woolley Posted June 20, 2023 Share Posted June 20, 2023 20 minutes ago, Shake me up Judy said: My guess is that the Ukrainians just need to win the big offensive. It's a big if. If they can push the Russians back I can't see Putin surviving long after that, or being able to mobilise the army to go back in again. Remember Afghanistan in the '80s. That could be the real danger point though if he's prepared to go to the next level. If they can't push the Russians back, who knows how long this could go on for... The mindset is: It's not a real country. It's part of Russia. Not only Putin thinks that, and if he falls, what follows? Something better or something worse? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
P.K. Posted June 20, 2023 Share Posted June 20, 2023 On 6/19/2023 at 5:54 PM, woolley said: So again, what is the plan? You keep asking this question. You need to let us know of whose plan you are referring to? Then we could have a go at answering your question... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Passing Time Posted June 20, 2023 Share Posted June 20, 2023 4 hours ago, The Phantom said: Apparently 20,000 Wagner prisoner soldiers have now completed their 6 month deployment in exchange for freedom and returned home as heroes. Murderers, thieves and rapists all now extra indoctrinated in violence and killing, likely with various levels of PTSD and probably with a bunch of smuggled weapons. It couldn't happen to a nicer country. Be perfect if some of said returnees visit Putin and his cronies... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
woolley Posted June 20, 2023 Share Posted June 20, 2023 37 minutes ago, P.K. said: You keep asking this question. You need to let us know of whose plan you are referring to? Then we could have a go at answering your question... I thought the thrust of my posts would explain that. Wherever the Ukrainian offensive stops, whether at the border or before, what happens then? Does it remain a contested border in a state of war for years with people dying and large swathes of territory uninhabitable? I'm interested in what others see as the final outcome. There must be some official NATO ideas that would be withheld for obvious reasons. Or is the current direction just to give Ukraine sufficient hardware with which to fight and degrade Russian capability as a positive aim in itself? Is there a possibility of a partitioned Ukraine, minus Crimea and land east of the Dnipro river? Even then, if Ukraine could be coerced into accepting it, what's to stop Russia agreeing and then returning for another tilt after having had time to recuperate? There has to be an endgame, but it's difficult to see a positive one. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
P.K. Posted June 20, 2023 Share Posted June 20, 2023 Obviously the only current aims at the moment are the Ukrainian ones. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Phantom Posted June 21, 2023 Share Posted June 21, 2023 (edited) 12 hours ago, woolley said: Wherever the Ukrainian offensive stops, whether at the border or before, what happens then? Does it remain a contested border in a state of war for years with people dying and large swathes of territory uninhabitable? I'm interested in what others see as the final outcome. If they get to their own border and fully expel the Russians, I suspect Putin won't stay in power much longer. It would be a messy take-over transition for whoever comes in, but they would probably have too many issues with internal instability to continue with the distraction of the conflict. If they don't make it to the border, then I would imagine it would just end up like it has since 2014 in the Donbas, a bit of stalemate or something approaching the situation of the 'troubles' period in Northern Ireland. But honestly the mindset of the Russians and Putin is pretty hard to comprehend. Who knows what they would do? If the Ukrainians manage to break through anywhere in the South, then anything west of this will likely come under their control in due course also. This potentially includes Crimea. It will be too difficult for the Russians to resupply with no direct access and the Kerch bridge is too easy a target. The areas of the Donbas closest to the Russian border, I feel will remain mostly under Russian control. Ukraine will push them back some, but not all the way and will probably have to cede some territory. Russian resupply just over their border would be too easy. The Ukrainian Counteroffensive has still not really started. As @P.K. notes, they are probing and testing the lines, looking for a weak spot. They still haven't thrown a significant portion of their reserves into the game yet; but as soon as they find a break, it will be a pile on. It's been interesting to see the relative ease of destruction of the Western equipment and quite a lot has already been destroyed/damaged (most of the mineclearing Leopards as far as I can tell). However what appears to be the difference is that crews have a much higher survivability compared to the Russian equipment, I've seen a few videos of the troops in mangled Bradleys, MRAPs and Leopards coming out relatively unscathed (interestingly I've not seen any conflict footage of the Challengers yet). NATO and Ukraine have invested heavily in logistics for maintenance and repair (both within Ukraine and in places like Poland and Germany) and alot of these vehicles will return to the front. My two cents anyway, I think Ukraine will get a significant portion of its land back, but not all and as always SLAVA UKRAINI! Edited June 21, 2023 by The Phantom 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roxanne Posted June 21, 2023 Share Posted June 21, 2023 ‘Zelensky has acknowledged battlefield progress has been "slower than desired",’ according to the BBC. I don’t believe him. I think, that just like the Enormous Crocodile, he has secret plans and clever tricks. I bloody hope so. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Phantom Posted June 21, 2023 Share Posted June 21, 2023 (edited) 2 minutes ago, Roxanne said: ‘Zelensky has acknowledged battlefield progress has been "slower than desired",’ according to the BBC. I don’t believe him. I think, that just like the Enormous Crocodile, he has secret plans and clever tricks. I bloody hope so. Remember, he is a comedian (with balls like planets). We're all waiting for the punchline. Edited June 21, 2023 by The Phantom 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roxanne Posted June 21, 2023 Share Posted June 21, 2023 12 minutes ago, The Phantom said: with balls like planets Please don’t talk about his balls. I have a secret crush on him and it’s gets me going a bit. Thank you. But yes, I get what you are saying and I believe that it’s true. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zarley Posted June 21, 2023 Share Posted June 21, 2023 Go to 4:19 on the video. The same guy who sounded the alarm last year about Russians mining the dam is now saying Russia has also mined all the nuclear reactor cooling systems at the Zaporizhzhya nuclear power plant. Even if they're not crazy enough to blow the place up, their soldiers are rather notorious for "smoking accidents". I guess that would be one way to end the war - or start WWIII.😐😯😣😭 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Phantom Posted June 21, 2023 Share Posted June 21, 2023 2 hours ago, Zarley said: Go to 4:19 on the video. The same guy who sounded the alarm last year about Russians mining the dam is now saying Russia has also mined all the nuclear reactor cooling systems at the Zaporizhzhya nuclear power plant. Even if they're not crazy enough to blow the place up, their soldiers are rather notorious for "smoking accidents". I guess that would be one way to end the war - or start WWIII.😐😯😣😭 Good old Denys. Yep, I would not be suprised in the slightest if the Orcs blew the power plant on purpose. They give absolutely zero fucks. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Passing Time Posted June 22, 2023 Share Posted June 22, 2023 (edited) On 6/21/2023 at 10:20 AM, Roxanne said: Please don’t talk about his balls. I have a secret crush on him and it’s gets me going a bit. Thank you. Edited June 22, 2023 by Passing Time 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Phantom Posted June 23, 2023 Share Posted June 23, 2023 Now that the waters of the blown dam have receded and it's starting to dry up, there has been some talk of this opening up a potential avenue of attack for Ukraine. Russia hasn't really built any significant defensive fortifications in the area, as they always assumed the Ukrainans wouldn't be able to cross the reservoir or river. With any luck, this could backfire massively on the Orcs. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slinkydevil Posted June 23, 2023 Share Posted June 23, 2023 I see Prigozhin is now turning on Putin. Either a coup or they get wiped out. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Phantom Posted June 23, 2023 Share Posted June 23, 2023 (edited) 2 hours ago, slinkydevil said: I see Prigozhin is now turning on Putin. Either a coup or they get wiped out. Was just about to say the exact same thing. He's going full coup! This is going to get interesting. Edited June 23, 2023 by The Phantom 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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