POWs if successful. In the North it looks like the momentum is still running. The Orcs have fallen back 25km from Lyman and there are no natural defensive positions between there and Lysychansk and Sverodonetsk. Not that it seems to matter now, even with natural and man-made defensive positions they've been able to fortify for weeks, they've not be able to hold. Anyone see any of the rusty AKs that are being handed out to the mobilized 'troops' now? One report I saw last night was showing a pack list being provided to the conscripts, advised to literally buy and bring all equipment (first aid, camping equipment camos, even helmets and body armour) bar guns, which appear to have been stored in a muddy puddle. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Phantom Posted October 4, 2022 Share Posted October 4, 2022 And to the watery war. A new Corvette was launched by a Turkish Shipyard for the Ukrainians yesterday. Ukraine had the majority of it's navy seized when Russia invaded Crimea. Although Putin still managed to loose his Flagship the Moskova, in a landwar, with a country without a Navy 😆 There were some photos last week of what appeared to be a drone ship (about the size of a big kayak) washed up near Sevastapol. Looked like it had detonators on the front. The Orcs have now barricaded the entrance to Sevastopol with floating booms. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Power Posted October 5, 2022 Share Posted October 5, 2022 Here is a bit of sense .. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Phantom Posted October 5, 2022 Share Posted October 5, 2022 44 minutes ago, Max Power said: Here is a bit of sense .. I bought some shares in a couple of defence companies at the start of the conflict. I did actually have a bit of a moral chat with myself about it, but decided I was happy potentially profiting from the sale of Anti-Orc weaponry. They've gone up by 5 -10% which is obviously not awful. But not exactly a get rich quick scheme. He's got a point though. We will likely extinct ourselves. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
P.K. Posted October 7, 2022 Share Posted October 7, 2022 The ultimate "shoot 'n scoot" that Sweden is considering sending to Ukraine. Made by BAE Systems. https://youtu.be/d8x8ITwd4Vg The package includes 150,000+ rounds of ammunition for it. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Passing Time Posted October 7, 2022 Share Posted October 7, 2022 1 hour ago, P.K. said: The ultimate "shoot 'n scoot" that Sweden is considering sending to Ukraine. Made by BAE Systems. https://youtu.be/d8x8ITwd4Vg The package includes 150,000+ rounds of ammunition for it. Awesome bit of kit Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
manxfisherman Posted October 8, 2022 Share Posted October 8, 2022 This is fairly big https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russias-ria-state-agency-reports-fuel-tank-fire-kerch-bridge-crimea-2022-10-08/ 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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