Russia

[The Phantom]

3 hours ago, Roxanne said:

I don’t buy any of this. The Kremlin is protected more than anywhere. This is just another excuse to justify more attacks on Ukraine. And that picture? Perfectly taken? My ass. 

There appears to be a couple of chaps climbing up a gantry on the left of the dome in the video too. 

Maintenance in the middle of the night?  By complete coincidence they appear to be close enough to put out any fire, but far enough away to not have their eyebrows singed by the firework. 

[Roxanne]

Trouble at the Russian Mill.

Wagner threatens to pull out.

From the BBC

Quote

 

The leader of Russia's Wagner Group has threatened to withdraw his troops from the Ukrainian city of Bakhmut by Wednesday, in a row over ammunition.

His statement came after he posted a video on social media of him walking among dead fighters' bodies, asking defence officials for more supplies.

Russia has been trying to capture the city for months, despite its questionable strategic value.

Yevgeny Prigozhin pinned the decision squarely on the defence ministry.

"Shoigu! Gerasimov! Where is the... ammunition?... They came here as volunteers and die for you to fatten yourselves in your mahogany offices."

Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu and Chief of the General Staff Valery Gerasimov have often been the focus for Prigozhin's anger. 

Prigozhin is a publicity seeker, and his influence has seemingly waned in recent months. He has previously made threats he has not followed through with - subsequently dismissing them as jokes and military humour. 

Only last week he told a Russian pro-war blogger that Wagner fighters in Bakhmut were down to their last days of supplies of bullets, and needed thousands of rounds of ammunition. 

If shortages were not tackled then his mercenaries would be forced either to retreat or remain and die, he warned: "Then, no matter what our bureaucrats want, everything else will crumble."

 

 

[The Phantom]

3 hours ago, Roxanne said:

Trouble at the Russian Mill.

Wagner threatens to pull out.

From the BBC

 

He's been shooting his mouth of for a few months now.  I'm genuinely amazed he hasn't fallen out of a window. 

Word on the Bakhmut street is that it's got a lot quieter there in the last week or so.  Unsure if this is due to the Wagner ammo issues, general poor Orc morale, or everyone is just biding their time/digging-in ready for the big counter offensive. 

[Roxanne]

19 minutes ago, The Phantom said:

Unsure if this is due to the Wagner ammo issues, general poor Orc morale, or everyone is just biding their time/digging-in ready for the big counter offensive. 

It could also be because many of them are dead.

Not sure how many windows are left in Bakhmut but if there any any then I guess he will be falling out of one sooner than later.

It’s not going very well for them is it, and Zelenskyy hasn’t even started yet. Whatever he does, it’s going to be a surprise. Of that we can depend. It could signal the end of it - or - the start of something even more hellish that the allies can’t ignore.  

[The Phantom]

1 hour ago, Roxanne said:

It could also be because many of them are dead.

Not sure how many windows are left in Bakhmut but if there any any then I guess he will be falling out of one sooner than later.

It’s not going very well for them is it, and Zelenskyy hasn’t even started yet. Whatever he does, it’s going to be a surprise. Of that we can depend. It could signal the end of it - or - the start of something even more hellish that the allies can’t ignore.  

He's threatened to pull out the day before Russian WW2 'Victory Parades' are planned in Moscow. Will be interesting to see if it actually takes place because there might be very little military hardware to perambulate around Red Square and the threat of Ukrainian Drones. It wouldn't suprise me if there is even a shortage of trained soldiers to march past the rostrum.  I'm sure they'll dig out some antique tanks or mock ups of their alleged world leading military technology and press gang some brainwashed teens to strut about. 

Prigozhin states that he cannot continue without adequate supplies of ammunition. This is probably true but in the past ten months Wagner has had the first claim on everything under the promise of taking Donbas. After all this time, with all those supplies, with the best equipped men, with access to criminals to bulk out their numbers and many other advantages over regular Russian soldiers they couldn't even take little Bakhmut. Prigozhin's abilities couldn't match his ambitions.  

Wagner forces have been summarily defeated in Bakhmut. They have failed to defeat Ukraine's army. They have run out of men, ideas and ammunition. These 'Wagner tough guys' proved themselves against unarmed old men, women and children in Bucha, but when they came up against a well trained, well led, motivated professional army they were revealed as nothing more thugs with guns. Most of them are now fertilising this year's Sunflowers in Donbas.

The counter-offensive is certainly going to be awe inspiring which ever way it goes.  They're has been a noticeable blackout of news for a couple of weeks now and I'm amazed they've managed to keep Opsec this long.  I think with the concentration of Ukrainian forces around Bakhmut in it's defence, there will probably be some (diversionary) attacks in the North, but the main thrust will be to the South to cut off Crimea then literally starve the Orcs out.  If they don't make big gains quite quickly and show significant ongoing momentum, I suspect they are going to be told by the West they're going to have to relinquish what Russia still holds. 

 

[Roxanne]

3 hours ago, The Phantom said:

He's threatened to pull out the day before Russian WW2 'Victory Parades' are planned in Moscow. Will be interesting to see if it actually takes place because there might be very little military hardware to perambulate around Red Square and the threat of Ukrainian Drones. It wouldn't suprise me if there is even a shortage of trained soldiers to march past the rostrum.  I'm sure they'll dig out some antique tanks or mock ups of their alleged world leading military technology and press gang some brainwashed teens to strut about. 

Prigozhin states that he cannot continue without adequate supplies of ammunition. This is probably true but in the past ten months Wagner has had the first claim on everything under the promise of taking Donbas. After all this time, with all those supplies, with the best equipped men, with access to criminals to bulk out their numbers and many other advantages over regular Russian soldiers they couldn't even take little Bakhmut. Prigozhin's abilities couldn't match his ambitions.  

Wagner forces have been summarily defeated in Bakhmut. They have failed to defeat Ukraine's army. They have run out of men, ideas and ammunition. These 'Wagner tough guys' proved themselves against unarmed old men, women and children in Bucha, but when they came up against a well trained, well led, motivated professional army they were revealed as nothing more thugs with guns. Most of them are now fertilising this year's Sunflowers in Donbas.

The counter-offensive is certainly going to be awe inspiring which ever way it goes.  They're has been a noticeable blackout of news for a couple of weeks now and I'm amazed they've managed to keep Opsec this long.  I think with the concentration of Ukrainian forces around Bakhmut in it's defence, there will probably be some (diversionary) attacks in the North, but the main thrust will be to the South to cut off Crimea then literally starve the Orcs out.  If they don't make big gains quite quickly and show significant ongoing momentum, I suspect they are going to be told by the West they're going to have to relinquish what Russia still holds. 

 

I think there will only one parade this year, the one in Red Square. He may say he's cancelling them for security but it's more likely that the real reason is that he's going to be shown up in front of his people.You're so right about digging out the old war machinery, probably take some more prisoners out of prison too to march. He's dangerous and the more desperate he become the more desperate he becomes. My fear is that should this conflict still be going on in 2024 and by some weird finger of fickle fate the Rebuplicans get in with Trump at the helm - at that point anything could happen. I have a feeling his own people will have turned on him by that point. Not the old people who worship him but the people who are around him every day,

I've just seen that video by Yevgeny Prigozhin. He's absolutely fucking raging. Luckily we couldn't see the bodies but the sentiment was there for sure. He's DEFFO going out a window somewhere.

I think the whole world is waiting for the spring offensive. Your projection sounds entirely likely. Not sure Zelenskyy will ever give up the land tho, not even to appease the west. No-one seems to know their their plan. Its their best kept secret so far. I'm not surprised Wagner are panicking and making videos about men in mahogany offices. It's war, it's hellish and I abhor it but I'm also drawn in and can't wait to see what surprises are in store. Whatever it is, the Russians aren't going to like it.

Edited May 5, 2023 by Roxanne
to change the date of the election. (doofus)

[The Phantom]

Apparently Spetnaz and Kadyrov's Chechens are now blocking Wagner's exit from Bakhmut and threatening to shoot if they retreat! 

[Roxanne]

30 minutes ago, The Phantom said:

Apparently Spetnaz and Kadyrov's Chechens are now blocking Wagner's exit from Bakhmut and threatening to shoot if they retreat! 

I thought they'd been sent in to replace the Wagner group?

Whatever, this isn't going to be a happy ending, is it.

[The Phantom]

40 minutes ago, Roxanne said:

I thought they'd been sent in to replace the Wagner group?

Whatever, this isn't going to be a happy ending, is it.

Officially to relieve Wagner if they do abandon.  But seems that they might actually be there to block them.

It's a tricky one from a military chain of command point of view.  Wagner have just decided they are going to pull out and given advance notice.  No military unit could make that decision independently, but Wagner aren't officially part of Russia's armed forces.  

Frankly Wagner are finished.  From Putin's point of view, it's a win win.  Force them to fight to the end and get rid of a potentially coup-y force. 

I still can't believe the Chechens though.  A couple of Battalions defected to fight for Ukraine and obviously there are quite a few independents in the Foreign Legions.  But for Kadyrov and his cronies (the majority of their fighters), it's like the Palestinians buddying up with the Israelis for a scrap with Egypt. 

[The Phantom]

On 5/5/2023 at 6:10 PM, Roxanne said:

I think there will only one parade this year, the one in Red Square. He may say he's cancelling them for security but it's more likely that the real reason is that he's going to be shown up in front of his people.You're so right about digging out the old war machinery, probably take some more prisoners out of prison too to march.

Apparently no Airforce fly-bys at all and only one tank (which was from WW2). 🤣

[Numbnuts]

4 hours ago, The Phantom said:

Apparently no Airforce fly-bys at all and only one tank (which was from WW2). 🤣

Thats correct , watched it , one T34 tank and the troops on parade all looked very young….Shortly to be dead and not getting any older. The marching by them was terrible too. Putin has big problems….no tears shed here for him. 

[slinkydevil]

I'm pretty sure we'll have a nuclear 'accident' at Zaporizhzhia soon, to move eyes to something else. Probably when the UKR spring offensive starts as a diversion.

[The Phantom]

51 minutes ago, Numbnuts said:

Thats correct , watched it , one T34 tank and the troops on parade all looked very young….Shortly to be dead and not getting any older. The marching by them was terrible too. Putin has big problems….no tears shed here for him. 

I saw a video this morning someone had put together showing vehicles in previous parades, then flashing over to videos of those same vehicles being destroyed in Ukraine.  It was brilliant.  Here is a column of T90s in Red Square; here is a column of T90s being obliterated by Javelins. 

38 minutes ago, slinkydevil said:

I'm pretty sure we'll have a nuclear 'accident' at Zaporizhzhia soon, to move eyes to something else. Probably when the UKR spring offensive starts as a diversion.

I think you can count on it.  To me Zaporizhzia to Melitopol looks like the prime attack vector. 

Edited May 9, 2023 by The Phantom

[slinkydevil]

On 5/9/2023 at 3:50 PM, Numbnuts said:

Thats correct , watched it , one T34 tank and the troops on parade all looked very young….Shortly to be dead and not getting any older. The marching by them was terrible too. Putin has big problems….no tears shed here for him. 

Whoops.
 

 

[Roxanne]

Belter.