P.K. Posted July 17, 2023 Share Posted July 17, 2023 The whole "Wagner is revolting and moving on Mokba" and then they're not is all very strange. Yesterday I saw a list of all the heavy weaponry that Wagner have had to return to the Russian army. More than a bit odd that a list like that would find it's way into the public domain. Especially as it's become very obvious that Putin is running out of options. However a fast-moving well-trained force could still win it for him by taking Kyiv. Especially if they attacked from, say, nearby Belarus... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Phantom Posted July 17, 2023 Share Posted July 17, 2023 12 hours ago, P.K. said: However a fast-moving well-trained force could still win it for him by taking Kyiv. Especially if they attacked from, say, nearby Belarus... The Ukrainians are ready and waiting for them this time though! This made me smile... https://www.businessinsider.com/ukrainian-air-force-crew-says-women-flash-them-fly-over-2023-7 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roxanne Posted July 17, 2023 Share Posted July 17, 2023 54 minutes ago, The Phantom said: The Ukrainians are ready and waiting for them this time though! This made me smile... https://www.businessinsider.com/ukrainian-air-force-crew-says-women-flash-them-fly-over-2023-7 That’s brilliant! Maybe we (the women) should try that at Ronaldsway and see if we can lift moral and get the flights running on time again. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Phantom Posted July 17, 2023 Share Posted July 17, 2023 6 minutes ago, Roxanne said: That’s brilliant! Maybe we (the women) should try that at Ronaldsway and see if we can lift moral and get the flights running on time again. First flight arrives tomorrow at 9:20, so plenty of time for a lazy dirty chai then head down for the greeting at the end of the runway. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Passing Time Posted July 18, 2023 Share Posted July 18, 2023 15 hours ago, Roxanne said: That’s brilliant! Maybe we (the women) should try that at Ronaldsway and see if we can lift moral and get the flights running on time again. Is that what happened at Bradda Head... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
woolley Posted July 18, 2023 Share Posted July 18, 2023 On 7/17/2023 at 7:51 AM, P.K. said: However a fast-moving well-trained force could still win it for him by taking Kyiv. Especially if they attacked from, say, nearby Belarus... Indeed it could. While Ukrainian forces are bogged down in the east and south. On 7/17/2023 at 8:06 PM, The Phantom said: The Ukrainians are ready and waiting for them this time though! Are they? This counter offensive is stalled. Talk of breaking through to the Sea of Azov and splitting the Russian invasion has gone very quiet lately. There is talk of negotiations and territorial concessions in the air, but it's hard to see that being a long term solution. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
P.K. Posted July 19, 2023 Share Posted July 19, 2023 11 hours ago, woolley said: Are they? This counter offensive is stalled. Talk of breaking through to the Sea of Azov and splitting the Russian invasion has gone very quiet lately. There is talk of negotiations and territorial concessions in the air, but it's hard to see that being a long term solution. It looks to me like business as usual. Probing the Russian lines looking for weak spots and at the same time encircling Bakhmut to create a "hexenkessel" like Falaise. Ideally you want to get your enemy in a position (Bakhmut) where they can essentially be massacred from a position of relative safety. Losing Bakhmut would really hurt the Russian hierarchy and propoganda machine as well... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roxanne Posted July 19, 2023 Share Posted July 19, 2023 Russia has increased the age of enlistment to 70. They must be seriously running out of young meat. Imagine being a couple of months off retirement and discovering yourself in a truck, wearing fatigues en route to Ukraine. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Phantom Posted July 19, 2023 Share Posted July 19, 2023 13 hours ago, woolley said: Indeed it could. While Ukrainian forces are bogged down in the east and south. Are they? This counter offensive is stalled. Talk of breaking through to the Sea of Azov and splitting the Russian invasion has gone very quiet lately. There is talk of negotiations and territorial concessions in the air, but it's hard to see that being a long term solution. Nope, they are definitely waiting for them. To suggest it has stalled, would be to suggest it has got going. It hasn't. As @P.K. notes, they are probing, testing and still haven't deployed a significant amount of their reserve. They do need to get a bit of a move on though before the Autumn comes. Following the daily reports and tactical maps, they are slowly, steadily and undeniably gaining ground almost every day, whilst hitting the Russian supply hubs and command posts. The real risk to the North would be if and when Ukrainian breaks through and deploys their reserves to the East/South. This would then be the time for the artists formerly known as Wagner to have a punt in the North from Belarus. Interesting response from Russia last night following the Kerch attack and them pulling out of the grain deal. Turkey has said they would provide escort across the Black Sea which is a significant embarrassment, so Russia hit Odessa port, where most of the grain is leaving. Considering most of this goes to Africa, and Putin is trying to court them away from the West, it's a curious yet obviously spiteful move. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
woolley Posted July 19, 2023 Share Posted July 19, 2023 16 minutes ago, Roxanne said: Russia has increased the age of enlistment to 70. They must be seriously running out of young meat. Imagine being a couple of months off retirement and discovering yourself in a truck, wearing fatigues en route to Ukraine. And they moan here about the state pension age rising..... If the Russians are suffering losses though, so are the Ukrainians and they are a much smaller country. I think we are getting a very distorted picture from the media. It just strikes me that Russia is always going to be there across the border. It doesn't need to do anything. It can just bide its time throwing in the odd attack until Ukraine is exhausted, and if it wished it could escalate. The war is being fought almost exclusively on Ukraine territory, and many of the weapons are being supplied on the express condition that they are used only there and not against Russians in Russia. I don't know how it ends, but these things always do. If I had to gamble, looking at the attitudes of all the players, I would say that Russia will eventually prevail in Ukraine, although there will be no peace and it will remain a running sore for them. To the west, from the Baltic to the Black Sea, a new iron curtain will come down, as difficult to negotiate as the old one was, but to the east of Finland, the Baltic States (for now although they will be increasingly nervous), Poland, Hungary (which will try to sit both sides to some extent), Romania and Moldova. I don't see Ukraine in NATO. I really can't envisage Russia ever agreeing to it. It's another reason why they are in no hurry. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Phantom Posted July 19, 2023 Share Posted July 19, 2023 31 minutes ago, Roxanne said: Russia has increased the age of enlistment to 70. They must be seriously running out of young meat. Imagine being a couple of months off retirement and discovering yourself in a truck, wearing fatigues en route to Ukraine. The life expectancy for a Russian male is 65! The Ukrainians will ensure this is further reduced. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
woolley Posted July 19, 2023 Share Posted July 19, 2023 1 minute ago, The Phantom said: Nope, they are definitely waiting for them. To suggest it has stalled, would be to suggest it has got going. It hasn't. As @P.K. notes, they are probing, testing and still haven't deployed a significant amount of their reserve. They do need to get a bit of a move on though before the Autumn comes. Following the daily reports and tactical maps, they are slowly, steadily and undeniably gaining ground almost every day, whilst hitting the Russian supply hubs and command posts. The real risk to the North would be if and when Ukrainian breaks through and deploys their reserves to the East/South. This would then be the time for the artists formerly known as Wagner to have a punt in the North from Belarus. Interesting response from Russia last night following the Kerch attack and them pulling out of the grain deal. Turkey has said they would provide escort across the Black Sea which is a significant embarrassment, so Russia hit Odessa port, where most of the grain is leaving. Considering most of this goes to Africa, and Putin is trying to court them away from the West, it's a curious yet obviously spiteful move. I hope you are right, but your point about the risk to the north is pertinent. No point in inching forward to the east and south if the Russkies have marched on Kyiv. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
woolley Posted July 19, 2023 Share Posted July 19, 2023 @The Phantom Do you have a theory as to how this looks medium to long term? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Phantom Posted July 19, 2023 Share Posted July 19, 2023 7 minutes ago, woolley said: @The Phantom Do you have a theory as to how this looks medium to long term? Russia have lost. They just can't accept it yet. What are they now fighting for? The initial rationale was to de-militarise Ukraine and limit the expansion of NATO. So far they have successfully ensured that Ukraine has actually become significantly more militarised and NATO has now expanded in the Baltic. Ukraine are motivated, well trained and well equipped. Russia just has numbers. I think Ukraine will have to concede some of the land to the East. It's just too close to Russia to take easily. This will then become some sort of buffer-zone. I can't see how Russia can hold Crimea if Ukraine break through in the South. I don't think the Kerch bridge will be completely destroyed. You have to give your enemy a way to escape. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malik Posted July 19, 2023 Share Posted July 19, 2023 (edited) 2 hours ago, The Phantom said: The life expectancy for a Russian male is 65! The Ukrainians will ensure this is further reduced. https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2014/04/01/the-data-are-in-life-under-putin-is-a-continuous-downward-spiral-into-despair/ I remember looking at the age/happiness curves in the above 2014 article. Life for Russians never looked good back then. Edited July 19, 2023 by Malik Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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