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On 7/19/2023 at 1:25 PM, The Phantom said:

Russia have lost.  They just can't accept it yet. 

What are they now fighting for?  The initial rationale was to de-militarise Ukraine and limit the expansion of NATO.  So far they have successfully ensured that Ukraine has actually become significantly more militarised and NATO has now expanded in the Baltic. 

Ukraine are motivated, well trained and well equipped.  Russia just has numbers. 

I think Ukraine will have to concede some of the land to the East.  It's just too close to Russia to take easily.  This will then become some sort of buffer-zone.  

I can't see how Russia can hold Crimea if Ukraine break through in the South.  I don't think the Kerch bridge will be completely destroyed.  You have to give your enemy a way to escape. 

I suspect that Zelensky has pointed out to the NATO allies how difficult it is to advance against well prepared positions. The basic military doctrine is that you need at least times three and probably times four than the number of defenders in firepower and men to assault an enemy position. This is because the attackers will suffer three to four times the casualties than the defenders.

So Zelensky upped the ante by playing the "F16" card.

However taining and familiarisation takes time before you can cut someone loose in a $60+ million high performance piece of kit.

The Himars was a bit of a game changer because it goes against the Red Army doctrine of saturation fire to hit what you can. As Himars has shown one round that hits is worth any number that misses. It has proved very effective. But it will take more than that.

So I suspect that if anything gets Russia to the negotiating table it will be F16 in numbers. Which is probably why they are now being sent.

 

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25 minutes ago, Passing Time said:

Putin said there could be no ceasefire while the Ukrainian army was on the offensive, here's a suggestion then Putin. Withdraw your troops and they wouldn't have to go on the offensive...

That’s exactly what I thought. Saying he wouldn’t reject peace talks? There’s an extremely simple way to bring peace.

BBC news reporting that Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky has warned war is coming back to Russia after a drone attack on the capital Moscow.

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  • 2 weeks later...
46 minutes ago, P.K. said:

Those are rather brilliant. 

I'll have to find out if Father Phantom was staring down T-72s in Berlin in the 70s.  Would make a pretty good Christmas prezzie. 

Seems to be a bit of momentum building out there over the last week or so.  Significant increase in attacks on Russian logistical hubs, bridges, boats etc. 

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  • 2 weeks later...

Oh you've got to laugh. Who would have expected that. 

Well one less murderous so-and-so, but then again another murderous so-and-so must be feeling in a good mood tonight. 

Putin, you have too many enemies to kill them off one by one. 

The sooner you are suicidal in a bunker the better. 

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I wonder if Wagner had a decent Succession Plan? Very remiss if they haven't which, let's face it, is no way to run a modern business...

Right now I suspect it's squeaky bottom time for Lukashenko what with a large, heavily-armed and now leaderless Wagner group currently in his country looking for gainful employment...

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