Russia

[Zarley]

I have no words to describe how gut-wrenchingly sad this is. 

 

[The Phantom]

21 hours ago, Zarley said:

I have no words to describe how gut-wrenchingly sad this is. 

 

And the Orcs have been shelling the flooded villages as they try to evacuate.  It's time to stop being shocked at the levels of evil the Russians are now stooping to.  

They now realise the (real) world hates them and there is no going back, so nothing is off limits. 

Initially this might seem tactically quite good for the Russians, but realistically the Kherson/Dnipro vector is the least likely for the Ukrainian counterattack.  I think this is just spite. 

[VikingRaider]

3 hours ago, The Phantom said:

I think this is just spite. 

It's also pure stupidity and incompetence if the stories are true about downstream Russians being swept away and materiel abandoned as they didn't evacuate the flooding in time.

[code99]

The West’s core values are liberal democracy and personal freedoms. Putin is waging a brutal war against these values and Ukraine is his chosen field of warfare. Putin and his followers, who perpetuate his crimes, are all war criminals. Shame on anybody who supports him and his murderous regime. Sadly, there are plenty of his supporters living ‘safe and protected’ in the West.

[GD4ELI]

1 hour ago, code99 said:

The West’s core values are liberal democracy and personal freedoms. Putin is waging a brutal war against these values and Ukraine is his chosen field of warfare. Putin and his followers, who perpetuate his crimes, are all war criminals. Shame on anybody who supports him and his murderous regime. Sadly, there are plenty of his supporters living ‘safe and protected’ in the West.

Russia has always wanted the Ukraine since the days of Catherine The Great, just read up on the history of Russian & Soviet treatment of the Ukrainian people. Putin is just continuing this, Nothing to do with political theology.

[code99]

1 hour ago, GD4ELI said:

Russia has always wanted the Ukraine since the days of Catherine The Great, just read up on the history of Russian & Soviet treatment of the Ukrainian people. Putin is just continuing this, Nothing to do with political theology.

Thanks, but I know the history of Russia and Ukraine very well, it is Mr Putin and his supporters who don't. 

[offshoremanxman]

On 6/7/2023 at 10:53 AM, The Phantom said:

Initially this might seem tactically quite good for the Russians, but realistically the Kherson/Dnipro vector is the least likely for the Ukrainian counterattack.  I think this is just spite. 

Unless they’re trying to distract resources from elsewhere by creating a humanitarian crisis. 

[woolley]

We've decided beyond doubt that the Russians blew up the dam then?

To say that Russia is responsible is not the same thing. They are responsible in the sense that if they hadn't invaded Ukraine the dam would still be intact, but there are competing theories as to who perpetrated this act.

[P.K.]

9 hours ago, woolley said:

To say that Russia is responsible is not the same thing. They are responsible in the sense that if they hadn't invaded Ukraine the dam would still be intact, but there are competing theories as to who perpetrated this act.

Hardly.

It's blindingly obvious that breaching the dam makes it impassable in the south for an assault by Ukrainian heavy armour. Plus the Russians have a reputation for utter ruthlessness. You only have to look at their tactics which have resulted in losses of some 180k of their soldiers to realise that.

Bearing in mind that in modern warfare an attacking side needs an advantage of at least 4:1 to prevail this move has completely wrong-footed any Ukrainian assault units in the south which is all the justification the Russians need.

[woolley]

7 hours ago, P.K. said:

Hardly.

It's blindingly obvious that breaching the dam makes it impassable in the south for an assault by Ukrainian heavy armour. Plus the Russians have a reputation for utter ruthlessness. You only have to look at their tactics which have resulted in losses of some 180k of their soldiers to realise that.

Bearing in mind that in modern warfare an attacking side needs an advantage of at least 4:1 to prevail this move has completely wrong-footed any Ukrainian assault units in the south which is all the justification the Russians need.

Nothing is blindingly obvious in a desperate war for survival. You know the oft quoted first casualty of war. There are plausible reasons for either side to have done this. Of course the Russians are ruthless, but don't run away with the notion that the Ukrainians are Guardian subscribing liberals with copies of the Geneva Convention tucked in their kit. When the stakes are high, and they are very high here, all niceties fly out of the window as the reality of human nature bares its claws.

[code99]

22 hours ago, woolley said:

We've decided beyond doubt that the Russians blew up the dam then?

there are competing theories as to who perpetrated this act.

 

4 hours ago, woolley said:

 but don't run away with the notion that the Ukrainians are Guardian subscribing liberals with copies of the Geneva Convention tucked in their kit. When the stakes are high, and they are very high here, all niceties fly out of the window as the reality of human nature bares its claws.

1. The NK dam has been under Russian control for the last year i.e., when the destruction happened, the Russian army controlled the dam, which makes them the most likely culprits. Ukrainians would not destroy the NK dam deliberately – that would be just insane! If Ukrainians were to have done this deliberately, it would be an enormous case of 'cutting off one’s nose to spit one’s face.’ The death and destruction that has resulted from this terrorist act is a tragedy for Ukraine. It makes no sense for them to have harmed themselves in this way.

2. Norwegian seismologists detected two seismic events at that dam early Tuesday morning - they attribute those two seismic events to explosions. In other words, the people who were at the dam, who were controlling the dam, blew it up. Those people could not have been Ukrainians.

3. Even IF Ukrainians did accidently hit the NK dam with their rockets and missiles, it is accepted that Russians have been firing at the rescuers who are trying to evacuate tens of thousands of innocent people fleeing the floods. If this terrorist act is not tantamount to a new kind of war crime, I don’t know what is.

But hey, you are entitled to your opinions, it is just that most of the civilised world does not share your opinion. Presumably, you don't think that Putin and his acolytes are civilised...?   

[woolley]

1 hour ago, code99 said:

 

But hey, you are entitled to your opinions, it is just that most of the civilised world does not share your opinion. Presumably, you don't think that Putin and his acolytes are civilised...?   

Read what I wrote. Yours is exactly the kind of emotive reaction I would expect. I said that the Russians are ruthless, so it is entirely possible, even likely, that they perpetrated this act. I would not however exclude other possibilities, and I don't believe everything I'm told. If the Ukrainian leadership, or anyone else with an interest in giving Russia a richly deserved bloody nose, calculated that the resultant flooding could wash away heavily fortified Russian defensive positions on the Eastern bank of the Dnipro, maybe even start a rout of disarray that would remove them from the country altogether, then it is entirely possible that they would risk it as the lesser of two evils. It's a fight for basic survival after all.

As for the opinion of "the civilised world", what does that mean or matter? Any opinion can be right or wrong. The sensibilities of those holding it are not some sort of verification of reliability.

[code99]

8 hours ago, woolley said:

Read what I wrote. Yours is exactly the kind of emotive reaction I would expect. I said that the Russians are ruthless, so it is entirely possible, even likely, that they perpetrated this act. I would not however exclude other possibilities, and I don't believe everything I'm told. If the Ukrainian leadership, or anyone else with an interest in giving Russia a richly deserved bloody nose, calculated that the resultant flooding could wash away heavily fortified Russian defensive positions on the Eastern bank of the Dnipro, maybe even start a rout of disarray that would remove them from the country altogether, then it is entirely possible that they would risk it as the lesser of two evils. It's a fight for basic survival after all.

As for the opinion of "the civilised world", what does that mean or matter? Any opinion can be right or wrong. The sensibilities of those holding it are not some sort of verification of reliability.

Thank you for recognising that “any opinion can be right or wrong”, in which case you will undoubtedly accept that your opinion, as anybody else’s, could be way off the mark. However: “You are entitled to your opinion. But you are not entitled to your own facts” – only Donald J Trump is entitled to have ‘alternative facts’! Just to be clear – you are not getting your ‘facts’ from the chaps who say that Boris did not mislead the Commons and his resignation is the ‘Remainers Plot’ to reverse Brexit; and Trump is innocent and the US presidential election was stolen ; and Ku-Klux-Klan is a charity organisation for waifs and orphans; and moon landing was filmed at Warner Brothers studio; and Zelensky is a ‘Nazi’; and Covid vaccines are harmful to men’s reproductive organs; and global warming is a hoax; etc, etc.? Your supposition that Russians had "heavily fortified defensive positions" in that general area has not been reported in the Western press. Do you know that to be factually true?

Anyway, given that our government’s foreign policy is to support Ukraine, it seems rather odd that you are so determined to demonise Ukraine and to cheapen Ukrainians into the ranks of thugs who would be prepared to sacrifice lives of their innocent civilians (women, children, elderly) on a futile suicide mission (nonsensical from any military perspective) as described in your post. You also don’t seem to be bothered that Russians are firing at people who are trying to rescue those innocent civilians. In other threads you boasted that you have properties in ‘nice parts of Europe’…that doesn’t include a penthouse in Moscow, does it?... Just kidding. The fortunate thing though is that you are living in a free democratic country where rich business people don’t fall out of the windows if they have opinions that don’t correspond to the government’s official line (or if they are LGBT/atheists/ leaders of the opposition parties, etc). Because as you said yourself: “The sensibilities of those holding it (an opinion) are not some sort of verification of reliability”.

And I am entitled to disagree with your unsubstantiated biased opinions, which are not facts, unlike information supplied by the Norwegian seismologists and Western journalists.

Edited June 10, 2023 by code99
Better wording

[P.K.]

15 hours ago, woolley said:

Nothing is blindingly obvious in a desperate war for survival. You know the oft quoted first casualty of war. There are plausible reasons for either side to have done this. Of course the Russians are ruthless, but don't run away with the notion that the Ukrainians are Guardian subscribing liberals with copies of the Geneva Convention tucked in their kit. When the stakes are high, and they are very high here, all niceties fly out of the window as the reality of human nature bares its claws.

Like "No battle plan survives the first contact with the enemy" your comment is no longer true. Things have moved on. Vietnam was the first "televised" conflict and it made a big difference by informing the public at large what was actually going on and thus swaying their opinions making an enormous difference.

All the available evidence is that the Russians blew the dam. It has so many advantages for them why would they not? The Ukrainians have been very restrained by the restrictions imposed on them by the Western Allies if they want their logistical support and they have pretty much stuck to them. An act like blowing the dam could have had a very adverse effect on the support they are getting so there's no way they would have done it. Especially with the US intelligence assets being aware of pretty much everything that's going on.

Besides which I can't see any Ukrainian advantage in doing so as it's a purely defensive measure. They didn't destroy it while being invaded by Russia and now they're on the offensive it's getting in the way! 

Zelensky has been making a lot of noise recently about re-taking Crimea. Even though it's a strategic cul-de-sac it's probably just designed to further confuse the Russians on where the blows will land. In which case it's been spectacularly successful because it would appear the Russians believed it...

[woolley]

9 hours ago, code99 said:

Thank you for recognising that “any opinion can be right or wrong”, in which case you will undoubtedly accept that your opinion, as anybody else’s, could be way off the mark. However: “You are entitled to your opinion. But you are not entitled to your own facts” – only Donald J Trump is entitled to have ‘alternative facts’! Just to be clear – you are not getting your ‘facts’ from the chaps who say that Boris did not mislead the Commons and his resignation is the ‘Remainers Plot’ to reverse Brexit; and Trump is innocent and the US presidential election was stolen ; and Ku-Klux-Klan is a charity organisation for waifs and orphans; and moon landing was filmed at Warner Brothers studio; and Zelensky is a ‘Nazi’; and Covid vaccines are harmful to men’s reproductive organs; and global warming is a hoax; etc, etc.? Your supposition that Russians had "heavily fortified defensive positions" in that general area has not been reported in the Western press. Do you know that to be factually true?

Anyway, given that our government’s foreign policy is to support Ukraine, it seems rather odd that you are so determined to demonise Ukraine and to cheapen Ukrainians into the ranks of thugs who would be prepared to sacrifice lives of their innocent civilians (women, children, elderly) on a futile suicide mission (nonsensical from any military perspective) as described in your post. You also don’t seem to be bothered that Russians are firing at people who are trying to rescue those innocent civilians. In other threads you boasted that you have properties in ‘nice parts of Europe’…that doesn’t include a penthouse in Moscow, does it?... Just kidding. The fortunate thing though is that you are living in a free democratic country where rich business people don’t fall out of the windows if they have opinions that don’t correspond to the government’s official line (or if they are LGBT/atheists/ leaders of the opposition parties, etc). Because as you said yourself: “The sensibilities of those holding it (an opinion) are not some sort of verification of reliability”.

And I am entitled to disagree with your unsubstantiated biased opinions, which are not facts, unlike information supplied by the Norwegian seismologists and Western journalists.

You're obviously one of those intolerant liberals who cannot discuss matters rationally, and instead launch into a rant if anyone puts forward something not exactly to their liking. You see no colours and no shades, no peripheral fields, only monochrome tunnel vision, and when riled, rather than trying to comprehend and address the complex matter at hand you reel off a list of all the things that have been gnawing away at your ulcer for years, like Trump, Boris, et al, even the KKK and Apollo hoax conspiracy, for goodness sake! I can almost feel the heat emitting from your words. Not much light there though.

I'll say some things again as you seem not to have digested them yet. Russia is responsible because had it not invaded Ukraine the dam would remain intact. That's the bottom line. I also said that the Russians are ruthless, so it is entirely possible, even likely, that they perpetrated this act. I then went on to describe the invaders as richly deserving of a bloody nose. From this you have somehow construed that I support Russia and have demonised Ukraine. Nonsense. You did that all by yourself rather than from anything I have posted.

Now. I haven't boasted of anything. I referred to properties in Europe in the unrelated context of my preference for living in the Isle of Man. As you say, I stated that any opinion can be wrong, ergo, considering the all-embracing definition of the word "any", I accept absolutely that my opinions can be wrong. A fallibility you appear not to extend to your own opinions, incidentally.

However, this is all redundant since I have not broached any opinions whatsoever supporting Russia's illegal invasion of Ukraine or indeed any opinion about the culpability of either side in the destruction of the dam. Neither have I stated any "facts" at all about it, never mind my own "facts". I have merely observed that everyone seems to be taking the reports of Russia being responsible for the dam breach as established fact which at the moment it is not. Most media outlets have been careful to qualify their reports and comments with the FACT that much is as yet unverifiable. Even US Intelligence put out a statement in the aftermath that it was "leaning towards Russia". Hardly the strongest of assertions of support for its ally. This is supposed to be a forum where we can discuss and question. It is not necessary to rant and rave.

When the Russians were pushed out of Kherson back to the opposite side of the river, they took up defensive positions there and this was widely reported by Reuters among others. More recently it has been made known that many have been moved East, but obviously they didn't leave the area entirely. The exact strength and configuration of forces on either side will be highly restricted and misinformation issued to confuse the enemy. We cannot know what the people involved know about the defences south of Kherson city, so I mentioned it as a plausible possibility, not as a "fact", and moreover, I prefixed it with the words "IF the Ukrainian leadership, or anyone else with an interest in giving Russia a richly deserved bloody nose, CALCULATED...." so how could anyone with an attention span superior to a gnat infer that I am asserting it as "fact"? Does everything posted on here have to be fact before the possibility can be introduced?

As for cheapening Ukrainians as thugs, well, as I said this is an existential war. By definition it's dirty on both sides. Russia wants nothing less than Ukraine extinguished as a state and the territory incorporated into its borders. Tens of thousands have died in the struggle to date. Just five people have died as a direct result of the dam breach according to the most recent report I read. Do I think that if the Ukrainians believed blowing up their own dam could help them prosecute this desperate fight for survival, they might see it as the lesser of two evils? One that might save more lives and preserve their statehood for the future? Well, I would say it's a possibility we shouldn't dismiss as ludicrous, and who could blame them? No more than a possibility, mind. And certainly not a "fact".

Edited June 10, 2023 by woolley