Zarley Posted June 15, 2023 Share Posted June 15, 2023 14 hours ago, woolley said: A bit naive to ascribe heinous behaviour specifically to the Russians. It's a human trait that can pop up anywhere in individuals and many states. This will now be interpreted by some as pro-Russian propaganda. Not naive. I'm fully aware that there is cruelty everywhere in the world. However as this thread is specifically discussing the Russian war, I talked about Russian cruelty specifically. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
P.K. Posted June 15, 2023 Share Posted June 15, 2023 10 hours ago, woolley said: Perhaps it's the liberty currently taken for granted in the West that is the aberration? Hardly! "It is better to die on your feet than live on your knees" - Mexican revolutionary Emiliano Zapata. But strangely Russians take a pride in knowing they can suffer. Go figure... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
woolley Posted June 15, 2023 Share Posted June 15, 2023 7 hours ago, P.K. said: Hardly! "It is better to die on your feet than live on your knees" - Mexican revolutionary Emiliano Zapata. But strangely Russians take a pride in knowing they can suffer. Go figure... This is not contrary in any way to my words as quoted by you. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
P.K. Posted June 16, 2023 Share Posted June 16, 2023 18 hours ago, woolley said: This is not contrary in any way to my words as quoted by you. No need to be quite so combative...! I was simply pointing out that history is peppered with folks like Zapata who rose up against subjugation and oppression which indicates to me that democracy is not an aberration. Far from it. However after the overthrow of the tsars Stalin seems to have been set on a monolithic state where oppression became the norm. Between the early 1930s and his death in 1953, Joseph Stalin had more than a million of his own citizens executed. Millions more fell victim to forced labor, deportation, famine, bloody massacres and detention and interrogation by Stalin's henchmen. Seventy years on it seems to me that Stalin's genocides have left a population with nothing but pride in suffering because they have little else. Even Perestroika failed to lift the common clay... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Phantom Posted June 16, 2023 Share Posted June 16, 2023 Some quotes from Putin today. I think this is showing just how dethatched from reality he has become. "As regards demilitarisation, look, Ukraine will soon completely stop using its own hardware," he tells the economic forum in St Petersburg. Kyiv has nothing left, one cannot fight for too long like that. Do you understand?" Putin says. Interesting way to view it. They've stopped using 'their' (mostly Russian) equipment and are now using NATO kit and that is 'de-militarisation'. Compare this to Prigozhin, who is again doing a 'Trump' (someone you despise and mostly speaks crap, but actually occasionally makes a valid point). “If they had say 500 tanks at the beginning of the special operation, now they have 5,000 tanks. If they had 20,000 people who knew how to fight, now 400,000 people know how to fight. How did we demilitarize them? On the contrary, it turns out we f***ing militarized them," 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
woolley Posted June 17, 2023 Share Posted June 17, 2023 Who thinks Ukraine actually has a chance of expelling Russia from their territory? I hope they do, but that's a different thing. Does anyone think that the occupying forces will leave and that there will be a lasting settlement based on the status quo pre-2014? Seems optimistic to me. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
P.K. Posted June 18, 2023 Share Posted June 18, 2023 20 hours ago, woolley said: Who thinks Ukraine actually has a chance of expelling Russia from their territory? I hope they do, but that's a different thing. Does anyone think that the occupying forces will leave and that there will be a lasting settlement based on the status quo pre-2014? Seems optimistic to me. Be aware the expected Ukrainian assault on the Russian lines is yet to materialise. All that's currently happening is probing and recce elements doing their thing. When you add in all the anti-air, artillery, logistics, recovery etc a modern mechanised brigade will consist of over 200 armoured vehicles. It is thought that Ukraine has put together at least 6 brigades and possibly as many as 10. Sure some of them will consist of outdated Russian equipment but others will have modern NATO kit as the tip of the spear. When you see three or four of them crashing into a very narrow area along the front line then you will know that the serious effort to re-take their lost real estate has begun. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
woolley Posted June 18, 2023 Share Posted June 18, 2023 2 hours ago, P.K. said: Be aware the expected Ukrainian assault on the Russian lines is yet to materialise. All that's currently happening is probing and recce elements doing their thing. When you add in all the anti-air, artillery, logistics, recovery etc a modern mechanised brigade will consist of over 200 armoured vehicles. It is thought that Ukraine has put together at least 6 brigades and possibly as many as 10. Sure some of them will consist of outdated Russian equipment but others will have modern NATO kit as the tip of the spear. When you see three or four of them crashing into a very narrow area along the front line then you will know that the serious effort to re-take their lost real estate has begun. Well I certainly hope so. I know the Russians are well dug in, but when they see the fire and fury around them, the plan is that they'll cut and run like they did in the Kharkiv Oblast. That's fine as far as it goes, if it works, but I am thinking more of the longer term. Maybe they can be driven back. Maybe even Ukraine can punch a corridor through to the south all the way to the sea, but what about holding the gains? They are a much more finite force than Russia, and Putin isn't going to say "Yeah, fair enough." and walk away. If it goes badly they will escalate. Even if it goes well there will be a constant state of hostilities and unending border skirmishes So again, does anyone see a positive timeline of events coming out of this mess? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
P.K. Posted June 18, 2023 Share Posted June 18, 2023 As I have pointed out previously the Russian stockpile of cannon fodder is enormous. I doubt that even with their motivated trained soldiers, modern NATO weaponry and US Intel assets the Ukrainian forces will not be able to reach a kill ratio where they can prevail in a war of attrition. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
woolley Posted June 18, 2023 Share Posted June 18, 2023 4 hours ago, P.K. said: As I have pointed out previously the Russian stockpile of cannon fodder is enormous. I doubt that even with their motivated trained soldiers, modern NATO weaponry and US Intel assets the Ukrainian forces will not be able to reach a kill ratio where they can prevail in a war of attrition. Well that seems to be the conventional wisdom for the time being, but I would beware the fog of war here. As you say, the Russian stockpile of cannon fodder is enormous, and I wouldn't underestimate their resourcefulness at replenishing their depleted weaponry. It's not as good as NATO kit, but again it's quantity rather than quality. If Russia is prepared to accept the losses in a war of attrition, they must prevail eventually through sheer weight of numbers. Even if they don't. Let's say Ukraine forces them entirely out of the country. What happens next? You have a mighty, hostile nuclear armed neighbour across the border that wants to put your lights out, best case scenario. What is the way forward? Anybody? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
P.K. Posted June 19, 2023 Share Posted June 19, 2023 (edited) My best way forward is that someone turns Putin into a polo mint... Agree that since WW2 the Russian doctrine has been quantity rather than quality. Saturating an area with Katyusha rocket fire and conventional artillery prior to an assault. However modern target acquisition technology and smart weapons have changed that somewhat. After all, one target round (British Army speak for a direct hit) is worth any number that miss! Plus the prodigious use of ammunition needs either a short conflict or a manufacturing base that can re-supply at the rate of usage. The Russians have neither. I suspect the upcoming Ukrainian assault, in which lots and lots of brave, motivated young people are going to die, will be the last. Especially if the Republicans win the next US election. Which is probably the reason why we haven't seen it yet ie it could be the last throw of the dice and where they end up could be the new borders so they have to get it right. Basically it's shit or bust time. Could it drag on for years? Well, it did from the original incursion in 2014 until they had another go last year so I suppose the answer has to be yes... ETA: Another point to consider is that it's not in Putin's interests to have a settlement. Because that would pave the way for Ukraine membership of NATO. Edited June 19, 2023 by P.K. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
woolley Posted June 19, 2023 Share Posted June 19, 2023 Is turning Putin into a Polo mint something that a serious forward strategy can be based on? Would it even improve the atmosphere? Plenty in Russia believe that Putin is dragging his feet and should go in much harder. If he falls, what replaces him? The succession process in many countries where the leadership has been toppled over the past 30 or 40 years is hardly encouraging. I do get that the injection of high-tech gives the Ukrainians a window for a swift attack, albeit against heavily dug in defensive forces, but at some point that impetus stalls, whether at the border or some other locations within south and east Ukraine, and the Russians can simply sit it out until they regroup and resupply. They are accomplished at waiting games, and they have scale and numbers on their side. I also agree that this is a one off opportunity, and the Ukrainians will know as much and have had it confirmed to them by NATO. "This is it, so make the most of it." And it absolutely isn't in Putin's interest to have a settlement for all the reasons above and, as you say, the prospect of a Ukraine not involved in a border dispute being invited to join NATO. So again, what is the plan? Where are the grounds for optimism of a lasting peace? It would need Russia to accept that Ukraine is no longer in its orbit and is henceforth going to be western leaning. I can't see that happening any time soon. Nobody has the leverage. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Phantom Posted June 20, 2023 Share Posted June 20, 2023 Apparently 20,000 Wagner prisoner soldiers have now completed their 6 month deployment in exchange for freedom and returned home as heroes. Murderers, thieves and rapists all now extra indoctrinated in violence and killing, likely with various levels of PTSD and probably with a bunch of smuggled weapons. It couldn't happen to a nicer country. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
woolley Posted June 20, 2023 Share Posted June 20, 2023 26 minutes ago, The Phantom said: Apparently 20,000 Wagner prisoner soldiers have now completed their 6 month deployment in exchange for freedom and returned home as heroes. Murderers, thieves and rapists all now extra indoctrinated in violence and killing, likely with various levels of PTSD and probably with a bunch of smuggled weapons. It couldn't happen to a nicer country. Which will be visited upon the longsuffering Russian population but not affect the leadership elite one iota. Same with the effects of lots of misguided policy decisions in many places. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shake me up Judy Posted June 20, 2023 Share Posted June 20, 2023 My guess is that the Ukrainians just need to win the big offensive. It's a big if. If they can push the Russians back I can't see Putin surviving long after that, or being able to mobilise the army to go back in again. Remember Afghanistan in the '80s. That could be the real danger point though if he's prepared to go to the next level. If they can't push the Russians back, who knows how long this could go on for... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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