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10 minutes ago, Passing Time said:

Should Russia decide to escalate, then the best you could hope for is the chance to kiss your arse goodbye 

Putin already gave a clue to his aims before invading Ukraine. He wants NATO back to its 1997 borders in return for peace. He wants US tanks "off his lawn".

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19 hours ago, woolley said:

Putin already gave a clue to his aims before invading Ukraine. He wants NATO back to its 1997 borders in return for peace. He wants US tanks "off his lawn".

His aims are not what the rest of Europe wants 

Edited by Passing Time
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Sweden, Finland, Poland & the Baltics are most hawkish. For historical reasons they fear and distrust Russia the most. The Brits, Irish, French, Spanish, Dutch, Belgians, — I think they would fight to defend a rules based Europe.

The further south and the further east you go, the less enthusiasm you'll find amongst the general public for resisting Russia. Bulgarians and Serbs in particular see Russians as their historical allies, even if their governments know which side their bread is buttered on.

Germany is a very pacifist country, in polls, only a small minority of Germans say they would fight to defend their country. They're apparently quite happy to let others do that for them, but they will stump up the cash.

On the other hand, Hungary and Slovakia have Putin-friendly governments and many countries have well-funded far-left or far-right Putin friendly parties.

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  • 2 weeks later...

 

Russia announces the latest success in its conversion of 'surface warships to submarines programme'.

"We are world leaders in this technology" announced Rear Admiral Gopnik, before leaving the Admiralty building via a fourth-floor window.

  • Haha 1
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So is the west going to pour more hardware in there? Russkies have beefed up their military manufacturing, and are importing from North Korea just as the Ukrainians are getting low on ammo. There is a counter-counter-offensive starting by the Red Army tank brigades. It would seem that if nothing more is to go in, then what has already been sent has been wasted along with tens of thousands of lives. Or are we seeing the start of a push to force Ukraine to negotiate? How do you negotiate with a re-energised enemy that still fancies its chances of getting the whole country eventually?

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1 hour ago, woolley said:

So is the west going to pour more hardware in there? Russkies have beefed up their military manufacturing, and are importing from North Korea just as the Ukrainians are getting low on ammo. There is a counter-counter-offensive starting by the Red Army tank brigades. It would seem that if nothing more is to go in, then what has already been sent has been wasted along with tens of thousands of lives. Or are we seeing the start of a push to force Ukraine to negotiate? How do you negotiate with a re-energised enemy that still fancies its chances of getting the whole country eventually?

They're not going anywhere.  The Orcs are just throwing away equipment, if anything in a more blasé way recently.  Literally 1000s of tanks and armoured vehicles destroyed.  Russia doesn't have a remotely capable military anymore. 

Russia still fancies it's chances, but it's delusional and not going to gain anything significant anytime soon.  For them, it is a stalemate at least for the next year.  Russia won't try anything hostile with their army against anyone in NATO whilst this conflict is still ongoing, they just don't have the manpower or equipment. 

The EU members of NATO know this and won't push for surrender/negotiations, they know we need to keep them occupied in the short term.  However, if the Donald gets in, then he might push for it, it seems fairly clear that he has no interest in the US continuing to contribute to NATO.  Will the EU NATO members still stand by their Article 5 obligations if the US isn't going to back them up.   Currently without the US, NATO would still outgun the Russians, but everyone would have to get onboard. 

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2 hours ago, woolley said:

So is the west going to pour more hardware in there? Russkies have beefed up their military manufacturing, and are importing from North Korea just as the Ukrainians are getting low on ammo. There is a counter-counter-offensive starting by the Red Army tank brigades. It would seem that if nothing more is to go in, then what has already been sent has been wasted along with tens of thousands of lives. Or are we seeing the start of a push to force Ukraine to negotiate? How do you negotiate with a re-energised enemy that still fancies its chances of getting the whole country eventually?

Wouldn't it be nice if Russia would accept the sovereignty of Ukraine?  Amazing how you seem to think some countries have more of a right to sovereignty than others. 

You seem to believe that Ukrainians should surrender their country, or significant parts of it, to a hostile force who started this whole bloody thing in the first place.  

You don't negotiate with Russia.  You keep backing Ukraine with military aid and support wherever possible.  Even Orban has fallen into line within the EU now (although still posturing in NATO).  

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On 2/2/2024 at 4:51 PM, manxman1980 said:

Wouldn't it be nice if Russia would accept the sovereignty of Ukraine?  Amazing how you seem to think some countries have more of a right to sovereignty than others. 

You seem to believe that Ukrainians should surrender their country, or significant parts of it, to a hostile force who started this whole bloody thing in the first place.  

You don't negotiate with Russia.  You keep backing Ukraine with military aid and support wherever possible.  Even Orban has fallen into line within the EU now (although still posturing in NATO).  

I'd be obliged if you could point me to anywhere I have posted the opinions you attribute to me in the first two paragraphs. Of course it would be lovely if Russia would accept the sovereignty of Ukraine, but they won't. I believe that Russia should leave Ukraine in peace, but they won't.

There's a difference between idealism and realism. The UK went to war in 1939 because Germany invaded Poland. Our aim was to free them, but when the war finished after an existential struggle for our own freedom, Poland wasn't free. All we had succeeded in doing was delivering them from Hitler to Stalin. Nobody suggested that we continue Eastwards until the Red Army was back on Russian soil. Everyone had by then had their fill of war and was exhausted.

By all means, we can keep backing Ukraine, but for how long, to what extent and to what end? If you think the Russians are simply going to give up and go home, you are dreaming.

ETA: In another thread you questioned if I had picked up a history book. I think I would mirror the same question back to you here.

Edited by woolley
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3 hours ago, woolley said:

I'd be obliged if you could point me to anywhere I have posted the opinions you attribute to me in the first two paragraphs. Of course it would be lovely if Russia would accept the sovereignty of Ukraine, but they won't. I believe that Russia should leave Ukraine in peace, but they won't.

You imply it by suggesting that Ukraine should be left to Russia. 

3 hours ago, woolley said:

There's a difference between idealism and realism. The UK went to war in 1939 because Germany invaded Poland. Our aim was to free them, but when the war finished after an existential struggle for our own freedom, Poland wasn't free.

Britain failed to do anything when Germany annexed Austria and Britian, along with others, gave Hitler land in Czechoslovakia at a meeting that country was not invited too.

Britain went to war to protect its own interests and not some noble quest to free Europe of Hitler.

"Germany represented a direct threat to British security and the security of its empire. Accepting German domination of Europe had grave implications for British status and survival. Britain went to war in 1939 to defend the balance of power in Europe and safeguard Britain's position in the world."

https://www.iwm.org.uk/history/how-europe-went-to-war-in-1939#:~:text=Germany represented a direct threat,Britain's position in the world.

 

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6 hours ago, woolley said:

There's a difference between idealism and realism. The UK went to war in 1939 because Germany invaded Poland. Our aim was to free them, but when the war finished after an existential struggle for our own freedom, Poland wasn't free. All we had succeeded in doing was delivering them from Hitler to Stalin. Nobody suggested that we continue Eastwards until the Red Army was back on Russian soil. Everyone had by then had their fill of war and was exhausted.

In this you are completely wrong. Well, almost completely. Except for the blindingly obvious "There's a difference between idealism and realism" of course...

Even 954024 Gunner Milligan knew that WW2 would turn Russia into a post war giant.

So did General Patton:

"Let's keep our boots polished and bayonets sharpened, and present a picture of force and strength to the Russians. This is the only language that they understand and respect. If you fail to do this, then I would like to say that we have had a victory over the Germans and have disarmed them, but we have lost the war..."

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