Russia

[manxman1980]

4 hours ago, Apple said:

Biden says not fired from. Russia...probably. Who else could be in the frame ?

Could be Belarus or as has been said a misfire from Ukrainian forces.

NATO won't want to jump in just yet so expect a lot of diplomacy and an investigation. 

[quilp]

It now seems it was a Russian-built Ukrainian AA missile which went astray. That's what I've just spotted on a couple of news-sites anyway, including the BBC so it must be valid. 

[Apple]

I wonder how Nato might react if Zelensky hinted he thinks the population has had enough and further warfare is no longer sustainable ?

 

[quilp]

Do the Ukrainians have the resolve? Currently following a channel run by a Ukrainian bloke, in English, who posts-up intercepted phone calls between Russian soldiers and their loved ones. Their stories can be harrowing; no medical supplies/personnel/MASH units, poor personal weaponry, lack of ammunition and basic rations, lack of suitable uniforms, drunk commanders sending out conscripts on obvious suicide missions, mutineers, deserters, murderers killing women and children with grenades and machine-guns. You get the picture. Most of them don't wanna be there let alone die for Putin, blyat. It's not a lack of morale because there just isn't any to begin with.

I'll post a link or two...

Hundreds haven't been paid, winter looms without any preparation. It put paid to WW2 Germany's plans.

 

Edited November 17, 2022 by quilp

[The Phantom]

1 hour ago, quilp said:

Do the Ukrainians have the resolve? Currently following a channel run by a Ukrainian bloke, in English, who posts-up intercepted phone calls between Russian soldiers and their loved ones. Their stories can be harrowing; no medical supplies/personnel/MASH units, poor personal weaponry, lack of ammunition and basic rations, lack of suitable uniforms, drunk commanders sending out conscripts on obvious suicide missions, mutineers, deserters, murderers killing women and children with grenades and machine-guns. You get the picture. Most of them don't wanna be there let alone die for Putin, blyat. It's not a lack of morale because there just isn't any to begin with.

I'll post a link or two...

Hundreds haven't been paid, winter looms without any preparation. It put paid to WW2 Germany's plans.

 

As long as they have weapons the Ukrainians have the resolve to see this through. 

Power and heat will create some misery but I don't believe it will break the civilian population.

[The Phantom]

I think Ukraine will retake the South and Donetsk.

Crimea is 50:50

They'll probably relinquish Luhansk.

[P.K.]

The Russians have retreated across the Dnieper river before the bridges were dropped by Ukraine in an attempt to trap them on the West bank. Now they have secured their supply lines.

Both sides are still vulnerable to stonks by the other across the river. However Russia is probably running out of smart munitions hence their xmas shopping in Iran. So Iranian drone swarms attacking deep into Ukraine are becoming the norm as Russia takes advantage of the NATO insistance that Ukraine can't strike into Russia.

What next for Ukraine? The Finns stuck it to the Russians by fighting, very successfully, through the winter. North of Kherson is a lot of open Russian occupied territory. Ukraine has the initiative right now and will not want to lose it.

[Passing Time]

51 minutes ago, P.K. said:

The Russians have retreated across the Dnieper river before the bridges were dropped by Ukraine in an attempt to trap them on the West bank. Now they have secured their supply lines.

Both sides are still vulnerable to stonks by the other across the river. However Russia is probably running out of smart munitions hence their xmas shopping in Iran. So Iranian drone swarms attacking deep into Ukraine are becoming the norm as Russia takes advantage of the NATO insistance that Ukraine can't strike into Russia.

What next for Ukraine? The Finns stuck it to the Russians by fighting, very successfully, through the winter. North of Kherson is a lot of open Russian occupied territory. Ukraine has the initiative right now and will not want to lose it.

You'd think Russian infrastructure would be fair game to the Ukrainians given the pounding they are getting from Russia

[P.K.]

31 minutes ago, Passing Time said:

You'd think Russian infrastructure would be fair game to the Ukrainians given the pounding they are getting from Russia

If NATO unshackle (for want of a better word) Ukraine's ability to strike into Russia, assuming they have the capability, then that might prove to be an escalation too far.

The Red Army has been shown to be deficient in just about every department and they are clearly losing ground in Ukraine. So further provoking a nuclear power which is already on the back foot and starting to appear desperate for a way out would be a really really stupid thing to do...

Edited November 17, 2022 by P.K.
Typo

[The Phantom]

1 hour ago, P.K. said:

The Russians have retreated across the Dnieper river before the bridges were dropped by Ukraine in an attempt to trap them on the West bank. Now they have secured their supply lines.

Both sides are still vulnerable to stonks by the other across the river. However Russia is probably running out of smart munitions hence their xmas shopping in Iran. So Iranian drone swarms attacking deep into Ukraine are becoming the norm as Russia takes advantage of the NATO insistance that Ukraine can't strike into Russia.

What next for Ukraine? The Finns stuck it to the Russians by fighting, very successfully, through the winter. North of Kherson is a lot of open Russian occupied territory. Ukraine has the initiative right now and will not want to lose it.

West side of the Dnieper/Kherson is higher than the East side, which is also quite swampy with little cover.  Whoever holds the west side will have an advantage when it comes to lobbing artillery. 

Ukraine is already striking in Russia, they're just not admitting it.  In addition to numerous oil depots and factories spontaneously combusting in Russia, there have also been more blatant attacks such as the Hinds hitting Belgorod and the last few weeks there is a video of Ukrainian SFs blowing up helicopters on an airbase in deep Russia. 

The Ukrainians have also already undertaken some amphibious recon/probing across the Dnieper. 

[Passing Time]

46 minutes ago, P.K. said:

If NATO unshackle (for want of a better word) Ukraine's ability to strike into Russia, assuming they have the capability, then that might prove to be an escalation too far.

The Red Army has been shown to be deficient in just about every department and they are clearly losing ground in Ukraine. So further provoking a nuclear power which is already on the back foot and starting to appear desperate for a way out would be a really really stupid thing to do...

I'd suggest the escalation too far bit has sailed. The moment that madman targeted civilians - that was the escalation too far

[The Phantom]

Although, if those sham referendums were to be accepted, then surely any of the occupied territories Ukraine attacks/reclaims are part of Russia? 'Forever' if I quote Poo-tin at a rally following the results. So what would be the difference if they overtly attacked mother Russia?

The main difference I suppose would be the the Russians could almost justify the use of nukes if their doctrine dictates they can use them if the motherland is attacked directly. 

[Apple]

2 hours ago, The Phantom said:

Ukraine is already striking in Russia, they're just not admitting it.  In addition to numerous oil depots and factories spontaneously combusting in Russia, there have also been more blatant attacks such as the Hinds hitting Belgorod and the last few weeks there is a video of Ukrainian SFs blowing up helicopters on an airbase in deep Russia. 

 

51 minutes ago, The Phantom said:

So what would be the difference if they overtly attacked mother Russia?

The main difference I suppose would be the the Russians could almost justify the use of nukes if their doctrine dictates they can use them if the motherland is attacked directly. 

Ukraine can only push Russia so far now and with the economic sanctions Russia must be feeling it has its back to a wall nearly. (how long will China be able to bail them out). If any Nato country started to feel nervous and wants to have nuclear systems deployed in their country that might just be enough to trigger more desperate action by Russia.

The graves unearthed to day and the reports of the signs of torture of civilians is similar now to what the Allies knew about what was happening in concentration camps during the last war. Someone is going to blink first. The question is who.

[The Phantom]

On 11/17/2022 at 3:05 PM, Passing Time said:

You'd think Russian infrastructure would be fair game to the Ukrainians given the pounding they are getting from Russia

A gas terminal near St Petersberg and a Russian black sea port (SW of Crimea) both had carelessly discarded cigarette incidents yesterday. 

[offshoremanxman]

With Rishi’s visit to Ukraine today it’s clear that the whole success of Brexit is being pinned on us getting war concessions and reparations (and contracts) from Ukraine to help them rebuild it after the invasion.