Albert Tatlock Posted July 19, 2023 Share Posted July 19, 2023 I think Russia will carry this on till the 2024 U.S. election...and when Trump gets nowhere, settle for a demilitarised zone in the East of Ukraine (U.N. troops perhaps)...followed by Ukraine joining NATO and the EU. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
woolley Posted July 19, 2023 Share Posted July 19, 2023 (edited) 8 hours ago, The Phantom said: Russia have lost. They just can't accept it yet. What are they now fighting for? The initial rationale was to de-militarise Ukraine and limit the expansion of NATO. So far they have successfully ensured that Ukraine has actually become significantly more militarised and NATO has now expanded in the Baltic. Ukraine are motivated, well trained and well equipped. Russia just has numbers. I think Ukraine will have to concede some of the land to the East. It's just too close to Russia to take easily. This will then become some sort of buffer-zone. I can't see how Russia can hold Crimea if Ukraine break through in the South. I don't think the Kerch bridge will be completely destroyed. You have to give your enemy a way to escape. If winning was expected to be a matter of riding into the streets of Kyiv in glory to be welcomed by the people as liberators and feted with garlands of flowers, then they have not won. They have also precipitated Finland's and Sweden's accession to NATO, which is clearly not optimal for them. All a big nasty surprise to Putin, no doubt, who probably thought it would be another Budapest or Prague from back in Soviet times. A bit of a hullabaloo from the West, then business as usual, and on to Nord Stream 2. I wonder in passing if America would have kicked off quite as vigorously had it not been so concerned about Europe becoming dependent on Russian gas. With US LNG coming online, Uncle Sam would much prefer to supply that need himself - at a price which we are all paying. Ukraine is motivated, although how well trained and equipped for the huge job in hand is yet to be tested to the limit. Russia is also scaling up military production to a war footing and has been for some time. I wouldn't underestimate the value of numbers, and nor would I expect Putin et al to cave in the face of Western sanctions. They have stuff to sell that the world wants to buy. The world is a lot bigger than just the West nowadays, and Putin sees US/European multinationals pulling out and abandoning their assets to his cronies as a bonus. He thinks the influence of the West on Russian society is decadent cultural hegemony that's best done away with. When questioned, he said it was "probably for the best". I hope the counteroffensive can reach the Sea of Azov, but the Russians are very well dug in. They know they have to hold the south and east to defend Crimea. There is much national pride at stake here, and I think they will hold the line, although it will be messy for both sides. I don't agree that the counteroffensive has hardly started. I think there is dismay behind the scenes at the lack of progress, and the minuscule advances to date, although I would like to be proven wrong. A majority of the Crimean population is ethnic Russian and speaks the language. It was a part of Soviet Russia until 1954, and personally, I will be astonished if the peninsula ever reverts to Ukraine. I don't think we are going to see the Russians hightailing it over the Kerch Bridge, to be honest. Maybe some deal will be done based on ceding lands east of the Dnipro, and recognising the 2014 annexation of Crimea. Ukraine won't like it, but in the real world it might be the best that's achievable. I would be very surprised if the Russians ever signed up to anything that put Ukraine in NATO, but then I don't think NATO is knocked out with that idea in any case. So neither side will be happy, and it will be a very uneasy peace. Just my crystal ball gazing of course. Edited July 19, 2023 by woolley couple of typos 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
woolley Posted July 19, 2023 Share Posted July 19, 2023 58 minutes ago, Albert Tatlock said: I think Russia will carry this on till the 2024 U.S. election...and when Trump gets nowhere, settle for a demilitarised zone in the East of Ukraine (U.N. troops perhaps)...followed by Ukraine joining NATO and the EU. Hope you're right, Albert. Doubt it very much, and certainly won't let go of Crimea. Not NATO either. Partition with western Ukraine joining EU, maybe, at a stretch. I just don't think Russia is in that much of a hurry. Patience is in their DNA. (IMO). 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
woolley Posted July 19, 2023 Share Posted July 19, 2023 1 hour ago, Malik said: https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2014/04/01/the-data-are-in-life-under-putin-is-a-continuous-downward-spiral-into-despair/ I remember looking at the age/happiness curves in the above 2014 article. Life for Russians never looked good back then. Oh look. You've woken God up again. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malik Posted July 19, 2023 Share Posted July 19, 2023 13 minutes ago, woolley said: Oh look. You've woken God up again. Aren’t you and Albert the same person? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roxanne Posted July 19, 2023 Share Posted July 19, 2023 3 minutes ago, Malik said: Aren’t you and Albert the same person? Aren’t you and TJ the same person? 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roxanne Posted July 19, 2023 Share Posted July 19, 2023 1 hour ago, Albert Tatlock said: think Russia will carry this on till the 2024 U.S. election.. I agree. I think Putin is banking on Trump getting somewhere rather than nowhere. If the worst happens and he gets in then frankly my dear I think we are all fucked. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
woolley Posted July 19, 2023 Share Posted July 19, 2023 34 minutes ago, Malik said: Aren’t you and Albert the same person? Of course, and everyone else too. There's only me and thee. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roxanne Posted July 19, 2023 Share Posted July 19, 2023 And I’m not very sure about you. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
woolley Posted July 19, 2023 Share Posted July 19, 2023 52 minutes ago, Roxanne said: And I’m not very sure about you. And there'll only be thee when I get me pants on. The old ones are the best. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malik Posted July 19, 2023 Share Posted July 19, 2023 3 hours ago, woolley said: Of course, and everyone else too. There's only me and thee. 52 minutes ago, Roxanne said: And I’m not very sure about you. Yes I’ve worked out a few are not you, though I’ve clearly not worked out everybody. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
woolley Posted July 19, 2023 Share Posted July 19, 2023 1 minute ago, Malik said: Yes I’ve worked out a few are not you, though I’ve clearly not worked out everybody. Damn. You've sussed out that I'm Roxanne too now. As well as Albert Tatlock and Stephen Fry. This really is most clumsy of me. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Albert Tatlock Posted July 19, 2023 Share Posted July 19, 2023 3 minutes ago, Malik said: Yes I’ve worked out a few are not you, though I’ve clearly not worked out everybody. I'm Spartacus. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zarley Posted July 30, 2023 Share Posted July 30, 2023 1 hour ago, Roxanne said: Putin says he does not reject peace talks. What is he on? Seriously? Did you mean to link to a news article? Asking because your link connects to this thread. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roxanne Posted July 30, 2023 Share Posted July 30, 2023 23 minutes ago, Zarley said: Did you mean to link to a news article? Asking because your link connects to this thread. I’ve had to delete it. I tried 3 times and it kept linking back to here. It’s obviously user error but I can’t find where I’m going wrong. Anyhoo… BBC news reports that Poutine does not rule out peace talks. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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