Russia

[P.K.]

On 5/9/2023 at 4:32 PM, The Phantom said:

I think you can count on it.  To me Zaporizhzia to Melitopol looks like the prime attack vector. 

With the length of the front line it could happen anywhere.

During the Cold War the Red Army Sigint was so good they could track NATO elements all over Europe. However times have changed and it's obvious NATO intelligence is far superior to the Russians. In Ukraine real time deployment data coupled with very quick Command and Control systems have caused the Russians a lot of losses in men and material.

So you can be sure that the Ukraine/US efforts have been concentrated on finding a weak spot through which mobile assets can punch through and cause maximum damage to the enemy.

It could be the last Ukrainian offensive though. The assault could be a costly failure. Also the Russian human stockpile is enormous and with a Republican win in the US elections it could force Ukraine to the negotiating table.

Let's hope not...

[The Phantom]

35 minutes ago, P.K. said:

With the length of the front line it could happen anywhere.

During the Cold War the Red Army Sigint was so good they could track NATO elements all over Europe. However times have changed and it's obvious NATO intelligence is far superior to the Russians. In Ukraine real time deployment data coupled with very quick Command and Control systems have caused the Russians a lot of losses in men and material.

So you can be sure that the Ukraine/US efforts have been concentrated on finding a weak spot through which mobile assets can punch through and cause maximum damage to the enemy.

It could be the last Ukrainian offensive though. The assault could be a costly failure. Also the Russian human stockpile is enormous and with a Republican win in the US elections it could force Ukraine to the negotiating table.

Let's hope not...

Whilst I think the Zaporizhzia to Melitopol route is the most favourable, I'm sure the Russians think the same too.  So who knows! 

I'm still amazed with modern social media etc, they've managed to keep it all still pretty quiet.  But releasing enough to have the Russians panicking around like headless chickens. 

I've seen some recent footage of Ukes training on landing craft and I know they've been probing across from Kherson recently, so can only imagine they'll be doing something crossing the Dnipro.  It would seem sensible that they can support any attack south to Melitopol also from the West around Kherson by crossing the river. 

Agreed that this offensive is their last chance before hitting the negotiation table and it will need to be completed before the US elections. 

And now we've got Prigozhin openly calling Putin an asshole! 

UK have just announced we're going to supply the Stormshadow cruise missiles too.  They've got a range of at least 300 miles. 

Edited May 11, 2023 by The Phantom

[Passing Time]

1 hour ago, The Phantom said:

Whilst I think the Zaporizhzia to Melitopol route is the most favourable, I'm sure the Russians think the same too.  So who knows! 

I'm still amazed with modern social media etc, they've managed to keep it all still pretty quiet.  But releasing enough to have the Russians panicking around like headless chickens. 

I've seen some recent footage of Ukes training on landing craft and I know they've been probing across from Kherson recently, so can only imagine they'll be doing something crossing the Dnipro.  It would seem sensible that they can support any attack south to Melitopol also from the West around Kherson by crossing the river. 

Agreed that this offensive is their last chance before hitting the negotiation table and it will need to be completed before the US elections. 

And now we've got Prigozhin openly calling Putin an asshole! 

UK have just announced we're going to supply the Stormshadow cruise missiles too.  They've got a range of at least 300 miles. 

Ukraine border to Moscow roughly 280 miles - perfect

[GD4ELI]

42 minutes ago, Passing Time said:

Ukraine border to Moscow roughly 280 miles - perfect

The agreement is that they will only attack targets on UK sovereign territory.

[P.K.]

51 minutes ago, GD4ELI said:

The agreement is that they will only attack targets on UK sovereign territory.

Chaz 3 is only Lord of Mann so we should be safe then...

 

[P.K.]

Worth a read:

Ukraine has choice of targets as it plots counteroffensive

At critical point in war, Ukraine could press – or appear to press – in multiple locations to try to push Russians back

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/may/12/ukraine-has-choice-of-targets-as-it-plots-counteroffensive

[The Phantom]

The US has publically accused South Africa of supplying ammo to Russia.  Initial accusation were against a black listed Russian vessel that docked around December. 

However, a few weeks ago shortly after the Russian Navy popped into Simonstown (the South African Naval HQ near Cape Town) for some 'training exercises' I was speaking to a few Cape Town locals.  They all knew that something fishy was going on, lots of talk of numerous containers being transferred. 

Their economy is already massively screwed.  The Rand is now collapsing against USD and GBP.  75% of South Africa's investment aid comes from the US and Europe. 

During the de-colonialisation of Africa in the 50s/60s/70s, Russia supported a lot of African freedom fighters, training and educating them in Moscow in Communist ideology.  Many in the ruling parties still cling to this and you'll see it reflected in who is supporting/opposing Russia in various votes by the UN. 

On 5/13/2023 at 11:24 AM, P.K. said:

Worth a read:

Ukraine has choice of targets as it plots counteroffensive

At critical point in war, Ukraine could press – or appear to press – in multiple locations to try to push Russians back

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/may/12/ukraine-has-choice-of-targets-as-it-plots-counteroffensive

It's looking quite promising in Bakhmut for the Ukrainians right now.  They are taking back ground on the flanks of the town that was held by the Russian normal army after being captured by Wagner and it looks like the tables are very much turning there.  Is it part of the much lauded counter offensive though? 

Edited May 15, 2023 by The Phantom

[woolley]

3 hours ago, The Phantom said:

The US has publically accused South Africa of supplying ammo to Russia.  Initial accusation were against a black listed Russian vessel that docked around December. 

However, a few weeks ago shortly after the Russian Navy popped into Simonstown (the South African Naval HQ near Cape Town) for some 'training exercises' I was speaking to a few Cape Town locals.  They all knew that something fishy was going on, lots of talk of numerous containers being transferred. 

Their economy is already massively screwed.  The Rand is now collapsing against USD and GBP.  75% of South Africa's investment aid comes from the US and Europe.

No doubt China will gleefully take up the slack with all of the foreign exchange earned from the crap they sell us and everyone else.

[The Phantom]

8 minutes ago, woolley said:

No doubt China will gleefully take up the slack with all of the foreign exchange earned from the crap they sell us and everyone else.

I'm sure they will try.  China has limited exposure currently in South Africa compared to the rest of the continent.  The difference is that SA (was almost) a 'developed' country has a generally well educated and business savvy population (despite the ANC's best efforts).

It will be interesting to see if any Chinese Railway stations pop up there in the next couple of years.  Or how many surly looking Chinese foremen you'll see at building developments. 

[The Phantom]

On 2/9/2023 at 4:35 PM, The Phantom said:

Certainly they are asking for Typhoons (Eurofighters) but how many of those are going spare is debatable.  Word is they are fairly decent, maybe class them as a 4th+ Generation Fighter.  Not quite up there with the 5th generation F-22 / F-35.

F-16s (like the Thunderbirds) would be a good call though.  They are still excellent jets despite now being quite old and there are loads hanging around.  Seems the Americans have initially poo poo'd that suggestion though.  Probably why they're now asking Britain for Typhoons. 

It's been a long time coming, but apparently the US has decided it won't veto any transfer of F-16s to Ukraine.  Netherlands and Denmark between them have about 50 sat in storage or due to be scrapped in the next couple of years and replaced with F-35s. 

[The Phantom]

I've heard reports of an attack on Belgorod inside Russia.  Not the Ukrainians, anti-Kremlin Russians. 

Of course the Orcs will spin this as the Ukrainians. 

Speaking of spinning, Wagner realistically took Bakhmut with the exception of literally a few streets a couple of weeks ago.  They won't keep it for long though and are being surrounded now themselves. 

 

[P.K.]

I should think the 200 Leopard 1's that were added to the donations have arrived and are being prepped.

Mind you, moving Armour Heavy Battlegroups into position hopefully undetected and setting up the logistics to keep them in the field all takes time...

[The Phantom]

Shhhhhhhh! 

https://news.sky.com/video/ukraine-war-official-video-urges-silence-on-counter-offensive-plans-12896608

Ukraine hacked Crimea's cable network last night and showed this.  

Offensive operations don't begin with a cavalry charge or a huge amphibious landing. They begin with reconnaissance operations, probes, raids, testing ground conditions, weather forecasts, deceptions, bombing raids, sabotage and attacks on communications and logistical supplies.

In the past three weeks we have seen all of the above. There is confusion in the Orc ranks. The anti-Putin Russian Volunteer Force and Russian Freedom Legion have mounted strong raids or fighting patrols across the Russian border into Belgorod Oblast. This forced Russian Generals to move troops and materiel out of the Donbas defences. Orc troops are now shelling Russian towns to halt Russian militias and evacuating Russian towns. For the first time the war is taking place in Russia.

To put a real shine on the story - yesterday regular Russian troops ambushed Wagner troops withdrawing from Bakhmut.  Russian forces are now really fighting among themselves rather than just throwing insults at each other.

The cracks in Russia are widening and the time is approaching for the Ukrainians to drive into those cracks.

In the meantime however, with Russians fighting Russians, it might be a good idea to wait for a few more days and let them carry on.

Never interrupt your enemy when they are making a mistake. 

 

[P.K.]

11 hours ago, The Phantom said:

In the meantime however, with Russians fighting Russians, it might be a good idea to wait for a few more days and let them carry on.

Never interrupt your enemy when they are making a mistake. 

I believe that remark was attributed to Napolean when he saw that Wellington had deployed his forces on a ridge with the Foret de Soignes to his rear making a retreat difficult if not impossible.

That's Waterloo for you...!

[P.K.]

Seems like the opening phase has begun

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/jun/05/ukrainian-troops-launch-attacks-along-donetsk-frontline