The Phantom Posted January 10, 2023 Share Posted January 10, 2023 5 hours ago, P.K. said: I very much doubt that any NATO country would act alone on this. It's possible that Putin was going to cut supplies off anyway. As a pariah nation the chances of any European customers coming back to the fold after the naked aggression in Ukraine is almost certainly zero. So Moscow blew their own pipeline up so Gazprom wouldn't have to pay compensation for failing to supply. However if that happened surely it would be in the public domain by now? Curious... @La_Dolce_Vita Indeed. I'm still none the wiser who is responsible. Many factions with much to lose (or win or just to spite). You've got to admit it was brilliantly executed though. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
P.K. Posted January 10, 2023 Share Posted January 10, 2023 28 minutes ago, The Phantom said: @La_Dolce_Vita Indeed. I'm still none the wiser who is responsible. Many factions with much to lose (or win or just to spite). You've got to admit it was brilliantly executed though. Basically a kilometer of pipe destroyed. Apparently the internal polymer lining degrades in salt water so it's possible that the entire network is knackered. Not that anyone in Europe will be buying Russian gas anytime soon... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
La_Dolce_Vita Posted January 10, 2023 Share Posted January 10, 2023 8 hours ago, P.K. said: I very much doubt that any NATO country would act alone on this. It's possible that Putin was going to cut supplies off anyway. As a pariah nation the chances of any European customers coming back to the fold after the naked aggression in Ukraine is almost certainly zero. So Moscow blew their own pipeline up so Gazprom wouldn't have to pay compensation for failing to supply. However if that happened surely it would be in the public domain by now? Curious... I'm only going off who has the most to gain and the benefit to the US is greatest. The problem of the supply from Russia becomes fait accompli. It forces Europe to look elsewhere. And the US doesn't have to deal with complaints from European countries about meddling over European supplies by using sanctions. If the the matter of compensation was a concern and would motivate Russia to damage the pipeline then it still seems to run opposite to the country's economic interests. It's one thing to reduce supply or even cut off supply temporarily for political leverage but to lose control of that leverage and all income completely only harms Russia most. And though I'd agree that the extent of such dependence on russian supply would not be seen again in the near future, i don't think it is possible to say whether Russia would ordinarily be a significant supplier in the future. Politics can change quickly. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
La_Dolce_Vita Posted January 10, 2023 Share Posted January 10, 2023 2 hours ago, The Phantom said: @La_Dolce_Vita Indeed. I'm still none the wiser who is responsible. Many factions with much to lose (or win or just to spite). You've got to admit it was brilliantly executed though. Is it difficult to accomplish? I doubt we will ever know what happened though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John Wright Posted January 10, 2023 Share Posted January 10, 2023 12 minutes ago, La_Dolce_Vita said: I'm only going off who has the most to gain and the benefit to the US is greatest. The problem of the supply from Russia becomes fait accompli. It forces Europe to look elsewhere. And the US doesn't have to deal with complaints from European countries about meddling over European supplies by using sanctions. If the the matter of compensation was a concern and would motivate Russia to damage the pipeline then it still seems to run opposite to the country's economic interests. It's one thing to reduce supply or even cut off supply temporarily for political leverage but to lose control of that leverage and all income completely only harms Russia most. And though I'd agree that the extent of such dependence on russian supply would not be seen again in the near future, i don't think it is possible to say whether Russia would ordinarily be a significant supplier in the future. Politics can change quickly. Except Nordstream was additional capacity. There are land based pipelines, pipelines under the Black Sea to Turkey & Bulgaria and then into Central/North Europe distribution from there. With the price having gone through the roof Russia is making far more from selling far less. Ironically several pass through Ukraine. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Non-Believer Posted January 11, 2023 Share Posted January 11, 2023 8 hours ago, The Phantom said: @La_Dolce_Vita Indeed. I'm still none the wiser who is responsible. Many factions with much to lose (or win or just to spite). You've got to admit it was brilliantly executed though. There was a news report a few weeks ago that stated categorically that the damaged section had been destroyed by an explosives-induced event and that residue from those explosives had been recovered. If it is true then presumably that residue can be analysed for its type and probable source though nothing has been forthcoming yet in the news in that respect as far as I know? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
quilp Posted January 11, 2023 Share Posted January 11, 2023 8 minutes ago, Non-Believer said: There was a news report a few weeks ago that stated categorically that the damaged section had been destroyed by an explosives-induced event and that residue from those explosives had been recovered. If it is true then presumably that residue can be analysed for its type and probable source though nothing has been forthcoming yet in the news in that respect as far as I know? Jens Stoltenberg still adamant that it was an act of terrorism bit doesn't reveal who... https://carnegieendowment.org/politika/88062#:~:text=Nord Stream 2%2C however%2C was,before Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Brief history here. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
P.K. Posted January 11, 2023 Share Posted January 11, 2023 7 hours ago, quilp said: Jens Stoltenberg still adamant that it was an act of terrorism bit doesn't reveal who... https://carnegieendowment.org/politika/88062#:~:text=Nord Stream 2%2C however%2C was,before Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Brief history here. Acts of terrorism are invariably followed by those responsible crowing about it. The explosives will almost certainly be military grade whatever indicating the involvement of a state. But which one? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Phantom Posted January 11, 2023 Share Posted January 11, 2023 14 hours ago, La_Dolce_Vita said: I'm only going off who has the most to gain and the benefit to the US is greatest. The problem of the supply from Russia becomes fait accompli. It forces Europe to look elsewhere. And the US doesn't have to deal with complaints from European countries about meddling over European supplies by using sanctions. The leaks occurred one day after Poland and Norway opened the alternative Baltic Pipe running through Denmark, so not just the US. 14 hours ago, La_Dolce_Vita said: Is it difficult to accomplish? I doubt we will ever know what happened though. I'm no expert on demolitions or marine warfare, but the actual explosive devices probably wouldn't have to be that complex or massive. It's just a pipe, not really armoured or protected. The depth of the pipes in the Baltic are around 100m which is just about the limit for divers (military stuff that requires blowing up generally isn't very deep), so either they took some pretty big risks or had some very specialized equipment/individuals or used UAVs. The really curious bit however is that they did it 4 times in 4 seperate areas in a very busy shipping area in the Baltic and weren't spotted. Of course there is the possibility that the devices could have been placed weeks or months before and detonated remotely or via a timer. 9 hours ago, Non-Believer said: If it is true then presumably that residue can be analysed for its type and probable source though nothing has been forthcoming yet in the news in that respect as far as I know? I'd say that would be tricky. They can probably determine from the residue what type of exploses were used, but where these came from or where they were manufactured would likely stay a mystery. Bear in mind they've already blown up and been sat on the bottom of the sea for however long degrading. Even if they could identify it, think about the amount of explosives currently floating around in Ukraine, supplied by all manner of countries and firms. Plus any operators wouldn't use an explosive that could easily traced to them through manufacture, that would be a school boy error. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
P.K. Posted January 11, 2023 Share Posted January 11, 2023 Seismology indicated that the explosions were equivalent to 100kg of TNT. That's a big bang! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Phantom Posted January 11, 2023 Share Posted January 11, 2023 (edited) 5 hours ago, P.K. said: Seismology indicated that the explosions were equivalent to 100kg of TNT. That's a big bang! Yeah it would be a big bang for sure. Although 100kg of TNT equivalent wouldn't be that much to transport and place. Size of a large suitcase perhaps. If by example it was C4 used, this is about 60% of TNT equivalent, so you'd only need 60kg to make a 100kg TNT blast. Edited January 11, 2023 by The Phantom Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Phantom Posted January 13, 2023 Share Posted January 13, 2023 The Russian miltiary spokesman announced yesterday that they had destroyed 4 Bradley Fighting Vehicles. The US haven't even sent the Bradleys yet, they only announced it as part of a package last week! 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Passing Time Posted January 13, 2023 Share Posted January 13, 2023 4 hours ago, The Phantom said: The Russian miltiary spokesman announced yesterday that they had destroyed 4 Bradley Fighting Vehicles. The US haven't even sent the Bradleys yet, they only announced it as part of a package last week! They're damn good those Russians 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
P.K. Posted January 14, 2023 Share Posted January 14, 2023 So has Soledar fallen? According to Moscow they finally have a victory after months of reverses. According to Kyiv Ukrainians are still holding out and an attempt to surround and cut off their forces has failed. The fog of war: ‘Hellish’ battle for Soledar symbolises state of Russia’s war in Ukraine Fall of salt mining town would be propaganda coup for Kremlin but analysts say scale of casualties make it a pyrrhic victory. The then and now pictures in the piece show what artillery can do. Especially these days where they can drop a shell in a dustbin from 25 miles away. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/jan/13/hellish-battle-soledar-symbolises-russia-war-ukraine Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Freggyragh Posted January 14, 2023 Share Posted January 14, 2023 Worth remembering that Soledar had a pre-war population only slightly larger than Ramsey. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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